Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I don’t think many people would argue it’s harder than ever to buy a house and significantly so vs decades ago. Maybe a few would but not anyone who’s actually thought about it.

But purely in the context of this affordable housing scheme which is getting tonnes of negative attention in the media and from opposition parties - In 2024, it is remarkable that two teachers can buy a new house so close to the centre of a thriving capital city.

I think the government should get credit for this but instead emotion has again taken over the narrative with articles referring to surveys of ‘people’ saying they should be under €300k. All logic out the window…just ‘because’.

An expectation of any Irish government magically making new 3 bed houses in the capital city be 5x average income, completely ignoring that this isn’t the case anywhere in the world, takes the same level of head in the sand ignorance as the boomer talking about avocado toast.

Ah here. It's hardly "remarkable" in any way, shape, or form. As someone else posted above - 100k is the top 7% of earners…………. would you really class Coolock as being in the top 7% of locations to live in terms of desirability?

I think there is more than a hint of delusion in that post.

You do know that there would still be plenty of people alive who would have protested at being moved out to "the sticks" to the likes of Coolock or Ballyfermot into social housing in the form of newly built estates on recently sprawling farmland?

Even ignoring the fact that the State adjudges those two teachers as being unable to afford in that area without help, how far out from the centre of the city do you think would be a reasonable distance that could should go to be able to buy reasonable housing based on their own capacity without subsidisation? 8-10 miles? Should it be farther than one would expect in say London or NY?

When we decide on the appropriate distance for that couple, we can then start to consider the couples who aren't both college educated and then the single people

1 beds starting €260k, 2beds €350k, 3beds 400k. All before the other schemes you mention to further reduce the price.

This is an incredible scheme that will allow relatively low income households escape the rent trap and buy within a 20 min cycle of the city centre. It will be oversubscribed multiple times over because it’s great value. We desperately need more of these. But of course in Ireland emotional nonsense takes over, people pick the most expensive unit in the place and universally criticise it.

The irony of that post implying ignorance of others. But how and ever.

If a kid is trying to learn how to take a free, and he puts it wide on the same side of the goal by about the same amount, then the kid will eventually learn to readjust his aim towards the other side until he is getting them over the black spot.

What we seem to have with poor innocent EAs is that their kicks are all landing 20 foot outside the right post. Over and over again. Wide at around the same point. If only there was a way they could figure out how to adjust their aim to get their kicks closer to the goals………. something complicated like aim a bit to the left????

An AMV is supposed to be an estate agent's fair assessment of what the property is worth. Perhaps there should be a published and binding reserve price as well as the AMV. So if the EA thinks a place is worth 400k but knows that the seller will only accept 500k then list both.

By listing with a reserve of 500k and the AMV of 400k, the EA is basically saying "we think this property is actually worth 400k but the buyer won't sell it for less than 500k". Which puts a whole new spin on things. I think that if that was done, you'd find that the AMVs jumped pretty quickly.

This is just bizarre denial of facts. The vast majority of Dublin eircodes are more expensive than the rest of the country. Picking a few exceptions - Greystones, Bray, Enniskerry, parts of Galway which cumulatively represent a tiny fraction of the country is very odd counter to a top 20% claim. What if we start naming every area cheaper than Darndale? It would be a long post…

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2021/housepricesbyeircode/

If you normalise for average house size being smaller the gap becomes even more stark. Prices in North County Dublin are 25% higher than Wicklow, the most expensive area outside Dublin. There obviously small desirable exceptions. But on average Dublin prices almost anywhere > vast majority of country.

https://blocks.roadtolarissa.com/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

You are equating prices with desirability. There will be a correlation but they are not the same thing. Someone living in an average area of Galway isn't necessarily clutching their lotto ticket on a Saturday night, dreaming of being able to up sticks to move to Blanchardstown just because the house prices might be higher there.

I genuinely think one would have to be deluded to think that 93%, or even 80%, of the people in the country would prefer to leave where they are to move to Coolock if they could.

You were the one who linked desirability and price by saying top 7% price should equal top 7% ‘desirability’! You’re now suggesting these two things are not directly linked…so should these houses in Coolock be priced based on some other subjective desirability metric and ignore the economic reality of Dublin prices > elsewhere?

Most people are happy where they are but price per sqm is by far the best, objective measure of how desireable somewhere is. It’s literally the measure of the premium people are willing to pay to live there relative to another area.

I really don’t get this view. The most common argument you see on house prices is that a guard and a nurse can’t afford to buy a house and raise a family in most parts of Dublin.

There are 2 possible responses to this issue

• Do nothing. Hope Dublin defies the reality that exists in almost every single major city in the world and just somehow has affordable houses in the city (I.e. live in fantasy land)
• Build state subsidised accommodation in the city, sell it slightly below market price and offer other subsidies to cater to those too rich for social, but not rich enough to buy in Dublin.

The idea that housing should be two tier - private or social is always going to miss out a cohort of hardworking people who need to live in Dublin by virtue of their jobs but can’t afford to because they get squeezed out by higher earners yet will never qualify for a free house.

I’m generally an advocate for government staying out of things, but if there was one place I’d be happy to see more money spent it would be this cohort. Hopefully this scheme is replicated across Dublin.

Just for clarity, I agree state could easily sell these houses for much much cheaper than they are. But for the reasons outlined above I don’t think it would be a good idea to have them priced too far from their market value. 20% lower than market seems reasonable to me.

Not in particular, I just know that property prices in Dublin are among the cheapest in any sort of reasonable peer group analysis. So a 20% discount on those prices is naturally going to compare very favourably.

The thing about teachers and several other professions within the PS is getting up the payscales. In thenext 5 years her pay will jump 10k in today's terms not allowing for pay increases

People make choices, the government give individuals options. The reality is housing in Dublin will be expensive not just because of demand but because of the shortage of professional, skilled and unskilled building labour in Dublin. Add to this demand and the present building regulations and we are where we are.

So a single person with an income of 50k who qualified for maximum HTB and has 30k in savings could buy a one bed. A young couple on a joint income of 80k with with HTB and 5k in savings could buy a two bed or a person in there mid 30's with an income of 65k, HTB and savings of 60k could buy a two bed.

A 260k mortgage over 35 years is slightly less than 1100/ month.

If you are buying by yourself it's unlikely you will have the options that couple both earning thise sort of incomes will have.

A top 7% earner ( actually anyone earning 60-70k+ should have savings, I would expect a person earning 100k to have savings of that amount within 5 years of earning thise numbers. This all effects there buying ability.

With 4X income, HTB, savings they should be able to buy a two bed apartment ( adequate for a single person) within a reasonable distance of the city center.

It Might be a fart in the wind as you put it. However its a capital city of a wealthy European country.