Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Options
1115011511153115511561159

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    You're prediction is based on every negative factor coming to the fore for Ireland and ignoring the reality that the likihood of this happening isn't very high based on recent history. It conviently ignores all the negative factors affecting SA, such as they have a brand new attack and defence coach and the fact that traditionally SA don't start seasons very well (likely because a lot of their players play in Japan and around the world and usually need time to either get up to speed and/or build continuity again). But I find it convenient how you've picked out all the negative factors that could affect Ireland, which have yet to be proven if they either ARE going to affect Ireland and/or how much of an affect they are going to have, but then conveniently ignore any negative factor affecting SA, which have actually been proven to be an issue in the past, and the fact there is still question marks against settled Irish side if their attack/defence will click after such a short space of time together.

    In end I look you're argument which lacks analysis or objectivity and I look at the recent evidence and the odds and I find that the odds are looking ALOT more accurate in this case.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah…except absences and injuries absolutely have cost us before. We lost Nash early and then his replacement Frawley during the England game just during the 6N, which likely cost us that game. Our last 6N loss before that was in Paris in 2022 when we were without Johnny Sexton, which likely cost us that game.

    It's absolutely factual to say our playing group have huge mileage on the clock at this point in the season; when I look at the likely 23s for the first test by my reckoning the Irish players have considerably more miles on the clock. Average for the Irish first XV is 1,544 mins, with c. 1,385 average minutes for the likely 23.

    It's harder to get the mins for some of the South African players given how many of them play in Japan, but that in and of itself is proof of how easier a season a lot of those players have had. Guys like Cheslin Kolbe made 4 appearances this season domestically, versus the Irish players who've battled through a long, hard season and a 6N campaign.

    Claiming I'm not being objective in this analysis is an absolutely nonsensical take.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,511 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The three worst defeats in Farrell's head coaching career so far have been by 8, 11 and 23 points. Every other loss was within a score.

    I certainly wouldn't rule out us losing by 15 points, but I'd genuinely be quite surprised.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    I dont think losing Nash was what cost us in that game, it was going with a 6-2 split that cost us as once we lost all our back subs it meant we had to put a SH on the wing and overall it was a disaster. All that game proved was why the 6-2 split should NEVER be used again.

    I've still yet to see how losing Johnny cost us the game in 2022, Carbery got all his kicks and did his job well, our attack still functioned very well even without Sexton…that just feels like a convenient excuse where people say "look Sexton was out and Ireland lost, therefore Sexton must be the reason why" and its just not supported by any evidence.

    They may do but ultimately they'll have gotten some decent rest periods in-between and while it'll likely have a role to play I dont see it making that big a difference in the end, it might make a difference in the winning or losing of a 1 score game but it wont be difference between this being a 5 point game and a 15-20 point game unless Ireland just have a shocker.

    But this is why I think you arent being objective, you point to the milage but another way of looking at is are the SA players battled hardened going into this series and and the flip side the Irish players wont be rusty and will be able to go into this series all gun's blazing. If you were objective you also point to this side of the coin which is arguably a more likely scenario judging by how SA and Ireland have started their seasons over the last few seasons but for some reason you've chosen to use the side that totally favours SA.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    If Ireland have a off day, like they had v England & Scotland in the 6N, then we could get smashed by 15points ofcourse but as long as Ireland play well they should be in with a shot in both games.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You keep bandying around terms like evidence and facts, but they're pretty thin on the ground in your own arguments too.

    I don't know where you're going with your notions or insinuations that I'm being overly negative or pessimistic towards Ireland here; that isn't usually my approach.

    I'm simply calling this series as I see it, for the reasons I identified. I very much hope I'm wrong and that we deliver a great performance, but I think this is a series too far at the end of a long season.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    It's not really, I mean when you have to put a SH on the wing when you've gone with a 6/2 split then shouldn't that be evidence that going with a 6/2 split wasn't a good idea?

