Emmanuel Macron dissolves French parliament and calls snap elections

Quite surprised by the lack of coverage of the far left groups setting fire and having pitch battles with police all night after the results came in.

It's not news - happens every second night of the week for one reason or another. I know several people who are semi-professional manifestants. In Ireland they'd be called benefit spongers because the only thing they do with their lives is protest. Viewed from a distance, outside observers seem to think that it's great the way the French don't take governance lying down. Doesn't have quite the same aura of "democracy in action" when you know them personally, and know that whatever they're protesting this weekend is in direct conflict with whatever had them on the streets last weekend.

Yeah, but that's always been the case on the odd occasion there'd be a three-way contest in the second round. We're seeing the same thing in France as is on view in the UK: the old First Two Past The Post system is no longer fit for purpose; but the French at least have the advantage of this second round to more directly influence the final outcome.

The FN→RN are not "transfer friendly" as we'd say in Ireland, so they still have quite a fight on their hands. That was Macron's gamble, and I believe he was right to call the election now, rather than giving them another couple of years to shore up support on the basis of unrealistic policy promises.

Now, if they get it, they'll have to walk the same walk that faced the Brexiters in the UK, and that'll split them the same way - pragmatic drift-back-to-the-centre types on the one hand and should-have-been-more-extreme nutters on the other.

I was given this:

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/

I thought we have a lot of parties!!!

They use the words left and right in the party names a lot.

The table below seems to be the seats that were filled by absolute majorities FPTP at the first round?

Sounds very much like Macron's government is in total chaos. Looking more and more likely his position as President is in doubt. No surprise they have given up the way they were thrown under the bus.

Because any normal person would resign given the mess he has caused already. Even he should understand this and it looks like it's the only way things can move forward, especially if no one gets a majority. Don't forget they have the Olympics coming up in a few weeks also.

He can't even push the blame on anyone else now either. He could always take full control over everything himself, that would go down well with everyone.

I don't think that's how it works though: the president is elected for a fixed term, and is not dependent on what the current majority is in the parliament. There have been several instances of what the French call "cohabitation", where the president and the government are not from the same party, and in those cases, the responsibilities of each are clearly defined, with the president in charge of external policy and the governùent internal policies. So as long as they work together, it's perfectly possible to govern the country more or less normally, and it has been done more than once in the past.

(Of course Macron doesn't seem to be big into negotiation, preferring to dictate his will from above, as the "Jupiter" nickname shows. But that's his own problem, not a constitutional crisis per se.)

If RN don't get an absolute majority will/should Macron choose a leftist as PM?

Will governing be very difficult or can they find points d'accord?

Why do you think Macron's party will outperform (or be competitive with) the left? Aren't the results half baked in now and the tactical withdrawals of candidates btw the 2 groupings should favour none over the other to any degree I would have thought.

I thought Macron was trailing the Left by quite a bit after the first round.

Looking forward to France's new "radical left, green, islamist, anti semitic, communist, pro immigration and god knows what else" alliance.

Contrary to bricksters repeated assertion, this isn't a two-horse race. There are three horses in the running, with "only" 13 percentage points between them. The RN have probably maxed out their vote - their share is in line with the trend that's been established over several elections now (presidential, European, parliamentary, local …)

The Left alliance is currently in second place, just 5 percentage points behind, but the alliance is so complete that there's little scope for picking up additional left-ish votes, especially seeing as the few head-banger hard/extreme left parties did really badly.

That leaves Macron's right-of-centre party, currently in third place, as the most likely beneficiary of the approximately 15 percentage points' worth of votes up for grabs, of which two thirds were cast for right-wing parties in the first round. What's not clear is how many of those will be given to the RN, but again the pattern in recent elections has been for "second preferences" to go anywhere other than to the hard right.

There are commentators who think that Macron is doing this with an eye to the long game — the presidential elections in 2027. By holding the elections now, he puts the Rassemblement National in the position of either having to go into government, with all the associated compromises, tough choices, responsiblity for intractable problems, etc, or refusing to participate in government, despite most likely being the largest party in the Assembly. Either course of action takes a bit of shine off them, and their reputation takes a bit of battering in the years between now and 2027 as they have to take responsibility for the consequences of their choices, something they've never had to do so far.

That's the theory, anyway, but it remains to be seen how will it will play out. But, if that is his strategy, so far it's working pretty much as he would wish.

(Macron, of course, can't be a candidate in the 2027 election. But presumably he will want to give whoever the centrist candidate is the best chance.)

"An anti-immigration and nationalist party that refuses to participate in government" is how Macron is trying to frame them.

First of all: Le Pen, one N

Second of all: huh??? none of that makes any sense. "Macron has underestimated Le Penn's desire to govern at any cost. She has been adamant that they will only govern with an outright majority. They will have far and away the largest party anyway so just a case of watching events unfold …"

Being the largest party, but refusing an opportunity to govern, preferring instead to sit on the sidelines shouting at the adults playing the game for real is not going to do much to bolster support over the coming years.

Voters want to see the party they've voted for deliver on their promises; if they're not going to do that when they have the chance, then support will plateau and start to decline as voters either see their personal situation improve under whatever administration is in power, or until another party comes along that says it won't be so pig-headed.

"Maybe they all get along just grand and things go smoothly who knows."

Who knows? Anyone who's paid any attention to French politics over the last fifty years. Getting along just grand with your political adversary is how things are done in France. Not always smoothly, but smooth enough to get the country through to the next election. To see that kind of compromise in action, you only have to look at how 210 candidates (Left & Right combined) have withdrawn from three-way contests to give the other one a decent chance of victory.

Incidentally, four RN candidates have withdrawn to give their not-Left opponent a better chance of winning. Still very much a three-horse race.

Maybe Macron has underestimated Le Penn's desire to govern at any cost. She has been adamant that they will only govern with an outright majority. They will have far and away the largest party anyway so just a case of watching events unfold as everyone else joins together and slowly start to eat themselves.

What you're pointing to is a huge weakness in Le Pen's position — a weakness that Macron is seeking to highlight and exploit. France is not like the UK when it comes to government formation — France is more like Ireland (and indeed most European countries). Single-party government is not the norm; I don't think France has had a single-party government in more than 30 years (and that was a minority government). If Le Pen is the leader of "far and away the largest party" in the Assembly then it's absolutely her duty to try to form a government by finding common ground with other parties and building consensus to sustain a coalition that can command a majority in the Assembly. If she refuses to so this then unqestionably, yeah, voters will blame her for any resulting instability; her position will be seen as nihilistic, destructive, antidemocratic.

(They may also criticise Macron for having called the election and put Le Pen in a position where she could behave like this, but that will be very much a secondary thing. Plus, Macron doesn't greatly care about that; he will not be a candidate in the 2027 Presidential election but Le Pen will be and it will be her behaviour, not Macron's, that will be the focus of the electorate's attention.)

No need for a Led By Donkeys stunt in France when you can count on the Kremlin!

Seemingly the RN top brass are … a bit annoyed. They've been trying really hard recently to hide their associations with Putin & Co. :D

The name is Le Pen. There is no sign of that in the rest of the post content so seems a fail at playing the victim card there.

Why needlessly post the wrong name? It is discrediting of opinions expressed in the post when you read that.