NI - Westminster Election 2024

It wasn't a personal attack, it was a genuine observation based on your previous history of responding to people by copy and pasting their answer into ChatGPT and just copy/pasting the response directly in.

I work with generative AI on a daily basis (though to be clear, I'm not on the coding side of things). I understand and am quite impressed with ChatGPT, but also understand it's frailties. You seem to think it is a panacea for saving you make any modicum of effort.

It is useful as a starting point; your dependence on it to provide your entire answers without any effort to even proof read, just copy/paste, let alone understand or extrapolate beyond whatever it feeds you......it betrays the ignorance of the middle aged thinking they're, 'down with the kids'.

That aside, if I've misunderstood where you're coming from, please tell me

a) what is so 'interesting' about those numbers and

b) how that aligns with your rabid defense of FPTP

You've literally posted on the (conveniently for you, what appears to have been deleted), 'why I'll say no to Unification' thread on multiple occasions stating, 'I've pasted X into ChatGPT and it said ______'.

This is where it first became apparent that you don't really understand ChatGPT, Downcow.

Edit: fortunately a quick search shows that you've done it outside that thread as well; from January this year.

Your post on that page opens with exactly what I said, direct copy/paste from ChatGPT per your own admission;

I shouldn’t play your silly games, but I did list several eg (a direct quote from the internet from chat gpt - I haven’t changed a word) . Now maybe you will share some distinct Irish culture that exists nowhere else (your test), or would you like a few more northern Irish ones first?

On the previous page you had

I can give you a long list but we all know, like any culture, they will be replicated on occasion in other places. So your silly test cannot be met.

but for the crack I asked chat gpt and here is its response:

And like I said, multiple occasions on the, 'Why I'll say no to Unification' thread.

It is obvious when you do it because the tone, language and structuring are completely different from your usual posting. There's not a hope in hell your, 'defense' of FPTP wasn't copy/pasted.

But that wouldn't be particularly meaningful.

One of the features of the UK's frankly crapulous electoral system is that it doesn't reward parties for getting high vote totals. If a party wins a seat with a majority of 100 votes, that gives the the same representation in Parliament as if they won it with a majority of 20,000 votes.

The result of that, as Keir Starmer understands but Jeremy Corbyn evidently didn't, is that the route to success does not lie in getting the maximum number of votes, but in getting your votes in the right places.

Both parties and voters respond to this. Parties respond by, e.g., adopting policies designed to win votes in marginal constituencies, even if those policies will alienate some party supporters in safe seats (see, e.g., Labour's stance on Gaza) or by picking and choosing which seats to run candidates in. In other words, parties may intentionally chase a lower vote in order to maximise their seats. And voters also respond, e.g., by voting not for the party whose policies most closely align with their own but for a party with whom they have some policy differences, but that can win the seat.

All of this means you can't treat votes in a general election as anything but a very rough proxy for support for a party's position.

In 2019, on the figures given, votes for unionist parties were 108.6% of votes for nationalist parties. In 2024, votes for unionist parties were 110.4% of votes for nationalist parties. Obviously, unionists will be happier about that than if the situation were the other way around, but the truth is that given the host of factors that affect voting choice, a movement of this magnitude is well within the margin of error. This is a pretty meaningles statistic.

One of Hilary Benn's first comments of note since being appointed NI Secretary was announcing that the Casement rebuild will go ahead.

Nothing groundbreaking, he hasn't promised a blank cheque, has made it clear that he can't promise it will be ready in time for the Euros, but it is good to see that it is a significant enough topic for him to discuss on his first working day after being appointed to the role. A quick affirmation of their commitment means the Euros are still potentially on the table at least.

I'm also eager to see whether Labour follow through on their promise to scrap the Troubles Legacy Act.

I've a lot of time for Hilary Benn, and I think finally having a competent SoS for NI will help ease tensions between both communities. While I've of course specifically mentioned two issues that would be seen as important to the Nationalist community, I expect him to be a good mediator and I do think he will be pretty even-handed when it comes to how he deals with both.

Interesting to compare with the 2017 Westminister elections, the last under the leadership of Gerry Adams.

Sinn Fein got 238,915 votes then, with a 29.4% share of the vote.

Under Michelle, the votes have fallen to 210,891 with a 27.0% share of the vote.

