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USA 2024 presidential election

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    #692
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,726 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122367057#Comment_122367057

    I won't pretend to know, honestly. I'm not even advocating that Biden step down. I'm just a little horrified by his performance in that debate, not so much for what it showed but for the ammunition it gives MAGA. I'd be happy with another Biden presidency but he needs the votes to get there. Gawping at the camera or getting his face stuck is not going to help.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #693
    The Davestator
    Registered Users Posts: 3,438 ✭✭✭The Davestator


    The debate seems to have changed a little and people are not only talking about Biden now, but what would he look like at the end of his second term?

    He's not a viable candidate.



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    #694
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,493 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122367322#Comment_122367322

    Harris is someone who I have been very skeptical over the last few years, but at least picking her you take away all the chatter about age and you even flip it back on Trump who is also disintegrating in front of us. She also doesn't need to be managed as carefully as Biden and can be out in public much more regularly than Biden on the offensive.

    …

    Again, her, Whitmer, Newsom all have their flaws and all probably start as underdogs v Trump, but their is way to many things alarming about Biden not to at least look elsewhere.

    Harris has to be the only viable choice here though, right? The other two you mention don't necessarily have that baked-in national platform that even with the Anyone But Trump cohort, you'll need to catch-up the population on who either of them are. And I daresay both become unknown the further you travel from their home state. And that's leaving aside the other tricky part of whether the alternative candidate would even want to step in as a ringer. Yet looping back to Harris she seemed quite unpopular as a presidential candidate during her brief stint and I really don't get the sense many along the centre-to-left like her at all. And again: would she want the job?

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122367476#Comment_122367476

    But therein lies the calculation: is limping on with a candidate we've known was less tha perfect since 2020 a better strategy than scrapping that candidate - and current, sitting president - in favour of some potentially unknown ringer? I know it would never happen in a million years but you do suspect much of America would bite their hands off for Obama to come back.

    And we can see that the DNC are not as aggressive when it comes to its own approach to things as the GOP. And to an extent, I don't blame them. There's literally nobody behind Biden or all the Old Guard you could point at and go that's the future of liberal politics.Maybe the likes of AOC but you're talking about 10 years at least - and even then she remains a deeply divisive figure

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122367795#Comment_122367795

    The tarriffs stuff is ludicrous and would make Liz Truss' budget appear like a sound and sober fiscal decision.

    John Oliver did a really good deep dive into the potential and much more insidious decision to make a slew of government departments more politicised. All the items about the Unitary Executive Theory put into practise is the macro side of the dictatorship, but scrubbing the apolitical approach to government services and departments would be the micro.



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    #695
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,726 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122368046#Comment_122368046

    I can only watch bits of John Oliver's thing because I live in the UK.

    We saw tariffs in the first Trump term and the EU responded in kind with targeted ones on things like motorcycles. I just don't see how anyone behind the scenes is seriously considering this. The fascism and the crusade against dignity and human rights have been conservative hallmarks for a long time now so that matches expectations.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #696
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,505 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Harris is not a viable candidate for the Dems

    She is not liked by female voters



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    #697
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,483 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122368091#Comment_122368091

    Or Racists and Misogynists sadly.



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    #698
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Harris is not liked by many voters. Fairly universally unlikeable



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    #699
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,505 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Both comments above true, but unfortunately over half of voters are female

    Whereas it's debatable how many are racist or misogynistic, especially in swing states



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    #700
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,726 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Harris can take partial credit for Biden's achievements while avoiding the issue of age. She's the logical choice for his replacement.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #701
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,493 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Given I mentioned it in the first place, I was curous to know if there was any polling done on Harris' popularity. Turns out there has been: and rather interesting, she's just as popular (approved of) as Joe Biden, but perhaps more crucially fewer people disapprove of her than Biden. That's probably cos as VP she hasn't done anything to command any negative reaction - but perhaps it counters the idea that she's completely, widely hated.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/



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    #702
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,726 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Does it matter? Either they run Biden and all that that entails or Harris. MAGA will do MAGA things and the people who don't want Trump will have no choice but to vote Harris.

    The two-party system really is an abomination.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #703
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,493 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122368397#Comment_122368397

    Well it matters insofar as whether scrapping the sitting president as candidate and going back on the rubber stamp Primary, would be the smarter play than a ringer and if it would appeal to all the independent voters.

    It's a calculation that if they get wrong, would look to spell the end of American Democracy if even half Project 2025 gets implemented. I don't want to be the ones making that decision.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


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    #704
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    But therein lies the calculation: is limping on with a candidate we've known was less tha perfect since 2020 a better strategy than scrapping that candidate - and current, sitting president - in favour of some potentially unknown ringer?

    Yes!

    That debate performance was a nuclear bomb on Biden's chances. Yeah sure we all knew he wasn't perfect in 2020 but this is not the Biden of 2020. Hell it isn't even the Biden of 2023 when he visited Ireland.

    All of those in-built incumbency advantages mean nothing now after what happened 2 weeks ago.

    I know it would never happen in a million years but you do suspect much of America would bite their hands off for Obama to come back.

    Damn right they would. That's why Michelle Obama polls better than anyone else versus Trump in head to head polling. She's basically a proxy for Barack Obama in people's minds. He's ineligible though and she has always and consistently shown no personal interest in going into politics.



