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?????? v Trump (and one or two others) The US Presidential election 2024. Read OP before posting

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,622 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    I reckon the democrats thought Trump would be history at this stage. Biden was good enough to beat trump in 2020 and they got their strategy right there. But it’s like they have no plan for a resurgent Trump. This was not supposed to happen. The republicans were supposed to have reformed and have a different ‘ business as usual ‘ candidate to beat Biden. This is woeful bad strategy by the democrats. They have a few weeks to sort this out. They should have been sorting it out over the last 4 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,510 ✭✭✭✭DrPhilG


    100% this. But it'll be lost in all the hysteria about Trump burning down the world which we heard last time too.

    Trump is an arse, a sleezeball and a crook. That sums up 90% of politicians. But Trump is also a showman and a sensationalist.

    None of that means that he's the next Hitler and trying to make that the headline is half the reason that even before the debate Trump had the edge in many polls. It just doesn't hold up to scrutiny for the average American.

    The other reason is that Biden is clearly in cognitive decline and has been for quite some time. But I seem to remember everyone who pointed that out years ago being vilified in here...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,424 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Who would replace him though? Kamala Harris wouldnt get anywhere near the votes Biden would, especially in the swing states and the outliers in the South. Is there any Democrat that has any sort of Charisma that can be prepared to go head to head with Trump?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,622 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    It’s not Trump himself ( he is too lazy anyway ) that is the big fear it’s what comes after him what he enables and what precedents he sets. Trump is basically demonstrating that being an asshole is good and will get you results. We all know that but i wouldn’t like to be rearing kids in a world that nakedly espouses the benefits of Ass hole- ism and rewards and encourages it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭keeponhurling


    Hmmm…



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,715 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    It was a disaster for Biden.

    Trump has a cohort of voters who are going to vote for him no matter what, but there's no way the Biden camp can be confident that those voters who came out to support him so urgently last time will do again.

    Get Gavin Newsom in there. It'd be unprecedented and all that, and the Republicans and their media would make a big deal and cry foul, but all that would pass, and he'd utterly destroy Trump in debates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,609 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    ramp up military investment in europe and ireland should really be contributing more



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,575 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    Yes they totally were vilified here in the last year including mod warnings - and when we raised it, it was taken that we were just imitating Trumps “sleepy joe Biden” mocks which couldn’t be further from the truth- we recognised that all was not well with Biden and called it as we saw it- they were totally genuine comments from concerned observers and posters- what was scary for me at the time was seeing how such conversations were shut down - I know this site isn’t about total freedom of expression but the curtailment of opinion on that topic really took me aback



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Gretchen Whitmer. Who would have the very considerable advantage of locking down Michigan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,510 ✭✭✭✭DrPhilG


    Rather than endless "replace Biden" discussion, does anyone know the actual legislative process?

    Since Joe is in place, my understanding is that if he steps down or is forced out, Harris is automatically President. And from what I can see she's a blithering idiot without the benefit of being able to blame her age.

    So would Joe need to step down, AND Kamela? If the Democrats push Joe out but then refuse to give the (female, person of colour) VP the spot in his place they'd bring outrage from the progressive side.

    So can anyone in the know confirm whether there is actually any substance to that plan?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Pretty reckless of the Republican party leadership, Joe's inner circle and advisors to allow him to participate in a debate, knowing his issues. Are they all in some sort of collective denial? Afraid to say that the king has no clothes?

    They'd want to wake up very quick or Trump will be a shoe in.

    Surely any younger, sensible, sane alternative from the Democrats with reasonably clean hands will likely prevail over Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,357 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    IS it my imagination, or has Bidens cognitive decline come on very fast?

    He seemed to be ok up to maybe 18 months ago, now he is a disaster.

    He often looks like a man who doesn't know where he is or what he's meant to be doing. I know he is 82 or whatever, but the rate of decline is very worrying.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 895 ✭✭✭scottser


    So the debate was aimed at convincing 'double haters' to soften their stance toward one side or the other and make casting a vote a bit more palateable. From what I've seen, they'll be even more convinced that a vote for neither is the sensible and ethical option. Trump is a malignant narcissist and inveterate liar while Biden looked worse than we've ever seen him in ages. It's shaping up to be a record low turn-out for this election, which is great news for mushroom-dick.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I think there is a lot in this theory - Dems called for this unnecessary debate now to see if Biden if was capable of it.

    If he showed he wasn't, there is still time to replace him, or if he performed well they could carry on with Plan A.

    If they waited until the scheduled presidential debates, it would have been too late to replace him.

