Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I think I've answered my own question there, the plan was probably to live there, but maybe had to move abroad and decided to rent it out, and got shafted.

104k will just as likely be a working couple in there thirties, with children that are renting maybe even with HAP at present. Or young couple starting out. 100k is not astronomical wages for a couple. Not many professionals earning 100k will be buying these. Unlikely any single person in the 100k+ bracket will be buying these.

Some here are forgetting that these earning limits are targeted at couples in fairly ordinary jobs who cannot afford a house otherwise.

In Limerick at present the larger MNC are paying a basic of 50k+ to shift workers there total earning are in the region of 80k+. Daughter is a teacher teaching about 6-7 years next September her earning will be 55k ish.

People give out about the price of housing. A friend of my better half was home from Manchester. She is separated about 8-10 with one child. They sold there orginal house when they separated and it made 500k, it recently sold again for a nearly a million sterling. The house she bought a small 3 bed semi in a decent area cost nearly 300k, sub 900 sqft with the obligatory box room no Dermot Bannon extension it is worth in the region of 500k now.

Manchester is the UK's third city probably double the size of Dublin but not a capital city. Ireland has the fastest growing population of the wealthiest EU countries, the UK population was rising before Brexit and probably still is. They have much the same issues as Ireland.

As DavidMcWilliams said about housing 5 years ago in a podcast

"never let the perfect get in the way of the good"

The economic growth depends on Ireland being competitive and if €100k is a low household income for Ireland then it is only a matter of time before something somewhere breaks. Effectively the government has mandated that €100k is a low household income. Businesses will be undoubtedly wary of where the country is headed as the housing market is getting less affordable which means that they will need to keep increasing salaries. It’s so shortsighted by the government to implement policies that mainly seek to push up house prices with housing supply and affordability as well as economic growth being seen as collateral to successfully prop up the housing market.

Absolutely; and I think it is actually worse for families that work and rent as 3 beds to rent, from a high level scan of Daft, cost at least €2500 per month and that seems to be Tallaght/Finglas etc so probably €3k pm and more to get something in a bit of a nicer area for the family.

This would take up around 40% of a €150k annual salary. While we think owning a house is for the wealthy it is actually renting which requires you to be earning good money!

And posters were cribbing about the prices in Coolough

An independent look at the effects of UK's Help to buy scheme over a decade similar to Ireland's Shared ownership which is now impacting the market

help-to-buy scheme “inflates prices by more than the subsidy value” and does “not provide good value for money, which would be better spent on increasing housing supply....

Worse still, they found that the policy actively stimulated construction “in the wrong areas”.......

the government’s own evaluation of the policy showed that only two in five help to buyers actually needed the programme.......

Helping out the comfortably-off and lining the pockets of developers may have been a calculated part of the Tory policy. But help to buy has also had a major unintended consequence: leaving many buyers trapped in negative equity.....

Hamptons last year found that people who bought a new-build home were twice as likely to sell it on at a loss than second-hand homeowners. This is a consequence of help to buy having created massively inflated premiums on new-build homes – which quickly evaporated once the home had been lived in.....

Fairburn, the then boss of Persimmon, was notoriously awarded a bonus of £82m, one of the largest such bounties in British corporate history, and was forced out as a result. Defending his payout, Fairburn was frank about the cause of the vast sum: “It’s supply and demand, and the demand has been created through the help-to-buy scheme.”

They value the property for the vendor, the asking price is not a valuation, it is a guide price only for bidding purposes.

I’m afraid I can’t explain it as it seems all the bids occurred during a very short period on the one I looked at. I really don’t see a benefit, and your theory relating to advertising a low guide price, then correcting it hardly makes sense as there is no benefit for either the vendor or EA, what difference does it make to them. Perhaps it indicates that the EA wants to alter asking price to reflect what the bids have reached, how that would help their client, the vendor is unclear.

Friend bought a 3bhk for 415 k two months back..another similar listed for 390k and sold for 455k…south Dublin !

I posted links previously that describe the economic reasoning and theory behind why EAs under quote on the property that is trying to elicit a herd mentality when purchasing a property.

But here you are still doing the good ol "Whatabout" tactic, in ignorance of everything that has been discussed before.

no no…we had many months of price drops, and then the central bank changed the borrowing limits…

A lot has changed economically also. If you scroll back to 2022 even on this page you’ll see talk of mass closures of business, households unable to heat their homes over the winter, interest rates hitting double digits, tech sector crash destroying the Irish corporation tax base, SF government instability.

Summer 2024 - inflation largely under control, energy prices falling, interest rates have peaked, record employment levels, wages increasing quickly (now surpassing price growth since COVID), tech stock indexes breaking new record highs, corporation tax take surging to new highs, FF/FG likely remaining another 5 years.

The economic picture is a lot lot better than most expected in 2022.

I’m afraid I can’t explain it as it seems all the bids occurred during a very short period on the one I looked at.

Yes, it's the same for them all, that's the way the market is currently, frantic bidding.

There was 6 months of index dropping from end of 2022 until around June 2023. Impact of rate rises scares buyers. Very hard to bid when not sure if mortgage rate might be couple percent higher by close. Market took off again once it became clear by autumn 23 that rates had peaked. I agree central bank rule change added to price growth. The move from 80% to 90% ltv on second time buyers significant too. They were quite hamstrung at 80% though

I think this view is backed up by the fact that similar trends were seen across the worlds. Drops in 2021/2022 on rising rates. Quickly re-accelerating and re-peaking now. The moves were more pronounced than ours in countries with looser lending limits (and therefore more sensitive to interest rates)

This is an unusual take. The vast majority of people buy as a couple. The vast majority of women work these days work. You’re appear to be painting this as a bad thing?

In how many first world cities could two below median income workers buy a brand new 3bed house 6kms from the city centre?