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The decline of SF?

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Comments

  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    I wouldnt totally despair if I were a SF supporter or member. Elections can throw up surprises. We still have a housing crisis. We still have a health crisis.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    I'd consider giving SF a number 1 or 2. I just wouldn't like them to lead a government. Because they are a bit too populist for my tastes. A bit too fond of class warfare. Ideally I'd like to see them in coalition with FG or FF.

    However this seems unlikely now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The rest of the western world has a housing crises. Many young people ( people in their twenties / early thirties say) struggle to buy a home in Sydney, London, San Francisco too, despite high salaries there. Everyone wants lovely pads in great locations, but there are not enough to go around. High immigration in to this country in the past five / ten years has not helped, it is supply and demand. However you can still buy an apartment in some parts of the country for double the average public sector wage or less. The problem is these are often bought by retiring public sector workers with their one and a half year wages tax free lump sum when they retire, so young people are not always able to buy them. Ask any auctioneer.

    The health crises is caused by our inefficiency to govern ourselves, not by lack of money we ( the taxpayer ) give to the HSE, VHI, doctors etc. Giving control to a organisation who main past expertise was robbing banks / planting bombs would not guarantee an improvement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,263 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Overseen by successive line ministers and the government generally, for yonks.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    western housing problems are not a case of the lack of supply but more so the overall financialisation of the whole process, in which includes a widescale privatisation of property, and the whole process of property, which has opened the door widely for speculation of these markets, whos overall objective is to keep inflating the price of property, which under such, housing is now considered an 'asset'!

    ….prices are inflated by the influx of new credit into markets, the more new credit enters the market, the more prices inflate, most new money is now created by major private sector financial institutions, we call these 'banks', whereby banks play a critical role in this overall process of financialisation, along side its other partners, insurance and real estate, i.e. 'fire' (finance, insurance and real estate)

    obviously those capable of borrowing, which includes employees of both the public and private sectors, we now have other major players from the private sector maintaining this process, such as major investment and pension funds etc…..

    our health care sector issues are wide and complex, the fact that we ve significantly under funded our health system for decades, were effectively forced to implement austerity measures when the private sector banking system went caput, and the fact our health care needs have dramatically changed and become far more complex, therefore more costly to provide, resulting in an absolute sh1t show……



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Privatisation of property is nothing new, it has been there ever since a family or tribe took over a cave.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ..yes this is true, but over the last few decades, there has been a large widescale privatisation of property, hence why many western nations, including ireland, have significantly reduced public housing stock, and states have largely withdrawn from the production and creation of public housing, preferably outsourcing this process to the private sector(part 5).

    …this is ultimately why we are where we are, whereby speculation of property and land trumps the actual creation, or attempt to create housing

    …this means the needs of these major private sector entities, i.e. the fire sectors, trumps societies actual needs, hence why bailouts and other public polices including qe have been enacted, and maintained…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,118 ✭✭✭pureza


    In the Dáil today Pearse was giving out about 2 more excise increases on petrol and diesel this summer and that they should be stopped

    Micheál Martin immediately replied that Sf's alternative budget had the whole lot up in one 8% increase in April

    Saying one thing one month and a different the next,you wouldn't have a clue what you'd be voting for would you

    Isn't this another example of the kind of all over the place pirrouetting of policies that has SF support falling amongst other things?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …wouldnt be worrying about it, there wont be a sf government, and may never be….



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,118 ✭✭✭pureza


    I'd disagree there.

    The Martin Ferris review of the EU and Co Co results is done.

    There will be another change in tack/pirrouette call it what you will,so you will see a rise and rise by Sinn Féin in the run up to the election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Pearse, poor old Pearse. This is the man who said one month the rich earn 140k and the next 100k.

    The alternative budget, which version on they on now after they fixed all the mistakes?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …sorry but this more than likely isnt gonna happen, sf are clearly in free fall, this more than likely will not reverse leading into the ge, there will very likely, and imho, be another ffg government, and the fact theyll do everything they can to try always block any alternatives, its very likely we ll just remain pretty much as is, possible indefinitely…..

    …i.e. the best way for ireland to change, is to stay the same……

    …always leads to radical changes of course!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,118 ✭✭✭pureza


    Well that'll be up to the voters

    No party is restricted on the ballot paper

    So I'd disagree there too,Ireland isn't Belarus,our voting is free open and fair,please do report anything factual to the contrary?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and again, this isnt how the pr-stv system works, government formations are partly to do with voting outcomes, i.e. voter choices, but also partly due to agreements made post election day, i.e. government formations are not entirely due to the involvement of a single entity, either voter choices or elected officials agreements. therefore, the most likely outcome of the next ge will be another ffg lead government, due to the fact theres currently a rapid decline in support for sf, causing a default towards another ffg government. in order for a sf government to be formed, there would need to be a significant high number of votes for sf, significantly higher that both ffg votes, again, this is currently highly unlikely, but i guess we dont have long to confirm this now……

    …yes irelands voting system is far more fairer compared to a country such as belarus, but again, voting outcomes only play a part in government formations, this means a single party may in fact obtain the largest amount of overall votes, but still not be able to form a government, this again will more than likely be the case for sf, causing the default to ffg….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,728 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    My son is renting an apartment for 400 a month 40 min from Barcelona and 10 minutes from his job. You wouldn't rent a dog kennel within an arses roar of Dublin in Ireland for that. He was renting in cologne before that for 450 a month in the center of the city. We are not London, new York or San Francisco and it's only a matter of time before the arse falls out of this government funded house of cards. As you say the health crisis is caused by our inefficiency to govern ourselves - remind me who is in power and has failed to govern the health care sector ? The shinners couldn't be worse than the crowd running health and housing at the moment. Both are a **** disaster



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    If you google it up, you will find in Spain the average annual wage stood at approximately 29,113 euros in 2022.