    After last night, the writing is on the wall - there is zero chance Biden is the Democratic candidate come November.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It is has been apparent throughout the course of his presidency, but any acknowledgement of Biden's ongoing cognitive decline has had a whiff of the Emperor's new clothes about it.

    Up until now it has been considered bad form to point out the obvious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,357 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Biden looks like a guy who should be sitting at home with his feet up and a cuppa, not in the most powerful job in the world.

    If he runs, he'll lose (imho).

    Trump is also prone to losing his train of thought too these days. How did the choice come down to these two??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭crusd


    Got to think at this stage that this it what the DNC secretly hoped for. The debate is 3 months earlier than any previous debates and you got to now think they wanted this to give time for a replacement.

    How does Biden withdraw though and remain president until January? If they say he is not up to it there will be a carcophony of calls for him to stand down. And if he was to stand down as president Kamala Harris would be hard to shift as the default alternate candidate and to me she is virtually un-electable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 934 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Yep, imagine trying to shift a black woman from the default spot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,557 ✭✭✭✭Mr E


    Where was the Biden from the SOTU? He didn't look good last night.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,103 ✭✭✭✭martingriff




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  • Registered Users Posts: 412 ✭✭CONSI


    Could Joe step down, Kamala in as babysitting president but say she doesnt want to run. She still gets the kudos of being the first woman president, even if for a few months…not like she will get any policy in this close to the election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,944 ✭✭✭SteM


    No teleprompter in front of him last night was a difference maker I'd guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,293 ✭✭✭Cordell


    It's not fast and certainly it's not something new, but until now the incidents were contained, he was managed out of those situations and they were covering it up as maga crowd lies and deep fakes. He's clearly unfit to be the president, he should be removed from office now, forget about running for another term.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 29,881 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    I've no sympathy for the Democratic party ending up in this position - it's been an obvious problem for a very long time now, and it just took this one debate for it to inevitably escalate into crisis. They got themselves into this disaster, and may have handed Trump the presidency regardless of what happens next.

    But the only sensible course of action now is for a change of candidate to happen quickly. Biden should step aside of his own volition - own the problem himself. Another candidate has enough time to gather momentum. It's Trump's to lose still, but at least a new candidate will shake up the race and change the conversation. Trump's still wildly unpopular outside his base - a fresh candidate at least has a chance, however remote.

    I don't think there's nearly enough time to get a candidate who is actually what the Democrats need - someone with an actual progressive vision rather than another establishment liberal to maintain the destructive status quo. But it'd be madness to persist with the Biden strategy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,894 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    Hubris

    Bernie would have beaten trump in 2016 and this future would never have happened



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,501 ✭✭✭JVince


    Very simple process.

    At present Biden has won all virtually democratic primaries & caucuses (3894 delegate votes v 39 against)

    The delegates are obliged to vote at the nomination convention in the way the primaries & caucuses have dictated.

    If Biden is no longer a nominee, this frees up all 3894 delegate votes and they can vote for whatever candidate their state or caucus chooses from those nominated.

    Effectively a free vote and it may take 4 or 5 rounds of voting is several candidates put their name forward - many will have no hope, but will want to get their name out there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,449 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Bernie would have mobilised the younger more left leaning portion of of the Democrat base, but turned off the older centre-right crowd, so it depends on what the difference in those groups' number was if it were to be mean a boost in numbers over Hillary.

    Anyway, at least Bernie stands for things, as opposed to Hillary who had no message other than generic focus grouped soundbites.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭gym_imposter


    You really don't understand America if you think someone like Bernie Sanders would have been allowed become president



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,575 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    It’s a mess TBH- Is the talk about Michelle Obama just “talk” or could there be something happening behind the scenes? Lots of “gossip” about Michelle not supporting Bidens campaign right now after some falling out or other but I wonder is there something afoot.
    I imagine Biden would stay in power until end of his term even if he decided not to go a second term?



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ Alberto Beautiful Link


    WTF are a 81 year old and a 78 year old doing running for president anyway? People older than the US retirement age on the first day of a prospective first term in office shouldn’t be allowed run. Harsh I know, but it stops what we are seeing now with Joe Biden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,894 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    those are the people who always vote anyway.

    No way they would have voted for Trump instead or spoiled their vote or not voted



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,510 ✭✭✭✭DrPhilG


    "If Joe Biden is no longer the nominee" is the issue though.

    My understanding is that he would need to stand down, there is no realistic process to remove him, and I don't see Joe standing down of his own will.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,840 ✭✭✭yagan


    It's a gerontocracy. Bush jr, Clinton and Obama all did two terms and they are all younger than Trump and Biden.

