NI - Westminster Election 2024

Aontu will be disappointed their conservatism gained little traction and their vote share fell. Not a good night for the socially conservative or fundamentalist.

I think the issue was a rejection of the one-sided condemnation junkies. Cullen simply wouldn't play ball with them howsoever she felt about the acts involved.
She was vindicated by an increased vote.

No real change up north overall, still roughly a 1/3rd split, three ways. We're a long way from any border poll.

If you have exactly 1/3 nationalist, 1/3 unionist and 1/3 unknown/other, there's an argument to make for a referendum. Especially if you look at the trend of nationalism (up) and unionism (down)

With SF the biggest party in Stormont, the HoC's and locally I think the pressure will be on Stammer/Hilary Benn to set out the criteria for a BP. Whether they do that or not remains to be seen but nationalism generally will want to see their performance recognised in some way.

That's a good idea, but unfortunately not in the scope of the GFA. The requirements are already clear. The Good Friday Agreement, states that a poll will be called by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK". 

As the great Bertie Ahern said, at the signing of the GFA:
The British Government are effectively out of the equation and neither the British parliament nor people have any legal right under this agreement to impede the achievement of Irish unity if it had the consent of the people North and South... Our nation is and always will be a 32-county nation. Antrim and Down are, and will remain, as much a part of Ireland as any southern county

Setting out what the SoS would consider to provide the appearance that it would be likely for a majority to vote for it certainly isn't a requirement, but it wouldn't be in any way contrary to the GFA either.

I don't think it would be particularly useful either way, but I don't think it is in any way prevented by the GFA.

The UK's highest court (Raymond McCord) has said the SoS is not constrained in any way. It specifically ruled that he/she could consider it politically appropriate and order a poll on that basis, if he/she wanted to.

Exactly.

So it's not directly for the UK government to lay out that plan in the HoC and unilaterally decide yes (or no), the mechanism is already there.

I'm actually not over estimating at all. I said I didn't know if Stammer/Benn would respond, but they will definitely come under pressure now that SF have performed in Stormont, HoC and locally. That's the change.

It won't. Despite the anti-SF rabble itching for them to do so for the "gotcha" moment if they do. Bizarre this has raised its head again. Though not unsurprising.

No not really. It's likely than most of the unionist third would vote No plus a substantial part of the Others plus a decent part of the Nationalist block. There's many in the latter and all three groupings in the public/ civil service and would prefer the divil you know, that the Dublin divils.

Besides which, such a poll needs an overwhelming Yes to have any success down South - my opinion and much disputed here by other posters. But that's how it is, we ain't buying any pig in a poke, just look at recent referendums.

The unionist vote is fracturing rather than diminishing rapidly.

Cameron's reasons for granting a Scottish were not based on parliament speech's but the electoral performance of the SNP.

Cameron responded to the electoral performance of ONE political party.
Being the most popular party in Stormont, the UK parliament and locally as well as growing their support by almost 5% gives SF some clout and they will use it. Whether Stammer responds or not is up in the air.
It would be foolish to think NI is just going to settle down now and go away.
He is not being asked for Irish Unity, just the spelling out of the criteria for a poll.

But for Aontú in East Derry it could be grimmer

What chaos/instability would setting out the criteria for a poll cause? It was a Unionist who tried to get them to do that via the courts.

The criteria is already set out. 

Oh come on. You know that is about as useful as an ashtray as criteria.
Sure Labour have stuff to deal with, but so do others.

Let me rephrase then,does anyone think,a UI would pass north of the border in the next 5 years? Seriously?

So whats the point in asking for one now?

Clarifying the criteria won't make the criteria be met any sooner and presumably the criteria wouldn't involve a certain no vote as would still be the case in this parliaments life time and beyond

I cannot understand why you'd run it at a certain risk of losing it and of course if you invite the DUP to Dublin castle and say right lads,we're here to build a plan for the new Republic any suggesstions,you know where you'd be told to go

Laa laa land at the moment