The nationalist share of the vote has fallen from 41.1% of the vote to 38.1% of the vote. With the unionist share of the vote also declining (but remaining ahead of the nationalist share), the real story is the continued rise of the middle ground.

FPTP voting and differing political circumstances at the time. As you're well aware, comparing elections where SF stood in all constituencies to 14/18 already makes it a pointless comparison.

You're painfully transparent, Blanch...but you're not a fool. A substantial amount of that, 'growing middle ground' vote was a borrowed Nationalist vote used to vote against DUP.

I've called it out from the other side when the, 'SF are the largest party, border poll tomorrow' type arguments are made, and I'll call it out in your case too. You absolutely can't read into broader trends from FPTP voting results with no context.

Even putting the tactical considerations of FPTP voting aside, it accounts for a huge percentage 'drop' you're claiming for SF/Nationalist from 2017 to 2024 on its own, Blanch.

That is the point I'm making: FPTP voting leads to huge tactical voting, you absolutely can't make arguments (either direction) about how people would vote in a border poll based on minor changes in vote share percentage in a FPTP election.

For example, in the 2017-2024 elections you're comparing, another substantial chunk of the drop in Nationalist vote is easily accounted for by SF voters not showing up in safe seats; I'm pretty sure West Belfast hasn't magically got less Republican, but the voter turnout there dropped from over 65% to under 53% between 2017 and 2024. It is such a safe seat that the Republican vote doesn't need to bother showing up. Given the Unionist in-fighting I'm not sure I could find a comparable example from the Unionist side, but the point stands.....context free raw numbers from a FPTP election are an absolutely sh*tty way to judge anything beyond who is elected in that election.

I know, I know.....you desperately need to clutch onto anything that let's you feel like you're winning an argument against Unification, but it is idiotic.

Significant increase in votes cast, particularly in constituencies that previously returned unionist candidates but would AP not have been a little disappointed to not win more than one seat in the most recent WM election where they had been in contention for 3?

I agree that is a problem in comparing percentages. Would probably need to look at elections in NI that don't use FPTP to give a better reflection on seats per party.

But I think AP would be disappointed not to at least gain one additional WM seat where there was the potential for three.

On a good day for AP, they could have won LV, EB, North Down and on a really good day, maybe even East Antrim, five years time who knows how it could go. Elsewhere SF challenging for Gregory Campbells seat in this election, in future elections what party will be successful in this constituency?

These are five seats that can no longer be regarded as safe unionist seats and not sure how unionism can turn this around. Very difficult at this point to see how unionist parties will ever be a majority in WM again.

"I just hope themmuns get nothing, even if it spites myself"

Sorcha is arrogant? Pray tell?

Whatever SF get paid, they only claim expenses from Westminster, they don't take parliamentary salaries.

Sure getting rid of Paisley's expenses is probably enough to cover half of NI MPs on its own!

As for an actual answer.....well paid is relative. I wouldn't think it was worth it for me even with the full parliamentary salary plus Paisley-esque expenses and holiday funds on top, though I think SF looked like ballbags keeping the, 'we only take the average industrial wage' nonsense on the go.

Could it be that she's left a job in which she feels she has done what she was going to do, to move to a new role that she feels she has something to contribute to? It could be — just possibly that she's not as motivated by the money as you evidently think people are.

SF MPs don't take the basic annual salary as they abstain from Westminster, so the number isn't particularly helpful when it comes to knowing what their MPs are actually paid.

They obviously don't have the travel to Westminster expenses, but have been quite clear that they do take their constituency expenses. Their salaries (whatever they are) are paid by the party, and a quirk of the Code of Conduct for MPs means they're not required to declare how much this is.

There have been exceptions to Sinn Fein policy on remuneration over the years.

Emma De Souza assessing the implications/fallout of the General Election.

With Jim Allister taking his place in Reform today despite Farage backing his rival, it remains to be seen how the three strands of Unionism navigate their depleted and confused status.

De Souza is hardly a neutral commentator, one who is still stuck in the old binary notions of nationhood.

Nobody is surprised that traditional unionism is dying, nor that nationalism is stagnating. The rise of Northern Irish as an identity explains that.

Alliance lost 1.8% of their vote = 17,000 votes.