    I fear for what our gerontocracy phase may look like.



  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    Democratic candidate odds before the debate and after…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,009 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It looks like a step too far for Biden, watching to see how the DNC react now.

    If it is Newsom, expect some manufactured "surprise" at some point from the trump campaign.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    If that turns out to be the case, it'll drive Trump mad. Not only having to campaign/ debate against a woman, but a black woman and an Obama to boot! All his touchpoints.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 29,881 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    While precedent and decourm does always kick in in the end (in the modern era at least), it's always worth remembering the rules for the nominating convention and 'delegates' process for formally selecting a US presidential candidate are obscure gibberish and - theoretically - vulnerable to being completely tossed aside.

    The electoral college is one thing - bizarre nonsense in many ways. But the actual party selection conventions are surreal affairs in their own right, and the rules are fragile and vague enough that it could certainly collapse into anarchy if circumstances and momentum dictated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,409 ✭✭✭Augme


    Why would he need to step down as President? All he would need to do is saying he isnt willing to committ another four years of his life to being the President so he is withdrawing from the Presidential nimination and then he just sees out his current term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,282 ✭✭✭techdiver


    It's like we are witnessing the fall of an empire. The very fact that the two of these are the "best" America can put forward is a disgrace. In saying that my criticism of both are completely different. Biden is clearly not up to it but is a different kettle of fish from that incompetent piece of human excrement he's running against.

    It's actually depressing. Whilst we are told it'll have little impact on the rest of us, I am terrified what another Trump term will do to geopolitics around the world. What becomes of Ukraine? If Ukraine falls what next? Especially since Trump is vocally anti nato and had made some outlandish comments.

    It's a depressing time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,510 ✭✭✭✭DrPhilG


    I can't see him doing that either. He should, but I don't think he will.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,575 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    I think the whole world has been watching this slow motion car crash now for some time - I don’t think any one person or group of people had the power to stop it happening though - it takes a lot of money and time to build up a presidential candidate - it’s no easy task



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,386 ✭✭✭combat14


    ladbrokes

    trump 4/7 to win

    biden 4/1



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,282 ✭✭✭techdiver


    Agree, but I just cannot understand that the democrats had 4 years to put forward a new candidate. Ageism aside it's just not sound to putt all your eggs in an 81 year old man. He was the right man to beat Trump in 2020, but they should have started to build a new candidate on Thursday 5th of November 2020. Even if they didn't need to use him/her, they had a break glass in case of emergency. It's clear to all that Biden has been fading badly over the last few years and is moving and acting every bit his age.

    The issue is now, they have lost control of the narrative to a scumbag criminal. If Biden wins it's highly unlikely he can serve another 4 years which means the narrative will be that a vote for Biden is a vote for Harris as president. So why not just pull the cord and pick a new candidate. It wouldn't take much to beat Trump so a new candidate could actually win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 934 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    I just read that Bill Clinton won in 1992 and he's younger than Biden and Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,575 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    Yeah with you on that - I guess the one person who could persuade Biden not to run again and just see out this term, is his wife. She’ll be critical but by some accounts at least, she seems to relish the First Lady status so she’ll have to get over losing that first, before she can bring her mind around to persuading Joe not to run again.

    As for agism, again I agree - this has nothing to do with age but as we’ve seen with pretty much all past US presidents, the office ages you quite considerably - it is certainly a “young persons” game - you need to be mentally tough but also physically tough to endure the rigours of this office and for the American people to have a strong leader whether it’s Republican or Democrat - I know a 90 year old who I’d place well ahead of Biden in terms of both mental and physical agility- but I wouldn’t recommend him for office either. I don’t like Trump but he certainly presents fitter but his ramblings do give cause for concern -but again, I think there a better stronger and more capable leaders out there who have the right energy - and yes younger too. Leaders throughout the western world are a lot younger these days - a country leader role today demands a lot more of the person than it did 30 years ago



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,316 ✭✭✭bloopy


    Would they be able to get a candidate who is willing to step into this mess?

    It might be a bit of a poisoned chalice now.

    Potential candidates might be looking at 2028 as a better prospect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,575 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    Michelle Obamas name in some news reports on TV when presenters are talking with the reporters - I’d be very surprised though if that came to be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,655 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I think it would be an incredible opportunity. Economy doing great (for wall st). A absolute loon for an opponent, tied up in court cases. They could ride high on Biden's successes without being tied to his failures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,575 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    Dirt! Thats the biggest fear I’d say of picking a new candidate at short notice - you don’t know what the tabloids will uncover



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The tabloids don't uncover much.

    The team of professionals that the other side hire ,do.



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