Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Friend bought a 3bhk for 415 k two months back..another similar listed for 390k and sold for 455k…south Dublin !

I posted links previously that describe the economic reasoning and theory behind why EAs under quote on the property that is trying to elicit a herd mentality when purchasing a property.

But here you are still doing the good ol "Whatabout" tactic, in ignorance of everything that has been discussed before.

no no…we had many months of price drops, and then the central bank changed the borrowing limits…

A lot has changed economically also. If you scroll back to 2022 even on this page you’ll see talk of mass closures of business, households unable to heat their homes over the winter, interest rates hitting double digits, tech sector crash destroying the Irish corporation tax base, SF government instability.

Summer 2024 - inflation largely under control, energy prices falling, interest rates have peaked, record employment levels, wages increasing quickly (now surpassing price growth since COVID), tech stock indexes breaking new record highs, corporation tax take surging to new highs, FF/FG likely remaining another 5 years.

The economic picture is a lot lot better than most expected in 2022.

I’m afraid I can’t explain it as it seems all the bids occurred during a very short period on the one I looked at.

Yes, it's the same for them all, that's the way the market is currently, frantic bidding.

There was 6 months of index dropping from end of 2022 until around June 2023. Impact of rate rises scares buyers. Very hard to bid when not sure if mortgage rate might be couple percent higher by close. Market took off again once it became clear by autumn 23 that rates had peaked. I agree central bank rule change added to price growth. The move from 80% to 90% ltv on second time buyers significant too. They were quite hamstrung at 80% though

I think this view is backed up by the fact that similar trends were seen across the worlds. Drops in 2021/2022 on rising rates. Quickly re-accelerating and re-peaking now. The moves were more pronounced than ours in countries with looser lending limits (and therefore more sensitive to interest rates)

This is an unusual take. The vast majority of people buy as a couple. The vast majority of women work these days work. You’re appear to be painting this as a bad thing?

In how many first world cities could two below median income workers buy a brand new 3bed house 6kms from the city centre?

I don’t think many people would argue it’s harder than ever to buy a house and significantly so vs decades ago. Maybe a few would but not anyone who’s actually thought about it.

But purely in the context of this affordable housing scheme which is getting tonnes of negative attention in the media and from opposition parties - In 2024, it is remarkable that two teachers can buy a new house so close to the centre of a thriving capital city.

I think the government should get credit for this but instead emotion has again taken over the narrative with articles referring to surveys of ‘people’ saying they should be under €300k. All logic out the window…just ‘because’.

An expectation of any Irish government magically making new 3 bed houses in the capital city be 5x average income, completely ignoring that this isn’t the case anywhere in the world, takes the same level of head in the sand ignorance as the boomer talking about avocado toast.

Ah here. It's hardly "remarkable" in any way, shape, or form. As someone else posted above - 100k is the top 7% of earners…………. would you really class Coolock as being in the top 7% of locations to live in terms of desirability?

I think there is more than a hint of delusion in that post.

You do know that there would still be plenty of people alive who would have protested at being moved out to "the sticks" to the likes of Coolock or Ballyfermot into social housing in the form of newly built estates on recently sprawling farmland?

Even ignoring the fact that the State adjudges those two teachers as being unable to afford in that area without help, how far out from the centre of the city do you think would be a reasonable distance that could should go to be able to buy reasonable housing based on their own capacity without subsidisation? 8-10 miles? Should it be farther than one would expect in say London or NY?

When we decide on the appropriate distance for that couple, we can then start to consider the couples who aren't both college educated and then the single people

1 beds starting €260k, 2beds €350k, 3beds 400k. All before the other schemes you mention to further reduce the price.

This is an incredible scheme that will allow relatively low income households escape the rent trap and buy within a 20 min cycle of the city centre. It will be oversubscribed multiple times over because it’s great value. We desperately need more of these. But of course in Ireland emotional nonsense takes over, people pick the most expensive unit in the place and universally criticise it.

The irony of that post implying ignorance of others. But how and ever.

If a kid is trying to learn how to take a free, and he puts it wide on the same side of the goal by about the same amount, then the kid will eventually learn to readjust his aim towards the other side until he is getting them over the black spot.

What we seem to have with poor innocent EAs is that their kicks are all landing 20 foot outside the right post. Over and over again. Wide at around the same point. If only there was a way they could figure out how to adjust their aim to get their kicks closer to the goals………. something complicated like aim a bit to the left????

An AMV is supposed to be an estate agent's fair assessment of what the property is worth. Perhaps there should be a published and binding reserve price as well as the AMV. So if the EA thinks a place is worth 400k but knows that the seller will only accept 500k then list both.

By listing with a reserve of 500k and the AMV of 400k, the EA is basically saying "we think this property is actually worth 400k but the buyer won't sell it for less than 500k". Which puts a whole new spin on things. I think that if that was done, you'd find that the AMVs jumped pretty quickly.

This is just bizarre denial of facts. The vast majority of Dublin eircodes are more expensive than the rest of the country. Picking a few exceptions - Greystones, Bray, Enniskerry, parts of Galway which cumulatively represent a tiny fraction of the country is very odd counter to a top 20% claim. What if we start naming every area cheaper than Darndale? It would be a long post…

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2021/housepricesbyeircode/

If you normalise for average house size being smaller the gap becomes even more stark. Prices in North County Dublin are 25% higher than Wicklow, the most expensive area outside Dublin. There obviously small desirable exceptions. But on average Dublin prices almost anywhere > vast majority of country.

https://blocks.roadtolarissa.com/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

You are equating prices with desirability. There will be a correlation but they are not the same thing. Someone living in an average area of Galway isn't necessarily clutching their lotto ticket on a Saturday night, dreaming of being able to up sticks to move to Blanchardstown just because the house prices might be higher there.

I genuinely think one would have to be deluded to think that 93%, or even 80%, of the people in the country would prefer to leave where they are to move to Coolock if they could.

You were the one who linked desirability and price by saying top 7% price should equal top 7% ‘desirability’! You’re now suggesting these two things are not directly linked…so should these houses in Coolock be priced based on some other subjective desirability metric and ignore the economic reality of Dublin prices > elsewhere?

Most people are happy where they are but price per sqm is by far the best, objective measure of how desireable somewhere is. It’s literally the measure of the premium people are willing to pay to live there relative to another area.