    The Prime Minister of Spain earns only €86,542 per year. Here a lot of Gardai , lecturers in third level colleges etc earn that each year and get more than that as a tax free "gratuity" when they retire. That, and wages in general and cost of building etc here, pushes the price of property higher here.

    So 2 different economies. If people here only earned 29k on average, rent would only be 400 per month too.

    Maybe in countries like Libya, Venezuala and North Korea, the cost of renting is cheaper too. Republicans have visited those countries in the past, maybe we could learn from those countries you think?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and again, you ll find its actually the access to credit that has ultimately caused the rapid rise in property prices, and yes, those that earn more, in both the public and private sectors naturally have had that access, noting theres plenty of people in the private sector earning healthy 5 and 6 figure sums, therefore can borrow larger amounts of money, this approach of just blaming the public sector is just childish now!

    …and again, after the 08 crash, we encouraged much large investment and pension funds to invest in our property markets, and they to got access to cheap credit via methods such as qe, as interest rates were kept at record low levels for some time after the crash, this was all to simply re-inflate asset markets post crash, and it worked…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,118 ✭✭✭pureza


    Are you arguing against free will there?

    Because last time I voted,there was noone standing over me saying if I voted for one government party I had to vote for the other

    If I did that it was my choice

    Noone elses



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …again, you seem to think we have a fptp system here, we dont, under pr-stv, it is possible for a party to receive a larger proportion of votes, but still be unable to form a government, this is more than likely what will happen here again, i.e. its very likely sf will get more votes than either ff or fg, or even ffg combined, but will be unable to form a government, resulting in a default back towards another ffg lead government, this is currently the most likely outcome after the coming ge…..

    …yes voters have the freedom to vote who they like, citizens even have the right to not vote at all, but again, voters alone do not decide government formations, as is the case here in ireland under pr-stv…..



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,506 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    If we had a FPTP system, it's unlikely SF would exist at all, it only suits a 2 party system.

    Using it as an argument that SF should do better in an election based on number of votes is nonsensical.

    SF have to make themselves more transfer friendly, which they were doing as they were morphing into FF but it's blown up in their face as is slowly dawned on their supporters what was happening (particularly galling for the lefty group being taken advantage of).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,728 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    The Barcelona economy would be quiet close to ours, average salary is about 38,000. Why did you exclude cologne in Germany from the discussion which I mentioned also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,118 ✭✭✭pureza


    In theory SF being the chief opposition party if they polled the 36% or higher of last year at an election,they'd trump the other choices and would have to be involved

    Their not being able to do that would be solely down to voter choice

    Your analysis otherwise is nonsense

    There is still plenty of time for SF to grow their vote,its not going to shrink further.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Who sys it cannot shrink further? Historically - in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s etc SF had no more than 2 or 3% vote here in most of the 26 counties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That would require Sinn Fein to develop some sensible policies that would simultaneously attract support from the lunatic fringes and survive detailed analysis by the sane.

    The lunatic fringe is fragmenting - see the rise in support for independents - while the sane middle is coalescing around the traditional parties.

    Very little room left for Sinn Fein, other than bawling for "change".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The only "change" they sought for and got in Fermanagh South Tyrone was an absentee MP who now doesn’t even live anywhere near the constituency.

    https://www.impartialreporter.com/news/24445352.former-first-minister-launched-scathing-attack-pat-cullen/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,263 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A nearly 5000 majority for the candidate, says the electorate of FST don’t share your view.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The Tories tend to do that, parachute candidates who have nothing to do with the constituency in to win seats.

    When you think of how much criticism from Sinn Fein supporters there has been on these pages of celebrity candidates of other parties, you would think they would put the head down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,349 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    the prices being paid are affordable because of the number of high wage jobs in Dublin. If they werent affordable, landlords would drop the rent.

    places rent out very very quickly at current prices.

    SF absolutley could do worse. its the lamest of all arguments to say things couldnt get worse. They can always get worse.

    SF would lilkley reduce the number of new homes being built by squeezing out investment funds and not replacing the housing supply they disconnect, which will have an upward pressure on rent prices.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,728 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    The governments disaster of a policy on housing is built on driving rent prices up through subsidising investment funds with inflated rents. Any idiot can see this will end one way. If you think that is a sustainable policy well good luck with that one, the first economic crash and we are fucked. County councils etc signed up to long term leasing of properties at massively inflated prices after the building was funded through pension etc. will only end one way the same as the bank crassh



This discussion has been closed.
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