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General Irish politics discussion thread

18889919394135

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,234 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Yea, France is a bit of a mad system.

    Round 2 is for those with buyers remorse and I guess it makes people think harder on their choices.

    In Round 1, unless someone gets 50% of the vote, they go to Round 2.

    It's like FPTP but with some guardrails and a higher threshold to be elected.

    Again though it favours more centrist parties in the long run. Extreme parties who do well in round 1 can be ganged up on, and outvoted in round 2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,234 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Will be interesting who they put up for the nomination.

    Will it be Buttimer again, or will Shane O'Callgahan get a chance? He is much younger than Buttimer who isn't all that popular.

    Will also be the first time in 43 years a Coveny was not up for election in that constituency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,196 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I think it's somewhere in between FPTP and STV.

    In round 2, if it's apparent that your favoured candidate has no hope of being elected (or if your favoured candidate has withdrawn) you can think about who you would like instead, and vote for them — effectively you get to express a second preference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,234 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    I am not re-debating Brexit, it's been done to death.

    But the idea was put forward that Brexit was the result of FPTP, which ignored the actual large groundswell of opinion that was in favour of it, and in a PR system, that support would have coalesced to a party more aligned to its values and would have had a large number of seats in Westminister.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,234 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Yea, that is a good way of looking at it.
    While its technically an FPTP system, the 2 rounds offer a 2nd preference for those who want to change their mind or see their candidate dumped out of it in the 1st round.

    Channel 4 did a piece on PR vs FPTP recently.

    As always its a trade off.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Will John Mullins be the replacement for Simon Coveney?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I much prefer PR-STV obviously but for the likes of the UK, it wouldn't be the worst first step for Westminster elections to adopt the two-round system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,344 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It creates a great opportunity for Harris to reinvent his party with a new image, new leader, new candidates.

    It is a pity that O'Gorman is not doing the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,234 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    I thought he was going to run in Cork East, but I may be mistaken.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭gym_imposter


    Any politician opposed to teaching kids about " transgenderism" , can't be all bad



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,391 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    We're now at the "but he got the trains to run on time" stage 🙄

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Buttimer will almost certainly be going for it. He got unlucky in the past when his home patch in Bishopstown got split between CNC and CSC. After the recent boundary review it's all back in CSC again. There's an extra seat in the constituency as well so they very well could run two candidates and since O'Callaghan is from a different part of the constituency it could very well be him as the running mate. Des Cahill might throw his hat in the ring as well though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,779 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Surely they want to win the seat? He was a very poor MEP candidate, can't see how he'd fare better in a dail election...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Dear Christ.

    Why are you right-wingers so obsessed with other people's genitalia?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,546 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Indeed - Might be a first step in the right direction for them,

    Go to ranked choice ,where it's still single seat but you give your ranked choice and then if no one gets to 50.1% you exclude all but the top two and allocate the secondary choices of the excluded votes.

    They use that in the US in a few States - Maine and Alaska for sure and perhaps a few others.

    It's what gave the Alaska House seat to the Democrats over Palin a while back.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    It's also a pretty instructive use of language too, isn't it? I guess it's easier to disassociate the concept of helping the well-being and safety of humans, looking for paths to their own happiness, if you can use a term that makes it sound like a movement or a cult. It's patently and intentionally dehumanising language.

    Anyway, off topic I know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I'm confused. What's the RCV suggestion in response to?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,779 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Single seats is rubbish, regardless of how you pick the winner.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,546 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Don't disagree in the slightest , but as an intermediate step on the journey from FPTP to fully functional PR it might be useful.

    A move to full PR would require blowing up all of their constituencies and changing how they vote all at the same time which a lot of UK voters might see as too great a change in a single step.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,779 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    The Scottish and the Welsh already use the additional member system for their devolved governments. They use the GOAT that is PR-STV in the north. They used use the alternative vote for mayoral elections until the tories did away with that.

    The British can handle a new system. The big thing would be to ensure it's independently devised and controlled, avoiding the perception of gerrymandering or collusion.

