BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION - 4TH JULY

Well, Boris was PM in 2019, so if there are deeper issues at play, how can you lay the blame at him and Sunak?

There is a worldwide phenomenon in the Western world where the centre is getting fragmented and the splits are not left vs right anymore, it's nativist vs globalist. Brexit was a victory for the nativists, but the political system or the parties are still realigning itself and FPTP doesn't do a good job at that.

More fragmentation is ahead I think.

What will the Tories do now and will there be any electoral reform?

Am very glad Labour won but that is very worrying that it only got 34% of the vote.Seems like Farage will try to take over the Tories or coopt them and try to compete with Labour.

I don't think that will work unless Labour plays a bad hand.

Is it a 5yr term. That is a long time and most people can see through Farage I think.

He seems very charismatic for idiots. hope he cannot do too much damage.

A comment I made to my wife this morning. Labour have won approx 64% of the seats on 34% of the vote, the Torys 18.5% of the seats on 23.5%, the LDs seat total is at least reflective of their vote share with 11% of seats on 12% of the vote contrast that with Reform who polled 14.3% of the votes cast yet only took 0.7% of the seats.

It's easy to ascribe the margin of the Labour victory to astute vote management. To being hyper aware of the foibles of vote management and exploiting them perfectly.

However, much as I took issue with the Tories taking 56% of the seats on 43.6% of the turnout in 2019. I take similar issue with the mandate Labour have achieved in terms of it being an awful expression of democratic intent.

I loathe the Tories but surely this result demonstrates the complete incompatiblity of FPTP with valuing every vote?

Reform and their capture 14.3% of the electorate for minimal return in seats, yes a lot of it was perhaps a Tory protest vote but, surely? Surely the inherently undemocratic voting process that allows for approx 66% of the votes won, to be disregarded when it comes to the foundation of a government must be challenged?

PR is a policy of the LDs and will no doubt become a cause celebre for Farage and Reform. I hate the thought of Reform being anywhere near the levers but? I genuinely believe that votes matter and that in a single seat constituency system, that victory should mean at least a 50% +1 share of the vote is required.

TLDR; I am delighted to see the Tories out of office and Labour with a secure majority. I am massively conflicted by the nature of the numbers underlying that win.

It’s barely a story, their share of the vote barely changed and they won today by default rather than Keir Starmer being the magnificent saviour of the country. The story is that the conservatives lost all their votes

I agree very much with all of that. I have the feeling that Starmer will be a better pm than he was a campaigner so there may be that at least.

34% used to be a threshhold for defeat.Very mixed feelings about the result but happy in the short term and good to see the good riddance of the gawky couple of LT and JRM.(and GG)

As much as i hate FPtP and am definitely not defending Boris he won 56% of seats from 43% of the vote which is vastly smaller to Starmers 63% from 33%. Also that election didnt have the stark differences of Reform vs Lib Dems on the same vote share but multiples of differences in seat share.

This election more than any in recent memory has shown just how undemocratic FPtP is, yes some may be opening their eyes to it now as its oppurtunistic for them to do so but if it leads to real electoral reform i dont see how its a problem.

If you are going to blame the Tories for all the wrongs of the UK, surely you have to take aim at Labour as well.

Blair, Brown and Corbyn especially have to put up their hands.

No doubt that Labour were by far the largest political grouping as the votes turned out .They need to capitalize on this by appealing to all the country insofar as that is possible.I wish them the best of luck.

Seems like "Perfidious Alba" is on the back burner for now /joke

Yes but because a Labour landslide was inevitable that changed the voting pattern in hardcore Labour areas. Vote share is just pointless because it tells nothing of the nuances and situation of an election.

It's just suddenly a handy way to discredit Labour.

Looks now like Labour have only been revived due to the Tories being so incredibly bad.

Asking for 'evidence' is pointless. It is always going to be a theoretical exercise. Pollsters and political commentators will spend years analysing the result but ultimately it can never be anything other than guesswork/theory.

Personally I would buy into the concept/idea that Labour didn't campaign in their heartlands (Liverpool, London, Newcastle) to the same extent as under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017&19, and thus accepted they would retain these safe seats with reduced majorities and number of votes. We can never have any evidence of this though, it is just something that can be theorized by the results in those type of constituencies.

Ok I will accept that(can you provide a reference that may seek to quantify it- and whether it is not counterbalanced to any degree on the Tory side?)

"Their average majority is a lot lower as their vote is far more efficiently spread."

Could you rephrase that.Not quite sure what you are saying.

Exactly you can't take anything from it. It was done using defined rules.

The structure of FPTP is terrible but you can't infer what would happen changing system as too much changes. Before it was a novelty that Boris won so many seats, now it is of import because labour over performed their vote.