A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Bank of Ireland revises down its forecast for GDP growth this year to 1%, citing ‘measurement distortions related to the multinational sector’

Wow. All I see in my industry is people cutting their costs, same in my client who is a wealthy Swiss.

Perhaps all rosy in your world.

Slow growth doesn't equal a recession....

Not the big tax paying ones it seems. Entire children’s hospital cost pretty much covered in the overrun from a single month.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/07/03/surging-corporation-tax-hands-government-unprecedented-war-chest-ahead-of-budget/

It would be great to see us use the windfall to really accelerate some major infrastructure projects which would also be one off spends. Particularly transport related.

But linked to the above, when you see the sheer volume of negative attention largely immaterial overruns on the children’s hospital generates, I’d probably steer clear of them if in government. You take all the grief early and the benefit only comes years after you’ve been chucked out of government.

Probably be more tempted to waste on some more energy credits…

Nearly 10 years and 300% increase in projected costs is immaterial?🤣

It's cronyism and the public know it. But it could be worse, we're not Russia or NK.

If we had decent infrastructure than the blow back wouldn't be half as bad when it overshoots by absolute farcical amounts of time and money.

So it's real chicken and egg stuff.

Irish people prefer to see the government money spent on propping up house prices than being spent on large infrastructure projects. It is nice to be able to get genuinely wealthy in the long term by buying a house in Ireland but it comes at a cost as government money is finite. Just think of the money spent bailing out banks exposed to residential property and all the cash being thrown into the private housing market directly and indirectly by the State; it is staggering and just leaving the housing market alone (in fact unwinding a lot of legislation around planning even) to focus on infrastructure projects would be a better investment and it would insulate the economy from any global crash.

There is a real concentration risk in the economy from the reliance on corporation tax which is effectively stolen tax from other countries the way the superCorps structure their tax affairs which means that any fixing of the loopholes enabling Ireland’s corporation tax take let alone a global recession would severely expose the rest of the country and all the paper wealth in the housing market can quite easily dissipate. Meanwhile we don’t have ambitious infrastructure projects being undertaken and people will wonder where all the money went.

…some irish people want to see the value of their property maintaining the current trend of growing, but some parents and grandparents are starting to see this as a major failure of housing policy. government money actually isnt finite, but we ve also managed to convince ourselves it is, the fact that we refuse to run deficits, which is exactly how governments create money, so by having such limits in place, we become addicted to running our economies primarily by credit created money, which is created by our global financial system, which is hardwired to maximize returns, and the easiest way to do that, is to use it to inflate the price of assets such as, and in particular, related to property. this is one of the main reasons why our property prices are not falling, and wont, as the more credit based money enters the system, the higher prices rise, this is evident all over the world now, hence why many countries are now experiencing hyper inflated property prices, this process is also called financialisation.

we probably should all be running slight deficits, and use that money to build, but dont worry, its not gonna happen, credit is the way forward, and hyper inflated property markets….

An interesting video with multiple inputs on Bric Countries forming their own Gold backed trading Currency and finishing with economic predictions of one year from now… Worth a look if u have time.

https://youtu.be/xNGop6SYW78?si=PSHuNimDOMqOwiBV

…it is certainly interesting to watch the accumulation of gold world wide, including in more advanced economies, but its days are long done in regards having any monetary importance, and any country or region still trying to make it so, will hit the exact same issues that occurred in the 70's, i am still a little baffled why its being accumulated, including by central banks around the world though…..

apologies, but i didnt watch the video, but what points did you find interesting in it, that you find isnt being addressed by more mainstream outlets?

china is the biggest central bank buyer of gold recently…Russia did similar in 4/5 years before they invaded Ukraine…That’s not saying china is planning a war might just be mitigating risk

if USA went to war to defend Taiwan (as they have promised to do in such an event) Nvidia and stock market would be the least of the worries……:Gold leaves less of a paper trail and even if sanctions in place you will nearly always find someone that will accept it.