Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I really don’t get this view. The most common argument you see on house prices is that a guard and a nurse can’t afford to buy a house and raise a family in most parts of Dublin.

There are 2 possible responses to this issue

• Do nothing. Hope Dublin defies the reality that exists in almost every single major city in the world and just somehow has affordable houses in the city (I.e. live in fantasy land)
• Build state subsidised accommodation in the city, sell it slightly below market price and offer other subsidies to cater to those too rich for social, but not rich enough to buy in Dublin.

The idea that housing should be two tier - private or social is always going to miss out a cohort of hardworking people who need to live in Dublin by virtue of their jobs but can’t afford to because they get squeezed out by higher earners yet will never qualify for a free house.

I’m generally an advocate for government staying out of things, but if there was one place I’d be happy to see more money spent it would be this cohort. Hopefully this scheme is replicated across Dublin.

Just for clarity, I agree state could easily sell these houses for much much cheaper than they are. But for the reasons outlined above I don’t think it would be a good idea to have them priced too far from their market value. 20% lower than market seems reasonable to me.

Not in particular, I just know that property prices in Dublin are among the cheapest in any sort of reasonable peer group analysis. So a 20% discount on those prices is naturally going to compare very favourably.

The thing about teachers and several other professions within the PS is getting up the payscales. In thenext 5 years her pay will jump 10k in today's terms not allowing for pay increases

People make choices, the government give individuals options. The reality is housing in Dublin will be expensive not just because of demand but because of the shortage of professional, skilled and unskilled building labour in Dublin. Add to this demand and the present building regulations and we are where we are.

So a single person with an income of 50k who qualified for maximum HTB and has 30k in savings could buy a one bed. A young couple on a joint income of 80k with with HTB and 5k in savings could buy a two bed or a person in there mid 30's with an income of 65k, HTB and savings of 60k could buy a two bed.

A 260k mortgage over 35 years is slightly less than 1100/ month.

If you are buying by yourself it's unlikely you will have the options that couple both earning thise sort of incomes will have.

A top 7% earner ( actually anyone earning 60-70k+ should have savings, I would expect a person earning 100k to have savings of that amount within 5 years of earning thise numbers. This all effects there buying ability.

With 4X income, HTB, savings they should be able to buy a two bed apartment ( adequate for a single person) within a reasonable distance of the city center.

It Might be a fart in the wind as you put it. However its a capital city of a wealthy European country.

I think there is a state subsidy for apartment building at present. It was put in place last year after finance dried up for apartment building from pension funds.

Just to put the price of these houses in context. At present in Limerick it woukd have been( considered the 4 dearest city in Ireland for housing) new developments in Patrickwell ( it not Adare) and Coonagh are both at around 500k.

The ERSI think we will only need about 35k units per year to 2050 a substantial difference compared to the predictions of 50-80k by some analysts.

On someone buying and selling at a profit after the retention period yes it may happen but it will be limited numbers. Seldom do houses remake there first day value in the short term due to mortgages rate differences, HTB subsidies, professional costs related to purchasing etc.

As well these housing estate could be considered only a step above social housing. Many will have shared equity attached to them where the buyers have only a joint income of sub 100k

Remember

"Never let the perfect get in the way of the good"

As far as I can tell, and they haven't published the market values yet like Fingal Coco did, but the upper limit of 475,000 reflects the minimum discount to maket value which is 5%.

Dublin city council would have to offer to take a minimum of 15% as equity for the applicants with the lowest income that are eligible, so the 18-22% they referred to as their discount offering is for the minimum price set for each house type.

Your logic at the end is still fine just with the exception that DCC only have 5% equity of the home.

Its a pity that the ceiling for apartments in Limerick was not increased from 450k so the the council could avail of it for the 630k they are paying for social and affordable apartments in the new development on the Ennis Road.

The reason the ceiling for apartments is not increasing is there is absolutely 0 demand for apartments priced at 450k or anywhere near that price in Limerick from people that are paying the majority of the price from there own pocket. Proof if ever it was needed that these schemes have moved on from propping up the property market to taking it to ever more unsustainable levels

I think you are thinking about social housing, no affordable and even if you are your point is a pretty nasty punching down viewpoint.

As we have been discussing affordable housing now constitutes couples that are on a combined salary of €106k. At what salary level do your neighbours need to be on to be acceptable to you?

Summer 2024 - inflation largely under control, energy prices falling, interest rates have peaked, record employment levels, wages increasing quickly (now surpassing price growth since COVID), tech stock indexes breaking new record highs, corporation tax take surging to new highs, FF/FG likely remaining another 5 years

Only yesterday we were informed of another costly unnecessary government scheme will result in an increase in our refuse bill. The 80% previously compliant have to pay for the 20% that were not

Energy provision a severe constraint on future growth

Employment in the tech sector is at 2016 levels in the US

Tech indexes are being propped up by a reducing magnificent "5" with insider selling rife in these companies

Inflation easing and wages rising is not a sustainable condition

EU under significant threats if breakup externally and internally with a Donald Trump presidency most likely to add to that pressure later.

Yeah I think that’s a fair comment and wouldn’t economically disagree. The overall scheme is 40% cost rental, 40% social, 20% ‘affordable housing’. I guess the 20% affordable housing is designed to have a more diverse estate and give some sense of long term ‘equity’ for some people in the estate. Theres also the social element of people feeling more like they ‘belong’ when they own vs cost rental. 20% seems an ok balance of that vs long term state assets to me.

Either way, I’m happy to see that cohort of households in the €40-€100k bracket get a good break for a change.