?????? v Trump (and one or two others) The US Presidential election 2024. Read OP before posting

Based on his post yesterday, his rhetoric isn't changing.

Any traditional Republicans who are voting for Trump are helping to enable him and their distaste for him is obviously not as great as their distaste for the other guy getting in. The fact is that the Republican party has been completely remoulded in Trump's image within the last 10 years. Trump's control of the party is so great that his daughter-in-law now sits as co-chair of their national committee. The bloc of voters who would comprise the traditional base have been unable to reverse this shift, meaning they're either voting for him, which makes them part of the problem (if one sees the rise of Trump as a problem) or not doing enough against him. If their number is so great and they don't care for the man, they have to actually show up in some way to that end.

I see you added to the post above- for me Trump and Vance, in other words the opposition, are not the reasons why the ethnic vote comes out in force - they come out because they believe in their own candidate (Obama for instance) - not because the other guy is terrible - the opposition are always going to be “terrible” to the ethnic minorities - but that doesn’t always get them to the polling stations on the day

The fact is that the Republican party has been completely remoulded in Trump's image within the last 10 years. 

Doesn't matter, the fact is the Republican support and base has shrank and has continued to do so.

This was normally propped up with moderate independents, they can't stand Trump, not much fans of Biden either TBF.

they come out because they believe in their own candidate (Obama for instance) - not because the other guy is terrible

That isn't true, a sizeable amount of people voted in 2020 not because they liked Biden it's because they hated Trump. Biden beat Obamas voting record as a spritely 77 year old.

Hold your nose and vote was the mantra particularly amongst younger votes.

It is no different this time, there is 2 deeply unpopular candidates on the ballot, it could well come down to the lesser of 2 evils, which by any metric given Trumps damaging legacy and what he has said he will do going forward is Biden.

I don’t “disagree” in that any rise in “popularity” will ultimately be temporary- whether it lasts till election day let’s see but Trump is definitely going to be changing his narrative at rally’s etc to try and hang on to any gains he might make - I think we’re going to see a different Trump persona put forward for the rest of this campaign- yes it will still be the same Trump behind it all but that’s not what the voters who want to believe in their Republican candidate will see

Remember in the USA 45% will vote Republican even if Mickey Mouse was the candidate and 45% will vote Democrat if Bugs Bunny was the candidate. So in reality its the 10% of the electorate that matters and even then, its just in particular states. So polls will always look very close, but the devil is in the details and its just 7 states that really matter - Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Those states represent 6% of the electorate!

You will see very few Trump adverts in California and very few Biden adverts in Texas as neither have a hope in hell of winning them, but if you live in one of the 7 swing states, you will be sick of political advertising at this point.

He is the ultimate narcist, the idea that he capable of changing his rhetoric is naïve.

He is hated by the majority over there who see him as a dangerous individual who will do anything to win back the office not to better America but to save his own skin, whilst doing so eroding the "freedoms" Americans have become accustomed to.

He has stacked the court with hardliners who have open the door so The President has ultimate immunity. That is beyond dangerous going forward. Not to mention the complete erosion of 50 years of female reproductive health.

Apart from the MAGA loons, no one cares or has any sympathy for someone taking a pot shot at him.

You reap what you sow.

Indeed. And as another poster pointed out, that 10% is not the most politically literate.

Many will vote for their wallet and to them prices "went up" under Biden. Others will vote with their gut or on a whim.

2020 had a movement, a desire to oust Trump, energized younger voters, a new candidate, Biden was on form.

2024 has little or none of that. There's no spark, only a muddled Dem situation. Conversely Trump is going from strength to strength

We see all the same reassurances and comforting talking points being brought out but the reality and polls and bookie odds (that have only been wrong twice in 150 years) paint a different picture entirely.

Conversely Trump is going from strength to strength

He really isn't. If the polls are anything to go by.

Also his VP pick is a disaster.

There was a Republican strategist interviewed on Sky News who echoed the sentiment. She could not get her head around the pick.

Biden has had an absolute mare of a few weeks, and yet they are still in between the margin of error.

Long way to go yet.

Comparble to Trump?

Also his VP pick is a disaster.

Locking up the Rust Belt, the key to the election is far from a disaster. Vance has a great backstory and will resonate with many middle Americans.

I would have preferred Niki Hayley myself, from a Foreign Policy pov.

What makes you think he will lock up the Rust Belt? Pence was from the Rust Belt. Biden spent the early part of his life there.

He is from Ohio, a state Trump carried by 8 points in 2020.

If Trump wanted to broaden his appeal by appointing a VP that could achieve that he has completely failed.

By every single metric it is a daft pick.

It also gives the Democrats a massive target to aim at.

First question why are you the running mate of someone you once called Americas Hitler?

Again, both candidates are unpopular.

Yes we could see people not turning out or general apathy.

But Biden can afford far more not to turn out then Trump. Given the narrative in MAGA circles is Trump will win by a landslide this could lead to even more people not to turn out of him, thinking they have it won anyway.

Then it’s back to what element of the Biden camp traditionally need to be pushed into the polling booth and practically driven there- it’s the ethnic minority vote- they won’t turn out in their droves so that essentially negates that - would a non-Trump supporting Republican prefer Trump in the white house over Biden? Absolutely they would - they’ll be out on the day - I believe a lot of Democrat supporters will feel deflated and will just give up.

Let’s see who’s right come November and you can remind me of my position if I’m wrong 🤪