    Show me where my evidence is thin on the ground? I mean for example when we lost to France don't you think that maybe…just maybe…we lost to France because they are a really good team and were playing at home so the chances of losing that game were very possible regardless of who was at 10? I mean we were 2 point underdogs going into the game even before it was reported Sexton was out and considering we lost by 5 maybe we shouldn't be blaming Carbery and accept we just weren't good enough on the day, conceded far too much stupid penalties and were sloppy at the break down and got punished for it…

    Judging by the fact you are looking at all the evidence that will hurt Ireland chances and not the evidence that might be in their favour would indicate to me that you are being overly negative, maybe not as much as Iona but still.

    If the players are switched on it shouldn't because the excuses of this being a long season are for small teams, Ireland arent a small team so should be going into this expecting to give it their all and then see what happens.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,257 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    We lost by what 2pts vs England? Hardly getting smashed. SA aren't like NZ, they're not a team that can blow you away from counter attacks. I don't think we're going to capitulate if things don't go our way.

    It's a shame it's only a 2 test series. We've shown in the tours to Australia and NZ the ability to come back from a 1st test loss and win out.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm not generally a fan of the 6-2 split either, especially depending on the choice of the outside back cover on the bench, but you can't take one example of it not working and use that as a basis for saying it doesn't work as a concept, without analysing all the games where teams equally went with a 6-2 split and won, and giving equal due regard to those.

    With respect, you have absolutely no idea what "evidence" I'm looking at when I make my (entirely irrelevant) prediction as to Ireland's chances. I listed out the handful of most compelling reasons when I made my prediction above, but it's not an exhaustive list of all the things I've considered in forming that opinion.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    'Lacks analysis or objectivity'!! Brilliant.

    and 'recent evidence' has been turned on its head.

    few facts below.

    The Springbok will have a stronger side compared to what Ireland played against in the WC. Added to the fact that Ireland will now have a significantly weaker side.

    In SA now. Home. Its a factor. Altitude. It's real. No matter what Cullen or Farrell said/say. It's a significant factor. Underestimated by most.

    Ireland and Leinsters work rate at getting into attacking shape is what had sets them apart.

    Ireland's attack stuttered v Eng, v Scot & has regressed significantly at Leinster.

    Bulls kicked the ball (surprise!) expertly and Leinster were out of puff.

    That's the forte of Pollard (a former Bull) and le Roux (Bulls).

    Keenan and Park are integral to Ireland. & Incredibly fit.

    Tony Brown. One of the best. It'll still be kick heavy.

    And Jerry Flannery read Jones.

    I could go on but that's enough for today. Enjoy the games.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,257 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    It's a gimmick, and an unnecessary one at that. Did we need a 6-2 split to win a Grand Slam, or a series in NZ? I don't see any advantage to it at all, and I think it particularly undervalues the contribution of backs. Leinster could've done with being able to bring someone in the backs to spark a line break, more than they needed another backrow.

    The risk of it going wrong is far too high for any marginal benefit over a 5-3.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, as I said, I generally consider it an unnecessary gamble myself (and have said this previously) but still think the analysis above I was responding too was unnecessarily simplistic.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,511 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The Springbok will have a stronger side compared to what Ireland played against in the WC

    In what way?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    Yeah but with all due respect, England arent on par with SA or even close to it really. If we have the same level of performance SA will be much more punishing and wont be as forgiving in defence, even with a new attack and defence coach. The main challenge for Ireland is upfront if we can get parity or even close to parity we'll have every chance in the series as like you said SA arent like NZL when it comes to being ruthless.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    So as far as I can see, you've pointed to every single factor that benefits SA and pointed to every factor doesnt benefit Ireland and made you're conclusion based on that…very objective indeed!

    I dont really see much reason in even getting into a discussion about this as you clearly arent capable of being impartial.

    I suspect you'll keep the factors that don't favour SA as damage control if you end up having egg on your face.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    6-2 split works for teams that like to beat the opposition up front, like SA for example. For a team like Ireland its more important to be flexible which is why having a 5-3 is far more beneficial. I've yet to see the benefits of it tbh and if anything the risk is greater than the reward.

