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Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭yagan


    Dependent on China for golf buggies and scamblers as they deplete their soviet stock?

    From a trade point of view Putin being gone would make Europe-China rail transport far easier, especially important with Trump potentially returning to sabre rattle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    China is now Russia's number one trade partner.

    An estimated 70% to 90% of components in the Russian military are Western made. China doesn't (openly) send military hardware to Russia, but it does supply them with these critical components (jet parts, navigation aids, semiconductors, etc all conveniently dual-use). All of which are critical to Russia's war effort. Russia's war on Europe. Where presumably most of us live.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,752 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    The weird thing is that from the outside Russia has never looked more stable, up until the attacks in Dagestan last week there's been almost no signs of insurrection or dissent since the Wagner run on Moscow, which itself was an outlier.

    Politically, Navalny is dead and there's no sign of a replacement figure, the Far East and Amur have gone totally silent while a few years ago there was quite a bit of political unrest.

    Chechnya is silent, which is a huge surprise, and other than the recent Dagestan attacks which were Islamist rather than sovereignty based the Caucasus seems quieter than any other point since the 80s.

    Externally Georgia is showing no interest in taking advantage of the Russian military weakness, which I was sure they would. If anything they are moving closer to Russia.

    Of course there could be movement behind the scenes, and the whole system a house of cards, (if Kadryov truly is terminally ill as reported something might happen) but outwardly it seems quite stable right now. Maybe it's the result of the two decades of repression or the exodus of dissenters at the start of the War.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭yagan


    Europe exports food and equipment to russia too which could be construed to aid their invasion.

    Your paranoia is Putinesque.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,681 ✭✭✭eire4


    That is how insane the decision they made truly is.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Yep. Were I in Biden's shoes I'd have responded to that judgement by ordering SEAL teams to assassinate Trump, his patsies on the SCOTUS and most of the MAGA wing of the Democrats. Luckily Joe Biden seems to have higher morals than me.

    And of course, I'd have also donated a squadron of F35s to Ukraine. ;)



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Calm down there. This is not an attack on whatever China persecution complex that is - I'm simply pointing out the facts.

    China's trade is now so large and predominant with Russia, and Russia is so dependent on the parts it's providing - that many analysts have pointed out, quite obviously, there is a huge imbalance there.

    It's not an "equal" partnership. China has almost full access to the West whereas Russia pretty much doesn't. Russia's existing unsanctioned trade with Europe are down to fumes and it's energy exports to Europe (a few outliers aside) are steadily going the way of the Dodo. Pretty impressive considering just over two years ago we were massively reliant on Russia for our energy (which kept flowing evenly during the height of the Cold War).

    Who knows, maybe one day Xi Jinping will tire of his new vassal and issue orders to wind up their war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,751 ✭✭✭zv2


    After WW2 a lot of British children grew up with no father. This led to a lot of delinquency and crime. So after this war, Russian children…

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,438 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Will be raised communally north Korean style and see whichever dictator for life of Russia is as their father.

    We'll also see the proposed childless tax where a tax has to be payed if single men or women refuse to provide drone children to the regime.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    No, I think their relationship with Russia is much more important to Xi and the CCP than trade with Europe (or improvements to that in unlikely events Putin were somehow gone from the scene in future, and Russia-Europe relations got better).

    They are Russia's enabler here imo + a kind of silent partner in the background that help keep them fighting in Ukraine. They took careful note of the US "red line" set early in the war, and have slowly stepped right up to it and edged past it in places with what they are doing, as the war has dragged on. I expect that will get worse not better, esp. if it looks like Ukraine is having successes, also perhaps if they think that US "red line" is rhetorical (quite possible) and nothing will actually happen if they up their aid to Russia significantly.

    Lots of their own industrial stuff and technology in amounts the Russians cannot now get as easily/cheaply via sanctions busting. An open line on pretty much anything and everything the Russian war machine needs to keep firing bar actual put-together ready to use weapons. I also find it hard to believe a paranoid dictator like Kim Jong Un would be emptying out the artillery and missile stockpiles of NK for Russia's war unless Xi told him China was good for it all, and would rapidly backfill it. So that support to Russia is partly at their door as well.

    China doesn't need you to go to bat for them here. They are a horror-show dystopia. They have lots of talented and committed people whose job it is to keep the West's beak out of their firewalled internet/social media/app ecosystem and sow confusion + spew fud and posion over on the "free" side of the internet. They don't need more people doing it for nothing.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,409 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,409 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,409 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    More confirmation of the situation down south

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 264 ✭✭vswr




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,751 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,629 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    It's bizarre that you have the largest European War since WW2 and one of the main "winners" is North Korea.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭rogber


    No, just an awareness that history isn't a Hollywood movie that always delivers neat endings



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,424 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    On the good news side Ukrainians have recaptured territory east of Lyman and in the forest south of Kremina.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,278 ✭✭✭thomil


    I'm going to have to partially disagree with you here. I might have mentioned this before, but China's foreign policy is still massively influenced by the "Century of Humiliation", and one of Beijing's aims since the 1950s has been to never again be in a position where it would be at the risk of being subjugated by foreign powers. This, together with Mao's fanaticism, was one of the driving forces behind the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, and is still an active motivation behind Beijing's actions today. So just viewing China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine as a gambit to weaken the west is a bit simplistic as far as I'm concerned.

