USA 2024 presidential election

I'm not sure. I just heard those figures on a podcast.

There's a massive amount of gouging that's driving inflation, simple as. Businesses are raking it in hand over fist and little has been done to address it.

The Democrats need to be more aggressive in their messaging linking this to Republican obstinacy and campaign on legislation to combat it.

Ever the problem, Dems bringing boxing gloves to a knife fight.

This right here is a huge problem for Biden:

Green is when Trump took office

Red is when Biden took office

That graph is a little bit out of date. Current average gasoline price in the US is $3.73

A lot of swing voters live in the suburbs and exurbs. These people are massively vehicle dependent and disproportionately driving gas guzzling trucks and SUVs so this price has a huge bearing on their household budgets.

I hope so, of course the Democrats have some insurmountable barriers, due to gerrymandering. NC is going from a 7-7 split to 11-3, doesn't bode well for the likelihood of gaining control of both Houses.

Considering that the MAGAts are into 'rolling coal,' I'd say no chance.

Christ almighty

I see that 538 have launched their Presidential Prediction model (currently 51/49 Biden). Interestingly enough Nate Silver left 538 a while back (ABC bought them out and slashed their budget) so he has nothing to do with this. Instead they hired G. Elliot Morris, who has done statistical modelling for the Economist in the past to work on this project. Nate Silver is soon going to launch his old model again (although he's putting it behind a paywall). The Economist also have their own model (currently 66/33 Trump).

It'll be interesting to see if they all agree when we're closer to November.

I really think voter apathy towards Biden, and his low approval rating, will win this for Trump and the GOP… as opposed to DJT actually doing anything to win it. You have to remember, Biden was voted in with the highest ever total number of votes in 2020, and the second highest ever vote total was Trump in 2020. Trump would have won any other election, it was only a large amount of pro biden sentiment that got out the democrat vote in swing states. Currently looking at most swing states, Trump is ahead.

Biden's too old, too criminal, and leading CFTrump in the latest Fox News poll: https://www.salon.com/2024/06/20/biden-takes-lead-over-in-fox-news-poll-for-the-first-time-since-october-2023/?in_brief=true

Independents swinging to Biden from those poll results, from -2 to +9 vs. CFTrump. Convictions matter to people.

I think Biden will need to make a choice soon, if Israel's attack on Gaza doesn't end. Choose to support Israel or win the election. He can't win if young people don't turn out for him, and that demographic is heavily pro-palestine. There's little enough currently to generate optimism for them, housing market is denied to them, health care is a bad joke, education is a debt trap, and they're facing the reality of the coming climate apocalypse. He needs to go all out in getting them engaged and to the polls, especially given that Republican efforts at voter suppression will in full force.

Can't simply rely on Trump being worse to motivate them.

I don't think that's enough. Saying the genocide will be worse under the other guy isn't exactly a stirring call to action. The genocide is still happening and will likely continue to happen unless Biden does something drastic to change US foreign policy. I recognise that there may be little ultimately that the US could do to force Netanyahu to end the war, but Biden could take a definitive stand against it. It's the morally correct action and one that might help him to win the election