    It'll never happen though.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 94,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In FPTP about one third of the seats are safe, a donkey with the right colour rosette would win. (Here multiple seats means local voters can override parachute candidates.)

    In most others it's a two horse race, there is literally no point in voting for a third candidate.

    In seats with three or more contenders the transferable vote means you don't have to second guess who others will likely vote for.

    *I say that as a Green supporter

    The UK Green party got 4 seats from 1,841,888 votes in 2024 in Westminster.

    In 2015 the DUP got 184,260 votes and 8 seats. Twice as many seats on a tenth of the vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Say the next government is made up of Independant Ireland and FF/FG. Would everyone all of a sudden be happy that the populist right is in government, where they make policy and legislation to row back on this like clean air and water, public transport, abortion, divorce, drunk driving

    Divorce is enshrined in the constitution anyway so that's just silly to mention. No government is going to touch abortion for a generation either.

    If Independent Ireland get into power with FF & FG then their potential to bring in unpopular nonsense will be severely curtailed. Realistically it would likely just mean that foot-dragging on climate issues gets increased and anything seen as being too "woke" wouldn't see the light of day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 741 ✭✭✭moon2


    Would everyone all of a sudden be happy that the populist right is in government, where they make policy and legislation to row back on this like clean air and water, public transport, abortion, divorce, drunk driving

    To be honest, I'd be happy if Independent Ireland were in government with FF, FG or both, and then they proposed these things for a vote. The new policies would fairly obviously not pass, and the optics of attempting to row back such popular legislation would likely tank their vote amongst the swing voters. They'd be a 1 shot coalition party.

    This is one of the stronger points about our voting system - a minor party has minor power and can't do these kinds of things with the support of the majority party, who has the majority of the power by virtue of obtaining the majority of the popular vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,575 ✭✭✭Augme


    Rowing back on abortion and divorce would require a party being in charge of department of Health and Justice. A minor party like Independent Ireland would never been given those. They end up with transports and could easily see investment in public transport and progress public transport policies being decimated then. As we have seen with FG involvement with trying to dismantle the Dublin City transport plan, they'd be in favour of that as well so there's be.liyyle objection to a car first policy in a FFG-II coalition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    II don't offer answers to anything. I call them the Ballygobackwards Party. A crystalisses of what they are, a new Soc Dem Cllr is seeking to remove prayers from the start of each Cork County Council meeting, II come out opposing it before there's any discussion. A variant on Ulster says NO.

    I'm not vehemently against prayers, but I would have a rational discussion on it. Do we really follow through on the separation of religion and state?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,391 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Rowing back on abortion rights is electoral death and everyone knows it. Renua turned into crank central for a reason.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,391 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    @Water John we talk a good game about being a secular republic but in reality there is no separation of church and state in Ireland, almost 95% of our primary schools are religious controlled despite being fully state funded, and they indoctrinate kids with the state’s blessing.

    Michael “Opus Dei” Woods decided the taxpayer would pick up the vast majority of the RCC’s abuse compensation and that was that. €1bn+ and counting.

    Post edited by Hotblack Desiato on

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 41,896 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Why would you need a praying session before a political meeting?

    Would it just be Catholic or Christian prayers or, for example, would there also be prayers from the Quran?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,391 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I’m thinking of setting up a religion with prayers of minimum length one hour, then forcing the councils to recognise it because it’s sectarianism if they don’t 😎

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,779 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I think that was one of the issues raised. It should either be fully ecumenical or not be there at all, but currently it's just Christian.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Seems a bit out of place in this day and age.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,344 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I have to disagree there. The biggest obstacle to public transport is Sinn Fein wavering on the subject, the latest being the stupid ridiculous idea to revive the Clongriffin rail link.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,575 ✭✭✭Augme


    Of course you'd disagree. Despite being in government, despite FG controlling Dublin city Council, despite a FG Minister very vocal pleas to stop the Dublin City transpor plan tpostponed, it is still somehow SFs fault. 😂😂😂



