Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/07/05/developer-bartra-asked-to-cut-back-scale-of-bradys-pub-development/

nimbys forever winning

It's a 210 bed "co-living" scheme. In other-words, it's a modern-day tenement, and we know precisely what the state would love to do with that.

There is a huge fallacy here; Ireland is a country of home ownership. This is the policy of the State enacted by our governments. We do not have a developed rental market for a reason and it is because the policy is for people to buy their own home. As a result, all houses within Dublin city should be affordable for people earning Dublin salaries but unfortunately existing homeowners have hijacked policy and directed resources to inflating their own house prices which makes the home ownership policy a pipe dream in Dublin for people that work there. The same people cheering on “housing for me but not for thee” policies see also blocking rental developments and public transport expansions through their Dublin villages. Now we are effectively seeing gaslighting with these “affordable homes” with posts such as yours. Quite simply, attitudes such as yours do not see a housing crisis - as you do not think house prices are severely overvalued in Ireland because it would probably mean that your own house is overvalued significantly!

As I said, Ireland is a country of home ownership and therefore neglects its rental market in terms of renter protection and ensuring an adequate supply of suitable rentals for all types of tenants. This is on purpose and is what is accepted since the primary goal in our housing market is to have people own their own home. The government has literally inflated house prices and decreased supply of homes to buy on purpose in an almost criminal act and in defiance of a stated home ownership policy. There is no other city to compare Dublin with in Europe for its size as renting is more common in cities which are typically brought up so you can’t compare. Seeing houses in Coolock at the top of an affordability ceiling for most potential first time buyers despite being brought to market “below market price” (which we know is artificially inflated by political intervention) is a catastrophic failure of policy and dereliction of duty from FF and FG who have ensured this state of affairs.

“Fine Gael is the party of home ownership” - how is €450k for houses in Coolock supposed to ensure people can access homes to buy?

https://www.finegael.ie/housing/

You should spend a little more time reading posts rather than writing your own ranting ones.

Or are you of the opinion that it is normal and expected that houses in Coolock should be priced beyond the means of 100k+ earners?

Go back and read what you are responding to.

I replied to another poster who appeared to have the position that houses in Coolock should be that price due to their "closeness' to the city. In that reply I mentioned that it isn't all that close in reality for the size of Dublin. In addition, if the poster thought that Coolock should be beyond a 100k (unsubsidised) person, then I asked how far out they'd expect a teacher to have to go.

That chain of back and forth started when I said it was ridiculous that people on 100k were considered as needing subsidies to buy a house in Coolock. You then took issue with that and said

Quite simply, attitudes such as yours do not see a housing crisis - as you do not think house prices are severely overvalued in Ireland because it would probably mean that your own house is overvalued significantly!

Ireland does not have a functioning rental market (agreed). Therefore Ireland should be able to produce abundant affordable housing in its capital city, which no other country in the world has managed to do….if only it were that simple.

It’s a nice idea but it’s just not going to happen. Anyone who tells you it is is selling a pipe dream.

Fixing the rental market is a much more realistic aim.

In a survey of build costs released this week 2 cities on the same island 150km apart came top and bottom of the table

Are we striving with taxpayers money to make the problem worse or better?

If we agreed to stop making the situation worse that would be a significant step forward.

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People see Coolock from a subjective view and lose the plot over the price, in reality it's relatively close to the city centre, and a lot of the people buying in places like Coolock are not from Dublin, or even Ireland, and don't have a pre-conceived notion of what price point that area should be.

I would have thought a fully rational thinker would understand that inner city areas are not immune from social problems. Where would you move those poverty riddled occupants to if Dublin 1 was redeveloped into an affluent area for high income earners?

Make no mistake, the inner city area you refer to is indeed prime real estate, the problem with making it what you think it should be, is getting all the current inhabitants out, so those high price homes you think should be there, can be built for you young guns.

Dublin 1 is empirically not prime real estate in the housing market, as the current property prices per sqm vs actual prime real estate in Dublin show very cleary.

The social problems are exactly why its not prime real estate. And why neither is Coolock.

Keep telling yourself that. Property, like everything else, goes in cycles. If you look at price history from 2012 to now you can see the accumulation phase from 2013-2021 and then the bull trap from 2022-2023 you can even see the “double top” with the first peak in 2022 and we are about to make the second peak now. Housing supply hit an all time low in March 2024 but is rising steadily now. It’s an 18 year cycle. You’d be a fool to buy now. Unemployment is rising and more supply is coming to the market next year. Potential buyers should be patient, conserve their capital and credit. And their job.

We are clearly in stage 3 but the cycle could be 20 years. Would you wait another 4 years to buy and probably another 2 before they had dropped enough? Then the narrative is they'll never stop falling, those same people won't buy then either. I certainly wouldn't wait and didn't.

People who are paying attention and doing some legwork, which I would hazard includes the vast majority on this forum, will see the signs occurring well in advance of any actual drop. So far new builds are at 100% occupancy long before completion. So we're not quite there.

Somewhere in the midlands some time from now there will be an estate built that won't hit 100% occupancy, perhaps 95%, not a big deal, shortly followed up by another, and that will most likely be the first bell tolling. If some eagle eyed hawk spots this they will of course be told sure that's just the midlands. Who knows, maybe the foreign workers start going home in their droves from the tech jobs and nobody notices. Whatever it is, it most likely hasn't happened yet.