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    #705
    doyle55
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭doyle55


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122368343#Comment_122368343

    All that matters is how she polls against Trump.



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    #706
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,569 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122367800#Comment_122367800

    Why do you care? Ffs, it's really not relevant to you.



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    #707
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122368746#Comment_122368746

    The President of the USA is the most powerfully elected position in the world. It has knock on affects in lots of areas that are relevant to people outside of the USA. Some of the most obvious ones:

    1. The Russian invasion of Ukraine (and the knock-on affects for people all over the EU of that). There's currently 100k Ukrainian refugees in Ireland alone. If Trump wins and cuts off support to Ukraine we're likely to see many more waves of refugees from areas "liberated" by Russian forces.
    2. Relations with China and potential tariff wars which would affect the global economy
    3. The prominence of legislative attempts to fight Climate Change which affects everyone on the planet whether they like it or not.

    That's all besides the point though. You don't have to have skin the game to take an interest in something. Millions of people from all over the world follow the English premier league who have never set foot in the UK.

    Other people, such as the people who choose to contribute to a forum dedicated to politics, take an interest in current affairs from all over the world.

    I have no interest in Marvel movies, Country & Western music or Horse Racing. I don't go around asking why other people do care about those things though. Different people like different things.



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    #708
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users Posts: 8,553 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    Interestingly supposedly Harris is starting to gain traction amongst younger voters as a number of her interviews and speeches that were called gaffs at the time have become viral clips getting tons of play across social media platforms (according to a piece I read on the Washington Post)

    I know that the youth vote is not usually enormous in terms of turn out. But someone with soke media savvy backing and an in, in terms of attracting voters in relation to reproductive rights etc... might be able to generate some enthusiasm.



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    #709
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,594 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    I think it's becoming increasingly clear that the debate has dealt a hammer blow to Biden's hopes.

    I have my doubts about Harris as a replacement. Sadly, I think the fact she is a woman will be used by Trump backers as a negative against her. They'll say a woman can't be expected to stand up to Putin and others, and I suspect that argument will gain traction in certain quarters. Tragic since Trump will likely roll over and have his tummy ticked by Putin just like last time.

    Could they put someone else forward? Not sure. But at this point, asking Biden to step aside looks the best chance to win.



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    #710
    mickdw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,357 ✭✭✭✭mickdw


    Biden is not going to run. Its only a matter of how he is taken out of the race now. The man cannot even read off a page now without losing focus.



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    #711
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Oh Joe…

    image.png



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    #712
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122369775#Comment_122369775

    Ah jaysys, just get him out of there. For his own sake at this stage.



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    #713
    Sandor Clegane
    Registered Users Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭Sandor Clegane


    Its sad, it really is, but what's even sadder is the fact Trump will get a second term because Biden and his backers are too arrogant to accept its over.



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    #714
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users Posts: 28,192 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122369973#Comment_122369973

    The Dems can't find anyone that has a hope of beating Trump, it's not Biden's fault. I'm looking forward to Trump coming back, the world needs a bit of stability again, it's been a **** show under Biden.



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    #715
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,594 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Nothing like a convicted felon who has promised to be a dictator on day one to bring a bit of global stability.



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    #716
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    image.png

    And again. Christ.



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    #717
    selectamatic
    Registered Users Posts: 3,942 ✭✭✭selectamatic


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122370032#Comment_122370032

    Stability is gone and it's not coming back anytime soon. It's nothing to do with the POTUS either unfortunately. The fight for access to and control over natural resources is here to stay and will only get worse.

    The world was pretty stable all told during the 2010's but no one person brought about this stability. Trump dropping a moab on some Isis lads in the mountains is entry level stuff.

    Keeping China, Russia and the Sahel region of Africa in check from now on is a completely different kettle of fish.



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    #718
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Mix ups notwithstanding, that was a very strong Q&A session. He engaged in detail with multiple complex topics, generally stated on point, and was able to come back and address follow up questions. That was him at his best I think, for good and ill.



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    #719
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users Posts: 8,553 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    It's quite interesting to think about.

    He spoke for over an hour including a long Q&A. He mixed up 2 names, which he corrected quickly, which is still not great given the context, but should hardly be a nail in the coffin.

    Unfortunately for him, the debate happened, and was bad, so every slip gets magnified.

    I do actually think that the American media want a Trump win, from a purely self-serving perspective. I'd imagine on both sides that Fox, CNN, MSNBC ratings have been on the slide since the switch from Trump to Biden. Quiet competent presidencies don't get people watching the news in the same way that unhinged nutjobs do. The almighty dollar ultimately talks in the media world.

    They jump on every Biden gaffe, but you only really seem to see social media presences showing some of the madness and dodgy stuff coming out on the Trump side.



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    #720
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122370177#Comment_122370177

    If your best is barely competent you should not be competing in a race where the consequences of you losing are the collapse of western democracy.

    Its as if the fate of a battle depends on getting a message by foot to the front line, and the fattest slowest person in the company insists on carrying it himself instead of handing it off to someone who has a better chance of getting there on time



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    #721
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122370242#Comment_122370242

    Two pretty huge mix ups tbh



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