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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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    #24242
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122353951#Comment_122353951

    I don't it's anywhere near demand, and that won't change short of something happening outside of Ireland to arrest the population rise here. I can't see what that would be.

    Besides this, even if a crash is on the way, it may not arrive for years. Housing isn't like bitcoin or shares. For most of us, it's not an asset at all; it's a place to live. I bought in 2022 because waiting for me wasn't an option.



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    #24243
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users Posts: 3,605 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122353261#Comment_122353261

    that is the most brainless post since all those people said the top was reached back at the end of last year, and then that prices would fall during covid and thered be a recession 2 years ago

    Housing supply is not rising , it is going down, what are you even basing this on? The number of houses on the market?



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    #24244
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,475 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122354280#Comment_122354280

    You can go back a lot further than that for predictions on this thread, some were saying “don’t buy, prices have to fall” years ago, anyone who did that has, in all probability, paid a small fortune in rent up to today.



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    #24245
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122354280#Comment_122354280

    ’keep your powder dry’ was every second post for a while.
    10 years of prices rises was often cited as a sure thing ‘the cycle’ had to end soon…ignoring that prices have only registered 4 annual drops in the last 50 years and there was a 37 year upward only ‘cycle’ from 1970 to 2007. I’m sure it was probably increasing before 1970 as well but that’s as early as CSO have data!

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-ieu50/irelandandtheeuat50/economy/residentialpropertyprices/



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    #24246
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,989 ✭✭✭Blut2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122353592#Comment_122353592

    Thats all true, but theres one other very fundamental fact of the current Irish property market.

    The population of Ireland is increasing by 100k+ per year. While we're building approx 32k housing units per year. And the average numbers of humans in a housing unit in Ireland is 2.7, and falling.

    On top of that yearly worsening of the problem we already have a deficit of circa 250k housing units, and need thousands of units per year to replace existing older stock.

    We're not building enough homes (approx 40k required) just to house the yearly population growth, nevermind anything else.

    We're never going to have a crash (or even mild drop, or even price stabilization) while the population growth is so much higher than the housing unit completions.



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    #24247
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122354673#Comment_122354673

    This. The bucket is full, but the tap hasn't been turned off. Until that changes, there will be no correction in prices. To put it another way, we're not building our way out of a housing crisis.



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    #24248
    monkeybutter
    Registered Users Posts: 3,605 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122354546#Comment_122354546

    thats why i put a time limit on the stupidity

    at least with covid we were staring into an unknown, potential financial disaster, made some sense

    people just can't get their heads around the simple fact that prices aint going to fall in such a tight market

    new housing is more expensive than the existing stock and thats the only source of new supply, even the prices of second hand houses is just covering the real costs when everyone is putting 100k plus into these houses.



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    #24249
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭tigger123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122354546#Comment_122354546

    Ive been in and out of this thread since 2017, and people have consistently predicted that the ar5e was about to fall out of the market any day now.



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    #24250
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,945 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122354673#Comment_122354673

    History is littered with markets underpinned by strong fundamentals until all of sudden they weren't. And that tends to coincide with sentiment.

    Yes Ireland's population is increasing by 100k a year - that's a fact. But it is also a fact that our recent population increase is one highest incidence of population growth recorded by any country in history.

    Whether or not we sustain that rate, and for how long, nobody knows - it's an assumption not a fact.

    The idea that we have a deficit of 250k houses is disputed by both the Central Bank and Housing Europe. If there is not broad agreement on the size of deficit, if any, it cannot be regarded as a fact.

    And even a cursory glance at the methodology used to calculate the 250k deficit shows that it is underpinned by some pretty shaky assumptions.

    The point I was making about traditional asset valuations, leading indicators, fundamentals etc is that Irish property is different so the strength of these assumptions.

    If you were going to drop 500k on any other asset class you'd take a deeper look at the fundamentals and make a judgment call on whether or not the population growth assumptions are sustainable or whether or not the deficit maths stacks up, and probably conclude that they don't.

    But it is not so important on a 500k house in Coolock - a) you're probably a forced buyer and b) as long as the government is telling you it is an affordable house, they'll have your back if the assumptions they're relying on turn out to be wrong.

    TLDR - As long as people believe (market sentiment) that the population will continue to rise at the same rate it has done recently and that there is a deficit of 250k houses, I agree prices will not fall. And there is certainly no indication that anybody is likely to question these assumptions anytime soon.



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    #24251
    SpoonyMcSpoon
    Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122350184#Comment_122350184

    I agree that our political parties are not going to solve it because, unfortunately, due to a number of factors which mainly revolve around willpower (ie to see "affordability" achieved together with increased supply necessarily involves hits to rents and house prices), the appetite is not there to "fix the problem".

    At the same time, I don't think it is all or nothing; house prices and rents do not need to plummet and nor should they in order to achieve better supply and affordability. Unfortunately, people who are happy with their housing situation are also guilty of thinking that any talk of their house price declining means a crash in their house price; in the same way that those exasperated at the current situation are craving a collapse in house prices and rents. Ireland seems to be great at doing extremes; there is either way to much or far to little, when it comes to housing. While there is never an equilibrium, the swings in supply and affordability are ridiculous.



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