General British politics discussion thread

Are the LibDems even putting any resources into that many seats?

If you told me Sunak had money on the Tories getting wiped out it would make this campaign make a lot more sense.

I see a couple of polls in the last few days have knocked the lead down from 20% to 15%. I know its only 2 polls but we are at the stage where people who dont follow politics like us nerds start looking for information. The Tories have given up trying to win and now those that are sent to the TV , and the Tory papers, are spinning the Socialist Super-majority / One-party-socialist-state narrative.

Its the point in the campaign when you decide on a core message and keep hammering it out . I can certainly believe, after listening to vox-pops and interviews with regular voters, that these bullet points are cutting through, because they are being regurgitated.

I find it amazing that people can base their opinions of a political party on what they are told by an opposing party, or the papers that support the opposing party.

Maybe its just laziness , so they can have an opinion they can then proceed to pontificate on, down the pub.

I

Here's the thing, the 1997 election was very much the same with people tired of the Tories and not really enthused by Labour or Blair. Don't be fooled into thinking people loved him like they did a few years later, they were much the same as they are on Starmer right now. A bit meh…but he is/was not Sunak/Major. The difference, Major was more liked than what Sunak is and people seem to be more angry right now at both Sunak and the Tories.

I still think they win somewhere around the 1997 total and it is still a disaster, but the polls just aren't moving. They are all around 20% lead for Labour still where the 1997 polls had Labour up as high as 30% when the election was called and it ended at 13% at the results. But the polls were moving then, this time it is not. Maybe we have a more silent Tory vote this time and it ends the same, or maybe Reform taking votes from the Tories this time will eat them up this election.

It will be interesting to see the next "last" MRP's that will be released in the next few days shows the same, but it does look like there will be hurt at the election. I think if people vote tactically in those 150 000 vote seats that the Tories keep saying may keep them in, then they will end up as the 3rd party. I will find that very funny, but still I expect them to win around 150 to 175 seats.

This will be an Interesting one and let's hope Anderson does not win, however, bookies think it is a toin coss between him and Labour candidate.

This is my ex constituency and one were family members still live. Word has it, that Labour will take it from Tories pretty comfortable.

The "sensible" was very much directed at the headline.

Watched this last night, always decent. Interesting to get a better insight on what's going on in France towards the end also.

Christ it's like someone put "sad looking poster + politics" into an AI generator.

But there is also the possibility of complacency.

I'm not suggesting that it's going to cost Labour the election but many of the demographic other than older people might just believe Labour have it in the bag anyway and not bother to vote.

Let someone else get out and vote, I'm too busy doing x, y or z.

Looking at odds for some of the constituencies of the faces you'd never want to see again in Politics.

JRM - Done for

Truss - She has a chance, but Labour favs for the seat

Cleverly - Coin toss

Sunak - More than likely safe (He'll resign from politics almost straight away anyway)

Shapps - Done for

Dowden - Decent chance , 60% maybe

Braverman - Probably same as Dowden

Priti - Safe as houses

Steve Barclay - Same as Priti

Gove - Lib Dems should take this and that'll be the end for Gove

Is Mogg definitely done for. I know his constituency has taken in new urban working class areas but it still seems too good to be true.

Going by the odds, it's a near on gaurentee that he's done

Aha! Your right on Gove, my apologies!