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That's some degree of myopia to look at the transport infrastructure in this country and conclude it's Sinn Fein's fault. You do realise how ludicrous the statement is, assuming you're not trolling?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Can we have examples please, of how SF are "the biggest obstacle to public transport"?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,148 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Enjoyed the RTE doc The Locals I have to say Malachy Steenson came across as a right miserable looper usual buzzwords, Brian Garrigan a complete lunatic, but decent people like Daniel Ennis getting in gives you some hope for the future!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,268 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think O'Gorman should come out and inform the nation of exactly the process for IP applicants. eg - they are identity checked, fingerprinted, photographed, checked with EU database, etc. etc.

    That way, the disinformation merchants will know the truth before their lies start.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,096 ✭✭✭corkie


    With only 20 incumbent TD's as mentioned earlier in thread, FG need new blood for the GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,344 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Harris is looking to promote a fresh new brand image for FG. It works both ways, if he gets back into government, he can claim new ideas and new blood, if he ends up in opposition, he won't be stuck with old TDs who have no chance in 5/6 years time of getting elected.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    The recent locals have made it a bit easier for him, as there's a pool of councillors to draw from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yeah I wouldn't be too worried for FG. They have a rake of councillors with experience at winning elections will likely be crawling over one another to get a shot at all these Dail vacancies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,467 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    I think they should go the whole hog and have Astrology sessions before each meeting. Astrology and the effects the planets etc have on us certainly make a lot more sense than the various forms, thousands, of religious nonsense that is out there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,467 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Steenson is a complete chancer whose being doing the rounds for years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,850 ✭✭✭eire4


    All TFPTP system needs is for one of the main parties to get pushed to the extreme right or left just as has happened to the now authoritarian Republican party in the US which has lurched to the far right. Thus the system itself which rarely requires coalitions leaves the door very open even more so as with TFPTP system governments can get into power despite only winning a minority of the votes cast.

    It is not debatable that compared with FPTP PR is much more democratic. It produces results much more reflective of the voters as a whole and it leads to very often coalition governments which represent the whishes of a majority and which require much negotiation and consensus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,995 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    To be fair STV isn't perfect either, we get many candidates getting seats without reaching the quota. Take for example in 2016 where 49.8% of the vote gave FF and FG 94 seats (or 59% of the 158 available)

    I don't think there is a "perfect" system though to be fair, just degrees of perfection. Of which STV has a much higher degree of it than FPTP. With that being said FPTP makes for stronger governments so you have to weigh positives with negatives the whole time



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 28,740 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    49.8% of the first preference vote. Which, while not quite a meaningless figure, is not relevant to the seat count. That it doesn't align directly with the seat count is a feature, not a bug.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,995 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    It would suggest that people gave a first preference to one party (or indo) and a second preference to another suggesting party loyalty is not very high so that would be the main bug.

    The system itself is a good one aside from the numbers that can get in without a quota, min 1 per constituency you could essentially have a political party on the fringe in theory gain 43 seats without a quota



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 28,740 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It would suggest that people gave a first preference to one party (or indo) and a second preference to another suggesting party loyalty is not very high so that would be the main bug.

    What? Who cares about "party loyalty". At some point (often after choice 1) you have to go to another party. It's a consensus based system to find compromise candidates.

    The system itself is a good one aside from the numbers that can get in without a quota, min 1 per constituency you could essentially have a political party on the fringe in theory gain 43 seats without a quota

    You don't have min 1 per constituency getting in without a quota and who cares? It means they are the next most agreeable candidate. The quota is a purely mathematical function of how the counting is done. Not reaching it is meaningless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,391 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Get rid of 3 seat constituencies and most of this "problem" goes away. But as Podge says, first prefs are certainly not the be all and end all in PR-STV. Your tenth pref might be the one that pushes someone over the line.

    It's also very possible to protest vote (or even pity vote) with your no.1 and then move on to candidates who are actually electable.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



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