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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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A big climb down in the rainfall totals for the next 10 days from both ECM and GFS and not as cool as recent charts were showing, quite a lot of moderating temperatures around being drawn in by the LP to the high teens / low 20's so not as bad as was showing only a couple of runs ago.
The LP set to move in and stay around as the week goes on looks a lot flabbier and just producing weaker fronts now. So a deal of uncertainty yet but possibly leaning towards less rainfall and warmer then what was showing in the last few runs. Will see if the moderating trend continues.
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the charts for the coming week have certainly improved from what we were looking at over the past few days. However the GFS still going for a relatively cool and unsettled first week of July but that is along way off so therefore is unreliable. Let's hope it doesn't verify but a cool and unsettled period probably will happen at some stage during July, just hopefully nowhere near as prolonged as the recent cold spell.
and the embedding of images into posts seems to be fixed now thankfully. Alot of scatter in the models from June 27th so everything past day 5 can be taken with a large pinch of salt.
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Todays GFS 12z is fairly grim if your looking for warm and settled weather. Real shades of June 2024 or July 2023 with todays model output, cool with temperatures cooler than average almost from start to finish and an increase in precipitation. The GFS has the north-west to south-east alignment of the jetstream persisting for the first half of July. Of course much of this is in the unreliable timeframe but if this verifies this could be the coolest overall summer in quiet a while as June is likely to finish up cooler than average. I don't think 2 warm days is enough to unravel the chilly first 2 and a half weeks of this month.
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I wouldn't hedge my bets on it but bank it nonetheless. GFS 12z was very dry with high pressure ridging and ridging continuously into Ireland through to the end of its run starting later next week. If this were to occur, temperatures would also finally start to warm up on a nationwide scale though especially in the west closer to the high pressure as there would be a bit of a northeasterly wind influence to the north and east. Good to note that any NE'ly wind would not be as impactful compared to a few weeks prior. Mid-July is often a prime time for Irish heatwaves. This would be a technical one with consistent mid 20s day after day. Main thing would be how dry it would be. Hardly a millimetre for a good week and a half at the very least.
It was on the upper range of the ensemble suite but not an outlier. You can see how persistent the high pressure is on the run with the air pressure never falling below 1020 hPa in Dublin after the 11th July and even getting up to 1030 hPa on the 17th which is very high for July.
Other models as you'd expect not nearly as enthusiastic in showing this.
ECM shows a cut off low hindering any high pressure ridging into us rather than undercutting with some promise at the very end of its run at day 10 Monday 15th July. Hints of pressure rising but this is clearly a much more unsettled and changeable run before it gets to any high pressure signal.
UKMO shows high pressure starting to ridge from the northwest towards the latter part of next week but with relatively cool air entrenched - at first that is. The way it positions the cut off low near Biscay would make me think after a few days, warm air would start flowing up from the south and the anticyclone would intensify.
GEM shows a weak attempt of ridging later next week before the Atlantic influence makes a full quick and swift return.
It's some hope at least for summer lovers which we haven't had in weeks. Besides a little warmer period through mid-June which was transient, we've not had a definitive warm and dry period nationwide since June last year or arguably August 2022 in some cases. May was thundery at times with some locally very wet weather in parts of the south/west. Let's have some hope to cling onto.
Post edited by sryanbruen onPhotography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Yes the Jet is just being too stubborn staying South of us not letting ridging build for long. Only transient rub of HP, runs have been nudging a bit on the cooler side too but should see temperatures in the mid to high teens in general, will probably see over 20C in a few places ,drier for the Western half of the country perhaps, a mixed bag , in general not too much rain showing up over the next 10 days, currently looking like slack airflows apart from the normal few breezy spells on the coasts.
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GFS predicts a large moderate storm next Wednesday (T156).
Wind:
Rain:
Ye Hypocrites, are these your pranks
To murder men and gie God thanks?
Desist for shame, proceed no further
God won't accept your thanks for murder.―Robert Burns
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