Emmanuel Macron dissolves French parliament and calls snap elections

It's a bit of a bizarre result, if you look at the details for round 2 only.

NR got approx 37% of the vote in round 2, but only got 104 seats.

Macrons' ensemble got 24% of the vote and got 157 seats.

New Populist Front got 26% of the vote and got 148 seats.

It seems the goal of everyone was to keep the NR out.

How long is that sustainable though, and as the dust settles who is going to govern from now on in?

Many in the NPF are quite extreme in their outlook and would be an economic disaster for France.

100 % - i do not get the people saying Macron played a blinder?

Sure, LePen did not win the election, but he has opened the door for them now at the cost of a very very fragile government or none at all.

Le Pen is seen as major issue but members of NPF as just as bad if not worse.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure if he was right to call it, but maybe he was thinking the alternative is he is a lame duck and trying to forestall a virtual wipeout for the Centrists next time round.

The question is who will the French public blame for the instability, Macron for calling the election, or the popular front who as largest party have to try to manage it in parliament. The stresses of the instability and hung parliament may break apart the popular front.

I think the question is why he ever thought it could work: there were basically four possible outcomes* of which only one was a good one from his PoV. Perhaps he’s just an inveterate gambler.

Either that or he is so detached from the rest of the country that he took his desires for reality. King Canute (though I think that story has been misread and that Canute was in fact trying to show his courtiers that he was not all powerful!)

I’m amazed that so many posters and commentators are presenting this as a clever tactical move by Macron.

* the four options being: any one of the three main blocs to have a majority, but only one of which would be his, or else for there to be a hung parliament, opening the way to chaos.

I meant lame duck in a reputational sense. As your note, he would still have the seats in Parliament - but maybe felt like he'd lost mandate for change.

I'm just trying to think through what his rationale was for the gamble.

side by side election reactions:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/s/BzP7fV2bzT

They might have stopped the far right from getting in, but instead they have opened the door to the far left.

This is not a victory for Macron or centrism.

I don't get these type of posts, these were so 2016.

It reminds me of..

They were so focused on Le Pen, they forgot how bad communism and the rest of the far left spectrum is. The next 2 years will (more than likely) be chaos and all Le Pen has to do is sit there and watch.

Why not?Is FN's continuous rise written in stone?

It has lasted a very long time.Maybe FN is a known quantity in France.(deplorables)

If the opposing parties desisted mutually in important seats then mathematicaly there "normal" representation as a percentage of the votes is underestimated and FN's correspondingly elevated.

Melanchon is not popular even with many who have stayed in his party, others have left. Yes, they're will be a lot of posturing and negotiation. Attal, has been asked to stay on, for now, (the last bit conveniently omitted by one poster).

NF will always exist. Of course concerns can be real and have to be addressed but the French are well within their rights to lock them out of complete power if they judge it right.

I didn't follow the arguments in this campaign as to why they were not considered safe with the keys of power but I can think of one good reason and it concerns Ukraine and Russia.

Reason enough for me.

"Now they are the most popular party in France (by vote numbers)."

Also the most unpopular

"

Because they are so unpopular with the majority of the country... as reflected in voting pact to keep them out. Thats a serious level of unpopularity.

You realise it is possible for a party to be popular and unpopular at the same time?

What matters wrt National Rally is their unpopularity with the majority of the electorate is outrunning their popularity with a portion of it.

In Irish terms they are transfer toxic.

So who is the most unpopular party?

Stalemate.

Fact - thats not the definition of gerrymandering. So thats your post discrediting itself at the first fence.

An election pact is not gerrymandering. No boundaries were redrawn.

An election pact formed because of the unpopularity of the far right.

An election pact that received more votes and more than twice as many seats as the far right.

So in the contest between how popular the far right is, versus how unpopular the far right is - unpopular won out in votes and seats. They are not merely unpopular, they are repulsively unpopular.

Course it won't.

Macron will spend the next few days picking off the old Socialist Party and the Greens from the New Popular Front, and along with Les Republicains they can build a centrist coalition that will keep Le Pen stewing until the end of the decade. Not too dissimilar from FG/FF/Green in this State.

A deal of the sort I describe will command a majority of 307 out of 577. And it will give them time to mould a unity candidate for President in '27.

Indeed, Marine Tondelier, leader of environmental party 'Les Écologistes', is already been talked about in those terms.

Bit of a gish gallop there.

Noticeable on the one hand you talk of hate on one side yet remaining in the EU on the other.

Does Le Pen hate the EU? It is the standard you have set in your posts.

Melancon isnt calling for France to leave the EU. He may 'hate' the EU but in practice he is part of a coalition of the new popular front.

The concern with Le Pen on the other hand was the far right with a majority in parliament.

Can you point out what policies of the popular front are anti EU or out of step with the majority French opinion on the EU?