2024 Hurricane season
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16-06-2024 8:37pm#1
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is being forecasted on the high side from several reputable sources, the Gulf of Mexico is much warmer than usual as is the main development area of the North Atlantic which will add moisture and energy to storms. The Pacific is also transitioning to a La Nina which is usually more conducive to conditions more favourable for development.
Forecasting Hurricanes from NOAA, for some explanations of what's involved.
A potential tropical storm that is forecast to cause severe flooding regardless of if it fully develops or not with a 70% formation chance:
Seven day forecast graphic NOAA
"For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent."
There's also a second disturbance with a current 30% formation chance.
5 - A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
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The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the forecast period.
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