NI - Westminster Election 2024

Continuing with the abuse then I see.

There was a time that everyone said that taking Dáil seats would destroy the party. It didn't.

I'm sure it is exhausting to insist a pattern of deciding the impossible and untenable is Fine Actually cannot continue is exhausting, with zero evidence, and just shouts and rants to back it up.

If there is a failed border poll, SF will go in to Westminster. I don't see another reason they would; but a failed border poll is exceptionally likely.

I've another hour left in me, so we'll see.

BBC NI not expecting a result until 3, going to be extremely hard to tease out rumours for that long.

I did say, somewhere on here, that I thought Alliance had a better chance of getting Lagan Valley and East Belfast than keeping North Down.

Long has not had a fantastic campaign so Lagan Valley could be it actually.

We never will. We're too attached to it.

I would be onboard for some electronic counting though.

The irony of our attachment to those great British impositions of county boundaries and PR-STV.

Some sources saying he's gone (Alliance/Long win); some saying he's not so nothing reliable.

No counts til 3 allegedly

The problem is - to let in who?

I suspect they'd find a 'volunteer' to let him take their Stormont seat - they're co-options not by-elections - and lead from there.

They had a strong candidate, but did not run her. But in general, there is no great interest in Westminster in the SF electorate, people wouldn't over exert themselves getting out to vote.

Not sure about losing three, FST perhaps, beyond that unlikely.

SF increase their majority to over 4,000 and hold FST, SF have held all 7 of their seats.

Ian Paisley loses North Antrim for DUP to Jim Allister (TUV), Sorcha Eastwood takes Jeffrey Donaldson's old seat in Lagan Valley for APNI, becoming the first woman and first non-Unionist to hold that seat. Robin Swann takes South Antrim in a landslide for UUP.

Looks like turnout is down to 58%, just East Derry results left to come.

A solid rejection of DUP from all quarters really.

East Derry result almost seismic and some tactical withdrawal from the SDLP could have seen Soupy losing his seat to SF.

Same with East Antrim where SF and SDLP withdrawal could have seen Alliance in and North Antrim where the same could have helped Junior. I'd sooner have him in that seat instead of the puce son of Monaghan that is Jim Allister.

Never really thought Flegory's seat was in play, so that result is very surprising. Going to be the last time it's DUP - he'll likely retire rather than be the one that loses it.

Did really think Gavin Robinson was gone - and there its not even a case of split votes as the margin is above what the SDLP and Greens got.

It was a long night watching the count but worth it to see Ian Paisley Jun stomping around the count refusing to talk,

Not surprised Naomi Long lost out, ruined her own campaign in many ways.
Not surprised by FST either, Armstrong's negative campaigning backfired on her.

Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley was surprisingly easy in the end.

East Antrim biggest surprise of the night.
Vote share:

Yup. It's infuriating.

I can see Reform unravel in the UK as they are full of contradictions and different expectations. Illustrated by the Reform Party itself backing Jim Allister while it's leader Farage backed Ian Paisley Jun.

Farage will not be a competent politician or leader I fancy.