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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Great now tell us how much 37GW in interconnectors would cost

    start reading here about Celtic interconnector that’s only 700MW and is already up to 1.6bn in price from 1 with completion date pushed to 2026



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    France the poster boy for Nuclear power. It is building ones since the 1960s. Costs there too are rising per recent Bloomberg article.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Except if someone builds 6.5 GW of nuclear you get 6.5GW all the time

    If you build 6.5GW of wind you get this (Ireland last 30 days)



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Nobody is going to build a nuclear plant in Ireland



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Then stop pretending to care about solving climate change



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Building a nuclear plan will not solve climate change



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    But 37 GW of offshore wind plus unspecified amount of storage plus unspecified amount interconnection will?

    Remind us again why did Eamon set such a target for 2050?

    If it’s not to help solve climate change why the hell are we bothering with this expensive and monumentally stupid policy?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,226 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …how much has over exposure to international energy markets cost us in terms of inflation?

    …renewables alone more than likely wont be capable of producing all our energy needs, so the alternatives are either fossil fuels or nuclear, i.e. pick a poison, or your kids and grand kids are screwed!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Fossil fuel is becoming rarer and will definitely cost more including the carbon costs the other side never wants to mention here. As for nuclear here it's a dead duck, probably ok to build an interconnector from France and take theirs when needed. By the way Germany is forging ahead with wind power (strange when it's such a bad option)

    https://orsted.com/en/media/news/2024/06/first-wind-turbine-installed-at-borkum-riffgrund



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,226 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup if we continue with fossil fuels, we re screwed, or your kids and grand kids really, and not just for environmental reasons, nuclear is no go cause we re simply not open to it, but as you said, we re happy enough to outsource its risks to other countries, but what happens if relations tank in the future causing interconnect disconnections, whats happens then!

    …dont worry, nuclear wont be here in a hurry, but we truly need to start preparing as best as possible for your kids and grand kids, so we truly do need to get serious regarding nuclear….



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    That is not how electricity production and usage works, the more this thread continues the more it’s obvious that some people are putting misplaced hopes into something they don’t understand and was severely missold to them.

    Severe economic, physical and engineering issues are just waved away



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    France announced February 2022 that they will build 6 new NPPs and are considering building a futher 8. Not difficult to see why. Their household electricity charges are half ours ,and they are the largest exporters of electricity in the E.U. which earns them €2 Billion a year thanks to nuclear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    2050 on Eirgrid predictions we will require 14.5 GW. The 2050 proposed plan of 2050 will result in 18.5 GW nameplate wind capacity for domestic use. With those wind turbines fixed turbines the capacity factor will be ~42%. That would give 7.7 GW. The cost for fixed turbines alone would be €166 Billion for not much more that 50% of our requirements.

    Taking you two figure of €7 Bn. and €11 Bn. per GW for nuclear, although where the €11 Bn. comes from is a mystery. Finland`s Olkiluoto 3 is 1.6 GW and even being years late and over budget still onlt cost €11 Bn.. That is less that €7 Bn. per GW, but no matter lets go with your €7 & €11 Billion.

    Nuclear has a capacity factor of 95% so to generate 14.5 GW would require nameplate capacity of 15.25 GW. @ €7 Bn. the total cost would be €106 Bn. ( €60Bn. less for 100% of our requirements compared to just over 50% for wind)

    @ €11Bn.per GW the total cost would be €168 Bn. (€2 Bn. more than wind but would provide 100% of our requirements compared to just over 50% for wind)