    Their support is equally aimed to weaken Russia and keep them in a state where the Kremlin is more or less dependent on Beijing to keep their nation running. Keep in mind that there have been significant border clashes between those two countries in the past. The PRC government is likely all too aware that a hyper-nationalist government like the Putin regime would sooner or later try to flex its muscles in its far eastern regions and will do their best to keep Russia just weak enough to prevent that. So the current situation of a "forever war" in Eastern Europe that keeps both the West and Russia off-balance is just what the doctor ordered, as far as Beijing is concerned.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭yagan


    The biggest problem with Russia is the same as when the USSR fell, no one wants to invest in a huge land area that spans 9 timezones. As is half of the Russian population lives in the western most 8th of the country. Putin has burned through what was left of the Soviet era military stock so basically Moscow's ability to retain control east of the Urals will be notional after the Putin era.

    As is China has land leases in far east Russia for solar and mining, so while a weaker Russia means easier terms for China it makes more sense to keep Russia intact rather than letting it implode entirely.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,455 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Incorrect dates, post deleted

    Post edited by jmreire on


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,752 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,278 ✭✭✭thomil


    I get where you're coming from, but I fear that your point falls into a trap I see western commentators on China make again and again. Namely, they see China's foreign policy through a western view point, which is of course understandable. The thing is that China is effectively unlike any other country on this planet. It has been a contiguous empire, more or less within its modern borders, since before the rise of the Roman Republic here in Europe. Unlike pretty much all other founding myths of great empires past and present, China's creation myth is not one of creation but of reunification, which would indicate at a history of empire even beyond the current records. And even when you take into consideration the numerous periods of internal schisms, the warring states period, etc., there was always a continuous tradition of administration & government going back to the mists of time. A country can't step away from several millennia worth of tradition, and even the CCP wasn't able to do so after they took power. Seriously, even Mao's little red book reads at times more like an old imperial text than a communist pamphlet.

    As such, China's foreign policy is rooted just as much in the ancient imperial practice of "managing barbarians" as it is in the modern "realpolitik" that we're used to. It's been a while since I read Henry Kissinger's "On China" (Which is a very definite reading recommendation by the way), but as far as memory serves, China has always seen itself as the one real nation on Earth. The concept of Tianxia, roughly translated to "Under Heaven", holds that all of the lands on Earth were appointed to the Chinese Sovereign by divine mandate, with the Tianzi, or "Son of Heaven", or as we would know him, the Emperor of China standing at the center of this world. Concentrically outward from this nadir, you'd have the numerous levels of Chinese bureaucrats within the empire proper, the tributary states and finally the "barbarians". And while everyone who submitted to the "Mandate of Heaven" would be accepted as part of the Chinese worlds, those that remained outside it could never be seen as equals.

    This is why, for much of Imperial China, foreign policy as a concept did not exist, because there simply were no other "real" countries. Right up until the fall of the empire in the early 20th century, China's approach to dealing with outside nations was akin to dealing with invaders coming in from the steppes of central Asia:

    • First, try to buy them off.
    • If that doesn't work, set them against each other
    • If this also fails, welcome them in and assimilate them

    The latter had worked on numerous occasions as invading nomadic tribes had often been won over by Chinese society and eventually submitted to the Mandate of Heaven, although that concept obviously fell flat on its face once the Western European colonial powers showed up from the 1830s onwards.

    Naturally, China's position towards other countries changed and evolved towards the latter years of the 19th century and in the 20th century, and both the Kuomintang and the CCP have taken a much more pragmatic approach to international politics. But as I said earlier, you can't just divorce yourself from several millennia of history and tradition, and for all their pragmatism, in many ways, even the CCP leadership subconsciously continue this tradition. I guess if one wanted to be extreme, you could consider the CCP just the next Imperial Dynasty ruling China, especially given that XI Jinping seems to be leaving behind some of the pragmatism of earlier post-Mao leaders and rekindling the concept of Tianxia.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 9 thatsdaft


    They did give up third largest nuclear weapons arsenal, destroyed planes and ran down military to a level where … Ireland out spent them

    So yes not only Ukraine was neutral but they self disarmed

    Which in hindsight was stupid, but it’s a lesson for others to stay as far away from Russia and their backwards colonial notions



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,751 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭Avatar in the Post


    Russia is weak now (relatively) with most of the Western world at Ukrainian’s back. Do a deal where Ukraine is back in the Russian orbit would be hell on earth and a an act of treachery by a Ukrainian leaders… but, I don’t expect that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,455 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, you are correct…. I was going by the headline here under:- It was only when I checked it, I saw the date on the bottom of the post.

    "Today's #protest in #StPetersburg, #Russia, where protesters blocked Nevsky Prospekt avenue:"



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Russia has slipped out of the top 10 global economies, now behind Italy, Canada and Brazil.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,751 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭Detritus70


    China has probably realised a long time ago that simply viewing all outsiders as ghosts and devils isn't realistic and doesn't work.

    "I'm not a Trump supporter, but..." is the new "I'm not a racist, but...".



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