General Irish politics discussion thread

You can make the same argument the other way, that FPTP keeps out extremists.

Corbyn was too extreme for the middle ground so was never going to be PM.

If there was a PR-STV system in the UK, we would be waking up to a Tory/Reform coalition, not a Labour landslide.
Its a bit of a paradox in a way, as one of the reasons why people are unhappy with the Tories (and Labour) is that they are or were too centrist. So these other parties are set up, and may get some support but ultimately the system works against them. Therefore the more centrist and established parties continue to win.

The only way for extremists to come to power is to take over a party from within, like what Trump did in the GOP.
I don't see Farage taking over the Tory party.

Look at the French system. It's a kind of FPTP with a few guardrails. But the presidential election is really FPTP in round 2, which is designed to keep out an extremists i.e Le Pen

This is not any real advantage, it is a mild convenience. Ultimately it matters not at all.

I beg to differ.

People know who won and who lost.

People know who has power and who lost it.

Often here and in Europe, the election is a sideshow for months of negotiations between various parties to come up with an acceptable programme for government and what is contained in said programme can be anyone's guess.

Take 2019.

FF and FG both lost seats and votes, yet remained in government. Did the people really vote for that? Maybe, maybe not. Who knows.

In Ireland we have escaped the worst excess of this because both FF and FG are quite pragmatic, but over time we will see more and more instability as FF and FG vote share will decline and more ideological parties take to the fore.

And also, we compare ourselves to the UK for lots of things.

PR-STV isnt a bad system per say, but it does have weaknesses to it.

We will find out in due course when we have our own election in some months to come. We will be lucky to have a new government by Christmas unless FF and FG get a jump in support.

You are of course free to make an argument like that but the reality is FPTP is a horrible system which is most assuredly much easier for extremists to take control of power from as we have seen in both the UK and the US. Not the pure speculation you put forth as to what may or may not have happened if the UK election used a form of PR.

https://x.com/AlanEnglish9/status/1809519491832844610

Fascinating Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll tomorrow…. I'd be tempted to call it a marmalade-dropper.

this on top of all the great sport today, my dodgy ticker might give out…

But Bagge ran with this system (with the backing of Rory Stewart), to specifically unseat Liz Truss.

I'd say it has to be at least a -5 for Alan English to be as excited as he seems..

Here it is, down to 18%

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/poll-sinn-fein-fall-to-their-lowest-level-of-support-since-2020/a1258518581.html

Maybe someone with a sub can fill in the details?

After the election? I reckon she'll step down of her own accord if SF aren't in government. Very hard to see them get to the next level under her leadership if it doesn't happen this time…

Very hard to read anything substantial into the Greens' fortunes from that 4% though. Aontu are also on 4% but they have pretty much no chance of winning more than one seat…

Not sure we can take that as read. Greens becoming increasingly estranged from the other two parties since the recent election campaign, prospective leader Roderick talking up an alliance with Labour & Soc Dems.

 Green Party chair Pauline O’Reilly told the Irish Daily Mail that a spate of political attacks on their candidates from Coalition colleagues had ‘eroded trust’ and it is now ‘very difficult’ to see how they could share power again in a future government.

State of established Parties (FF&FG) will probably need fresh blood for the upcoming GE?

https://www.con-telegraph.ie/2024/07/06/fianna-fail-crisis-in-mayo-deepens-and-deepens/

Fresh blood is a struggle for Fianna Fáil in Mayo and it could prove fatal for the long-term chances of the party coming into an election when they will need to stamp out clearly their identity as somewhat different to Fine Gael, particularly in this Blueshirt stronghold.

Is it the same in other counties?

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/07/06/trickle-of-fine-gael-departures-risks-turning-into-a-flood-as-election-moves-closer/ ~ Archive Link

Party headquarters ordered this week that all selection conventions must take place by September 22nd. … nearly all new candidates will come from the ranks of recently elected councillors. That will be true for the other parties, too. All are poring over the local results to see the men and women mostly likely to win or hold Dáil seats.

With both parties relying on fresh blood!? It is very hard now to see the possible make up of next goverment?

Hopefully Eoin is wrong below and we are not relying on Aontu to hold the centre?

Incase you missed it 'imploded' because of Ciaran Mullooly joining 'Renew Europe'!

Don't think Mayo is a good choice to illustrate the supposed struggles of the government parties. With SF slumping in the polls FF & FG have a more than decent chance of taking 4/5 seats, especially if Michael Ring runs again. Even 3 would be a good result in terms of accumulating the numbers to form another government…

It is very hard now to see the possible make up of next goverment?

Not looking hard to me. If the results of the latest opinion poll are borne out in the GE, and transfer patterns from the recent elections are maintained, FFG should have a good tilt at a overal majority. If they come say 5 or 6 seats short, they will likely have multiple options for making up the numbers…

You seem to want it each and every way.

If the UK had some sort of PR system, there would have been a huge block of votes on the right, who would have made it a condition of Brexit and migration for any formation of government. That would mean any centre right/Tory government would have had to compromise with them for power.

The UK do not have nor has had any far-right party in power.

The National Front are on the cusp in France, AFD is rising in Germany, Gert Wilders has power in Holland with PVV, Meloni has power in Italy, Orban has power in Hungary, in Austria the FPO are on course to be the lead party in Austria.

These are actually far-right/populist right-wing governments and parties.

One Nation Tory is not that.

I'm curious which extremist governments in 20th Century Europe you think would have been prevented by FPTP voting?

I'm assuming you're primarily alluding to the Nazis? Didn't Herman Goering argue that with FPTP voting, they would've taken every seat in the Reichstag? None of the 1932 elections gave the Nazi party a majority, and the March 1933 election was by no means a fair election. I'd imagine the Nazi Party would've held a massive majority government much sooner with FPTP.

The term for that is, shifting the Overton Window. The classic example is Trump saying outrageous things, that a week later are taken as normal, because something more outrageous has taken its place.

Four elections and six prime ministers in under a decade decisive? Dread to image what you think indecisive is..

Ah yes. Decisively winning a huge majority on 33.8% of the vote.

Decisive.