    The capital cost for nuclear is also a one off with a lifspan of 60 years. This wind plan would cost €166 Bn every 20 years. Even using the highest figures you provided, this 37 wind/hydrogen plan compared to nuclear doesn`t make sense for the cost of the turbines alone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,509 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Can we move on from wind/nuclear? We need legislation changes and a massive campaign pro nuclear before even considering building one. Probably 20/30 years away if ever. Wind is a known and has many drawbacks as discussed to death at this stage. Offshore increases the challenges and costs. Hydrogen production is a fantasy from excess wind. Selling excess wind via interconnectors is another fantasy when power is generated cheaper elsewhere. In addition, the wind projects aren't costed. Comparing Ireland Inc. building wind/nuclear/sandcastles with other countries is another fallacy. We'd never compete on price as we're expensive as **** to do anything in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    So what's your option then? If it's neither wind not nuclear what do we have?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    We can’t the choices are

    A. Do nothing

    B. Kill national herd and destroy air travel and continue raising taxes upon taxes

    C. Spend hundreds of billions on wind and storage

    D. Nuclear option

    Greens/environmentalists can’t continue to claim to have policies that solve climate change while ignoring better policies



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    THat post was too a poster who keeps plugging his ears on the cost of wind while pulling costs out of his behind on wind and nuclear.

    Based on U.K. prices pre the jump in costs I calculated the cost of this 37GW plan based on all turbines being fixed and did not include the 25% of turbines that are supposed to be part of it, the 50% more expensive floating variety, and the capital cost was €166 Bn.

    Equinor won a contract for the Empire 816 MW wind farm for New York in 2019 for a strike price of $118, but pulled out because of the increase in costs. They recently renegotiated and got it raised to $155. (Ironically the present strike price for Hinkley C that greens are fond of calling "the most expensive power plant ever built") The estimated cost in 2019 was $3 Bn. Just going by the two strike prices the cost per GW is now €4.52Bn. 37 GW would be €167 Bn.

    Mitsui and Northland Power have just signed a deal with Taiwan to build a 1GW fixed offshore wind plan where Northland has said will cost $6.5 Bn. (over €6 Bn per GW)

    It`s time those that are coming totally unrealistic fantasy figures started dealing with reality and recognised the complete financial insanity of what they are supporting.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Decades from now when kids and grandkids ask why we spend billions and endebted them and achieved little to nothing just like the amount of electricity generated by rusting turbines littering the coasts

    Point em to this thread



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    If it is so unrealistically expensive then why are Governments around the world still pursuing it at all? Are they all blind? Or does it make sense down the line.

    Nuclear won't be an option here (based here)



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The country has moved on in many many ways since Carnsore.

    A Think Ireland survey a few years ago, and if there has been anything to counteract it since I have not seen it, found that 43% were in favour of having our own nuclear, 43% opposed and the rest don`t knows.

    Of the 18 - 24 year age group, 60% were in favour.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,509 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    That's a great question and there's no simple answer as has been demonstrated for pages and pages. We should invest in wind, but we should know the costs before doing it. Eamon Ryan gave an estimated €100bn cost a few months back. That seems low to me, and many others here would agree. And that 100bn was only for the turbines, no costs for getting the power from them, the land infrastructure, the ongoing maintenance. We cannot, 100% rely on wind power for the country. We must have reliable backups. Currently that's gas and there's no reason we shouldn't continue with that. We probably do need to look at nuclear as another source. The more sources we have, the better.

    One of the problems with offshore wind will be the maintenance. Just the sea salt alone would destroy gears/bearings/etc in the turbines. The maintenance costs are way higher for offshore, and the lifetime is 20/25 years. Then you have to start again so it's an ongoing capital cost. Unlike Turlough Hill, or Moneypoint, or reactors where there's an initial capital cost and maintenance then for decades.

    My own position is we spread the generation across many forms, build a bigger grid with reliable sources (primary & backup) and not be holding our country back by curtailing energy to users. But first and foremost, we need to see the maths



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,648 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Green hydrogen technology is one possible solution, though not fully proven.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    How many Governments around the world are planning what we are for 2050, a national grid that would be reliant on nothing other than wind power and hydrogen that would not even come close to providing our projected 2050 requirements ?

    I have posted the figures from verifiable sources around the world on how the cost of the offshore section of that plan alone makes no sense, either presently or anywhere down the line. You nor anyone else, and that includes the Government Minister driving this plan or anyone else in Government, have all failed or simply refused to give any realistic verifiable costs.

