Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

you can have the same fertility rate and yet a reduced house formation size. Your assumption is both parents live together which is not necessarily always the case.

Do working families have more, less or equal amounts of children vs non-working families? Non working families would mean neither parent works.

As the cost increases to raise a family, i would expect that working families will have fewer children, not more.

They are accounting for the deficit that already exists and that by 2030, we would be 10% above the National Planning Strategy in terms of population. 5.9 million vs the plan of 5.3 million, which we have already exceeded.

Also, ireland's average household size is 2.6 persons; Way above average for europe, due to the fact that over 85% of our housing stock is actual houses, rather than apartments.

Apartments only seem to get built in Dublin.

well to use the actual wouldn’t be an accurate way to calculate demand as actual will include all the people living at home trying to find a place to buy but can’t because of the lack of supply. To use the actual you would be underestimating what is needed.

£200 to £250 was the going rate for a small single room in a decent house in Galway in 1999, back when you had to queue on Church Lane outside the Galway Advertiser offices to get a copy of the list of rooms available adds at lunchtime on Thursday before the paper even went to print.

Rent has definitely outpaced general inflation but your €300pm in 2015 would have represented stagnation for a decade and a half so I'm not surprised it went up quickly as soon as it could.

Local govt in Dublin apprently looking to increase property tax from 2025, after the GE.

Will Dublin see any tangible benefit to the increased tax or simply lose the central funding of services as an offset?

I am going to go with the latter.

3.8% rise in asking prices in Q2

sale price increase maybe not as much, but still sign of prices rising

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/house-prices-rise-by-3-8-per-cent-in-second-quarter-of-year/

Properties guiding at €320,000 are routinely selling for €350,000 simply because the buyer is under time pressure due to a notice to quit,” said managing director of REA McGee, Anthony McGee.

Yeh, renters paying nose-bleed rents are managing to find an extra 30k down the back of the couch 'cos they're getting evicted…🙄

If they bid 30k more than the asking price then thats the market price. We went more than that over. Every house that we didnt win on we were also bidding 50k or more over asking, yet they all went for more.

I love the way people write about the landlords selling up yet dont write about why and didnt write about the elephant in the room when rent controls were introduced, or even when they were "enhanced".

Its almost like the media are afraid to print facts and research.

They are serving their client well in that case, I suspect few properties have an actual/secretive price (I’m not sure what that is), at which vendors sell even if people are willing to bid more. Most, if not all sellers see advertised guide price as just that, a guide, the actual selling price will be whatever the highest bid is, usually.

I called into a friend at the weekend who lives in Westmeath.

They are paying €950 pm for a 4 bed house. Its a fantastic house. just outside the town and about half an acre of a garden surrounding it. I think it would probably sell for €450k. Twice that if it was in Dublin.

They have been in the house about 10 years. Their landlord recently asked them to do or pay for some of the garden maintenance themselves. cut the grass themselves basically because it was costing him too much to get someone in to do it as he always has.

They were clever and knowing he could only put up the rent 2% said to just add the cost of the grass to the rent instead.

They were surprised that their landlord has now issued them notice to move out as they are selling. They were raging about it so i sat down with them and did some quick beer mat very rough calculations to show them that the landlord would be stupid to hang on to that house. I believe they built it to live in but had to go abroad to work and havent come back yet, but plan to at some point.

So lets say the house is worth €450k (no idea if they have a mortgage or how much or how much tax they pay, but doesnt really matter).

They can continue to receive €950pm upping it by 2% per year. Or sell it and buy 2 apartments in Dublin (for either the cash or mortgages with the same value as the outstanding mortgage if they have one) and rent them out for €2000 (give or take) each pm.

€950pm against €4000pm for switching up the money tied up in that house. I know what I would be doing. Well actually I would be buying ETFs not rentals, but you get what i mean.

This couple still cannot see why their landlord is nuts not to sell. They think the landlord should be happy with what he has and leave them be. And they are already talking about overholding and not actually looking for somewhere to live for their family in the time they have to look, which is a long time to be honest.

The reality is that its a sh!t investment for their landlord and they should be looking at better options.

My own sister just sold an investment property and bought an apartment in Spain for similar reasons. Better use of the invested capital.

I don't see how you come to the underpricing conclusion, given prices are up double digits percentage wise in many markets in 12 months

Hilarious, your friends are so arrogant!! They were already getting it for next to nothing yet Karma came to bite them.

I hope the government will implement more stringent actions to deal with these chancers who overhold. If that will roll out, we will see a less toxic rental market out there which will work better for everyone.