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USA 2024 presidential election

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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Congress need not set technical standards. They probably shouldn't, given examples like ATP flight hours requirements or gun control legislation, they don't understand what they're trying to regulate

    The recent SC ruling on the bump stock ban rather suggests that the court, in its current guise at least, very much won't accept anything other than Congress setting down every last bit of minutiae. That doesn't seem very viable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,099 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    For what its worth and maybe not to much, Harris fav or close to fav over Biden in betting markets.

    I'm not a massive fan tbf, but she'd have a decent chance against Trump mainly because we forget how toxic Trump is.

    Harris getting the nomination slightly flips the age issue, solidifies the female vote and ultimately she is better known than Newsom and Whitmer. Abortion also a rare issue the Dems are crushing the GOP on , she has been very much on front line of it which is obviously not a bad thing electorally.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Also, the problem with bypassing Harris is that it would likely enrage quite a lot of the black vote - particularly black women. No Democrat can win without any overwhelming majority of that demographic.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    What happens if Biden were to resign now?

    So, Kamilla Harris becomes President, but how is the VP selected? Do the Democrats have control of the Senate to appoint the VP?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    She would nominate a VP who would have to be confirmed by the Senate, which it would be.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    In that case, would she be at an advantage by being President compared to being VP nominated to be the Dem Party candidate?

    Would she be able to play the age and senile card against Trump? Or be better to just use the convict card? Or the compulsive liar? Or even that he is known to cheat at golf?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Imagining a scenario where the Republicans control the Senate and refuse to back any VP nomination on the basis that anyone that isn't to the right of Marjorie Taylor Greene is a communist.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,099 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    As I said in a previous post, the fallout of ignoring Harris would be terrible so if somehow they skip over her, the person would need be a cert to beat Trump. Newsom and Whitmer aren't .

    Harris is polling better v Trump than those 2 also. I think their would be a lot of goodwill towards her if its done very amicably. However if somehow if it was to go a convention yes it would be entertaining but a lot of bad blood and that's what Trump will be hoping for.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think if Biden is not going to run, he should resign as Pres now. It will do him no harm but will derail Trump.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Not to mention that would put Mike Johnson next in line after the President.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    To be clear, the agency in question in this latest case has ended the challenged program and refunded the monies it collected. This case should have been dismissed, but the opportunity it afforded the conservatives was too great to pass up.

    I find it rather funny that you argue from a position that Federal Agencies have overstepped their remits in how they interpret law, yet seemingly have no issues with the Court positioning itself as ultimate authority on all issues. A role not granted in the Constitution whatsoever. Those decades of lawsuits were from aggrieved businesses who objected having their activities curtailed for the public good. I'll certainly accept that there can be misguided efforts by government agencies, but i can recognize that the vast majority of the time, they are trying act in a way to protect people and nature, rather than businesses. Which is the real issue for conservatives.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Of course they ended the challenged program. It shouldn't have existed to begin with, and it shouldn't have been defended as a concept to the highest court, which it was. So just as well it was ruled upon. Maybe in future such excesses can be dealt with now at a lower court than the Supreme Court, which has had to be the case until now. Last week isn't the first time that SCOTUS found against an agency.

    You seem to be convinced it's an either/or position, that there is no place in the US system for a regulatory agency in which its acknowledged technical/scientific expertise tends to hold sway, but does not have automatically bootstrapping of its own regulations to correctness, especially in areas which are not directly related to its area of focus. This is, of course, not so.

    As to the court being the ultimate authority on all issues… Within the legislation, they are. Nothing is legal if the Supreme Court says it isn't. (And since 1803, they are the authority over legislation as well.) That seems little different from Ireland: It's the Supreme Court which is the ultimate arbiter of the meaning of legislation in Ireland, to include pronouncing acts of the Oireachtas as unconstitutional if necessary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    To your last point, there's no basis in the Constitution for them having powers of Judicial Review. That was the court seizing power, kinda like what you're accusing Agencies of doing. Difference being there's oversight of Agencies, and absolutely none for the Supreme Court.

    I believe in a common sense approach that allows Agencies to adapt their regulations to emerging data and circumstances. For example, the FCC classifying the internet with the same status as tv and radio waves for oversight. Something vehemently opposed by business as it would impede their exploitative practices. A common feature of this debate.

    I feel you are arguing in bad faith here, where you present an option of Congress taking action address emergent issues, when you know this isn't the case. The Republicans refuse to engage in governance, responsible or otherwise. You are also aware, I'm sure, that Republicans have been engaged in efforts to use the courts as a way to allow the Supreme Court to make rulings in their favor. Bypassing the need for legislation, the very reason you're arguing in support of this most recent decision. Pushing extreme cases through the court system, failing upwards at every level in the hopes that they can get in front of this extremist Supreme Court. This is a strategy developed and nurtured by the Federalist Society and other organisations, and we've seen the fruit it has born this week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,582 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    White House Press Secretary live just now talking about Biden's health, she would give the former Iraqi Information Minister a bloody good run for the money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users Posts: 24,073 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    The word spreading is that Biden sits down with his family and inner circle tomorrow night, and may announce as soon as Sunday that he will no longer seek re-election, but see out the term until January.