    Esentially what the Irish Government is doing, and they are not alone in this globally, is kicking the can down the road by privatising our electricity generation where they will all be living comfortably off state pensions before their citizens realise just how much it is costing them with a supply that is intermittent and unreliable. The only plus from this plan is that the country will be so bankrupt that we will not be able to pay those pensions. But then they are probably so protected by law we will still end up having to fork out using borrowed money to do so.

    No idea how you believe "Nuclear won`t be an option here" If you intended putting up a link then it didn`t work,



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,707 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    From memory the two problems it has is a poor round-trip efficiency, and the relative difficulty storing hydrogen compared to other gases. It has its place though



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,153 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Prices from all energy sources are rising

    'Sir, – In response to Dr Pat Morrissey's letter (March 3rd),
    I would agree that nuclear power has a part to play in addressing
    climate change. I agree that countries that have a nuclear programme
    should keep their nuclear power stations working as long as possible as
    they are a low-carbon source of electricity.

    However,
    I only see nuclear playing a relatively small role. Price and delays in
    construction still are common; for example, the Olkiluoto reactor in
    Finland was planned to start working in 2009 but now the target date is
    the end of 2018. The original estimated cost was €3.2 billion but in
    2012 the cost had risen to €8.5 billion at least.

    The
    planned Hinkley Point C reactor in the UK is planned to start operating
    in roughly 2025. This is unlikely given the usual delays with nuclear
    power station construction. If it is built on time and within budget
    (£20 billion) the cost per kWh (unit of electricity), which is
    guaranteed for 35 years, will result in consumers paying more than £30
    billion over market price over the 35-year life of the contract. This
    cost per unit of electricity is more than wind and solar power.'

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/true-cost-of-nuclear-power-1.3415825



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Agh FFS you are now posting a letter from a randommer to the Irish Times from 2018 as some kind of proof to validate you opinion. If you cannot come up with verifiable data to do so then stop the messing. It`s tedious and time wasting replying to nonsense.

    As too his views on Olkilouto 3. I have already shown that even 5 years after that letter was published the finished cost for 1.6 GW was €11 Bn. With a capacity factor of 95% based on Okilouto 3, nuclear would provide all of our 14.5 GW projected need for 2050 at a cost of 167 Bn, the same as just the capital expenditure for fixed offshore turbines alone and would be a once off 60 year capital expenditure due to its lifespan, compared to the capital expenditure alone for wind turbines with a 20 year lifespan that would result in it being 3 times higher.

    For Hinkley C, the run-to for those that favour this wind plan with it being the most expensive example they can find while ignoring any others, the recent strike price between Equinor and New York for the Empire 1 wind farm is now the same as the strike price for Hinkley C.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,064 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It`s not a good option for any number of reasons, even outside of whether it would work to scale, and no costs for what it would entail. If you want to produce hydrogen then the most inefficient way of doing so is by using intermittent energy sources for electrolysis. Even then producing it results in a 25% drop in energy (53 KWh of electricity is required to produce I Kg of hydrogen which holds 39.4 KWh of electricity). A futher 10% is lost in compression and storage and a further 30% when burned to convert it back to electricity.

    It is highly volatile and rusts pipes and seals and leaks from it result in water being trapped in the upper atmosphere raising methane levels. Maybe that is why greens wanted cattle culled, to make room for methane from hydrogen. Anyway it cannot be pumped through the present gas pipilines

    Burning it is not exactly environmentally friendly either. That produces NOx which along with causing smog, not great for public health, also causes acid rain. Nasty stuff.

    There is also the consideration that half of the electricity from that 2050 plan is supposed to go to hydrogen production, with the other half towards domestic consumption. Nobody other than the consummer is going to be paying for that, which would not only double their electricity bills at a single stroke, but result in them having to pay for any of the electricity they used generated from hydrogen on top



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