    I'm looking at the evidence you've presented as its the only evidence I can judge…I dont see why if you have other evidence why you havent presented it so all I can do is judge this evidence. When you consider how the season ended for the Irish provinces and how SA are going into this RWC as World Champs I cant help but feel a large portion of the reasons you back SA are emotive based because the evidence you showed isnt very convincing and is at best debatable.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,878 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I think if Ireland had Hansen/JOB fit they would go with a 5-3 spilt during the 6 nations. In this tour you have Hansen and Keenan out so again the options in the backs reduced. In the case of just getting the best players in the 23 you might have the 6-2 spilt again

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Okay, I honestly don't care this much about this argument. I gave my reasons and rationale, you disagree, whatever.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    I'd expect Ireland to lose this tour and I also expect Ireland to decline somewhat over the next year at least.

    Its not really about our talent but more that we relied on synergy imo between ireland and leinster's systems that doesn't exist any more and will get wider. That should start being apparent.

    In fact, i think one of the mistakes of the world cup was that we didn't as purely play that style post the NZ tour.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭RichieRich_89


    Whichever one of Ringrose or Henshaw isn't starting at 13 (assuming Aki is at 12) would be an excellent #23. Stockdale and Osborne would be good options too. McCloskey's done it in the past, but for me that only works if Henshaw starts at 12 and can move to outside centre if necessary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,257 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    We have JOB, Osborne and Frawley who can all play across the entire back line. Depending on who gets slotted for 15, 2 out of that 3 could be on the bench, along with a SH.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭Shehal


    This make's absolutely no sense. I think you are massively overthinking things.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭RichieRich_89


    I was pondering what the squad might look like for a summer tour next year while a lot of the players would be away with the Lions. I'd like to see them play Argentina. That would be a challenge in line with where Ireland now are.

    lh: Tom O'Toole, Jeremy Loughman, Jack Boyle

    h: Ronan Kelleher, Rob Herring, Tom Stewart

    th: Finlay Bealham, Oliver Jager, Scott Wilson

    sr: James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Thomas Ahern

    bs: Cormac Izuchukwu, Ryan Baird

    os: Will Connors, John Hodnett

    no. 8: Jack Conan, Nick Timoney

    sh: Craig Casey, Caolan Blade, Nathan Doak

    oh: Ciarán Frawley, Sam Prendergast, Harry Byrne

    lw: Jacob Stockdale, Shane Daly

    ic: Stuart McCloskey, Jamie Osborne

    oc: Robbie Henshaw, Stewart Moore

    rw: Calvin Nash, Jordan Larmour

    fb: Jimmy O'Brien

    Maybe Healy, O'Mahony and Murray would still be selected. They are playing next season, but it would probably be hanging on too long.

    The backrow could look quite different. Maybe Timoney is considered at openside. And McCann, Culhane or Gleeson could come into the mix.

    Scrumhalf is interesting. I'd like to see Patterson, Devine and Gunne taken on the EI tour. Could any of them then kick on into consideration for Ireland?

    Herring would be 35. If he had been phased out by then I'd say Lee Barron might be next up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,878 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    But if you look at the 23, which Farrell seems to do, as the best 23 he has available is a 6 -2 spilt more likely because we have better forwards compared to the backs

    Then he has to have 2 backs on the bench

    To me thats what he was doing in 6 nations



  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭CorneliusBrown


    Looking forward to this! Hope we smash em but worried we’ll fall short. I’m certain we’d win at least one of the matches if played at home tho



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,878 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Two good showing, hopefully one win and maybe identify one new player for the 23 would be a success



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,257 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    It amounts to wanting an extra backrower basically, perhaps in part due to POM not being capable of maintaining his game for a full 80. McCarthy and Baird/ Conan is sufficient cover across the back row imo. VdF and Doris are well capable of playing well for an entire match, as are Beirne and Ryan typically. For me, I think there would be more value in bringing on a fresh centre and outside back to exploit tired bodies towards the end of game.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,878 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    If you look at the options in the 6 nations the backs hadn't got huge talent sitting outside of the 23, Ringrose was injured, Hansen was out etc

    If Farrell had a full fit squad to pick from I think he would go 5-3 all the time like he did before. POM getting taken off is not an issue as they always seemed to take a backrow off…..

    I would prefer a 5-3, I dont like the 6-2 and we are just trying to copy a SA team whcih we are not, I dont think it worked at Leinster either



Advertisement