    Same sources put VP Harris as a shoo-in to move to the top of the ticket. But they will have to stage manage some sort of confirmation at the Democratic Convention in Chicago five weeks later, and of course select a running mate, which in itself is an interesting challenge.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Hopefully not, they seem quiet defiant today but who knows.

    Hard to see how he would stay on bar a complete detachment from reality. Which is ironically what is happening to him.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    He is also doing an interview with ABC on Friday so I wouldn't consider it that much a definite.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,073 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You mean he has an interview scheduled with ABC on Friday.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    In the meantime twitter is full of people attempting to gaslight everyone about what was seen in that debate.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Yeah maybe. I guess we'll find out in the next couple days.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I would be very surprised if Harris gets anointed like that. Newsom and Whitmer are not going to want to have to wait for another 4-8 yrs for their shot, and they know Harris is a weak candidate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Looking at the New Yorker magazine article on Biden, wild that such a Democrat leaning magazine would gut him like that.

    2 weeks ago they wouldn't have admitted even a slight problem lest the Democrats gut them.

    I think the party machine is trying to build such pressure on the Biden's that they crack. The family seem determined to fight back against the carpet baggers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I agree that 1803 was, in effect, a power grab, though in this case, a fairly fortuitous one. How many constitutional republics don't have a power of judicial review in their judiciary? Who else should have it instead?

    You accuse me of arguing in bad faith, but I think it's because you don't believe it's possible for a rational person to disagree with you on this. The only conceivable reason remaining would be be lack of faith.

    I don't fear Republicans, Democrats, Greens, Libertarians, American Independence or any other group (does the US have a Monster Raving Loony Party?), though I certain well disagree with various policy positions held by all of them. I believe the system is stronger than that, and that, importantly, it's biased in favor of lenity towards the citizenry, which is a good thing.

    If are concerned as to the future of the regulatory agencies under Republican pressure, then consider the amount of damage which could be done if they regain control of the government. Under Chevron, they could sabotage the agencies and their regulatory positions as much as they wanted and there wouldn't be a damned thing anyone could do about it (bear in mind that Chevron doctrine was in effect invented to protect government deregulation). Since you bring up Net Neutrality, what was the difference in the position of the FCC under Obama, then under Trump and then under Biden? If an agency can arbitrarily reverse course 180 degrees at the whim of whoever is in charge without any legislative guidance, I submit that this is a problem. Again, though, I observe that without Chevron, regulatory agencies are not, and never have been toothless. https://www.yalejreg.com/nc/with-or-without-chevron-deference-agencies-have-extensive-rulemaking-authority/

    Absolutely none of the above, however, is relevant to the case which actually resulted in the final demise of Chevron after the death of a thousand cuts it had already suffered. That had nothing to do with policy positions, or if something was or was not good practice for the environment or business. Much as Congress may be lethargic in establishing authorities for agencies, it is equally lethargic in establishing protections and limitations against them, and I would submit that in a liberal democracy, the most important function of a court is the protection of rights against government overreach, because absent armed insurrection, I'm not sure what other options there are.

    If you disagree with that statement, fine. I can understand and even agree with your points even if I disagree with their relative priority in the grand scheme of things. I simply ask that you acknowledge that it's a different policy position that you may have, not that it's "bad faith".



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The debate was a pivotal moment. Pivotal moments change people's stances. I know that it changed mine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Manic, you're arguing as though we live in a functioning Democracy, where one party isn't actively trying to dismantle it. The Dominionists have been explicit about their goals and how they intend to secure them. Using the SC to overturn long standing precedent and protections is their main weapon to achieve them.

    I would argue there's also quite a difference between political appointees to agencies and the rank and file careerists working there. Why did Net Neutrality change over the years? Trump came in and let the foxes run the henhouse. I would hold to the belief that most agencies are run by people who consistently try and do the right thing, who advocate for regulations that would benefit the public. Removing their ability to effectively implement those isn't going to help anyone, bar businesses.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,309 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Except for the president; because now the president can do anything they want and they can not, and will not, be prosecuted due to the SC immunity they invented on the spot. Which means yes, Biden could call in a seal 6 team (he only need to find a group willing to do it in the military; does not matter if their direct commander refuses the order) to kill Trump. Or have the DOJ create fake evidence to prosecute someone; and that would not be illegal nor something he could be prosecuted for because it's an official act of the president. All hail the king because the king can do no wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,582 ✭✭✭amandstu


    "Or have the DOJ create fake evidence to prosecute someone"

    That seems incredibly likely.Not as if Trump doesn't already have form in this area.

    His gang of cronies will be emboldened to facilitate his every whim and the judiciary will be terrified to rule against him(if they are still in office)

    What is MAGA lingo for Kristallnacht ?

    First they will go for the migrants...



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Really an impossible question for Biden to ask him if he would stand aside if the Democratic leadership says he needs to. If he says yes, he's immediately goosed. If he says no, he's selfish and delusional.



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