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USA 2024 presidential election

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I've said it before but Michelle Obama is basically a proxy for her husband in many people's eyes. Ideally they'd love to have him back in but since that's impossible then she's the next best thing for them.

    • Never mind that she has absolutely no legislative or governing experience.
    • Never mind that she has repeatedly indicated that she has no interest in running.
    • Never mind that her husband has stated that she doesn't even like talking about politics

    She can give a good speech and she has the right surname. That's close enough for them.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,497 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Obviously it doesn't count here for those name-checking Michelle, but in terms of Americans doing same, it does kinda reinforce my theory that they love dynasties and the idea of "ruling" families. Clinton, Bush, Kennedy, Trump, Obama: their obsession with the British Royal Family by proxy … I've never shaken the sense that a large clutch of Americans prefer something more regal or inherited in their power structures. Hence what I've seen to be a fairly short jump towards the myth of Strongman Trump to rule over everyone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,553 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    In a move unsurprising to anyone, Trump has essentially threatened Jay Powell, the chair of the Fed.

    Hes warned him not to cut rates before the election, and that he might let him serve out his term "if he thought he was doing the right thing"



  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    ...and 4 months out from the election who is that now? Who is well known to a mostly politically illiterate public and popular and likely to win? Any names within the party ? Kamala is surely worse than Biden or at best no better. Likely to fail.

    If this was 2 years ago I'd agree with you but it's too late in the game now. There's no other candidates



  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Who would you run? Or would you stick with Biden?

    Granted I take your point in her not wanting to be in politics. There's always a chance she'd bite the bullet though if it means stopping Trump but yes it's unlikely.

    As for no legislative experience. It didn't stop Trump. At this stage in the election its about finding a candidate who can beat him last minute. It's too late now to find a gem somewhere in the party and build a campaign for him when most of America won't know them. As I said earlier Biden doesn't even know what day it is and he's in the job. You're surrounded by advisors, a team, the democratic leadership, lobby's and corporations make all the decisions there. As a standard Dem centrist you're a product, a marketing item come election time. Not a serious politician. Whether you're Clinton, Obama, Biden etc all the policies are essentially the same.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,894 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    You're surrounded by advisors, a team, the democratic leadership, lobby's and corporations make all the decisions there. As a standard Dem centrist you're a product, a marketing item come election time. Not a serious politician. Whether you're Clinton, Obama, Biden etc all the policies are essentially the same.

    Do you think it's different for Republicans?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    No one. He isn't going to be replaced. If he was replaced it would overwhelmingly likely be by Harris.

    Michelle Obama is not a reasonable option for multiple reasons.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    As for no legislative experience. It didn't stop Trump

    And that is a bad thing, and they aren't going to be looking to encourage even more of it. Celebrity candidates make for bad politics.



  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    No not at all. Though the republicans are even more off the rails than the Dem. Pretty much extremist. I don't see how it's relevant to my point though either



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,894 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    You singled out Democrats in your post, that's why I asked if you thought the republicans were up to it as well. Last time I checked this was a site based on written posting which quite often relies on back and forth messaging to confirm points?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    I singled out the democrats because I'm talking about their presidential nomination...but yeah it's common knowledge american policy is dictated by lobbies, the military and corporations on both sides or the aisle. Difference with republicans is they're even more beholden to corporations so much so they'll deny climate change etc. And Trump as a candidate is a solo mad dog who'll run with the GOPs demented Conservative agenda but also do and say what he feels like crossing his warped mind on any particular day or moment. And what will also benefit him no matter what.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,582 ✭✭✭amandstu


    If Obama wanted to run ,then she should make her case.I don't think she would be a "celebrity".She seems intelligent ,knowledgeable of the office ,good with words and likeable.

    Parachuting herself in could be bad but if she has a good case to be the candidate then she should not be ruled out just because she is Obama's wife.

    What do you think Trump has in mind for 2028 if he gets in this time?

    I keep saying partially resolving Gaza could be the key but noone takes me up on it.

    Those witholding their votes from the Dems on its account will probably (hopefully) feel very ashamed after if that lets in Trump and his lackeys.



  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    I think unfortunately the only "resolving" of Gaza he'll do is speed up the process of Genocide there and hand Israel the keys to it to turn it into Israels new coastal resort.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I would definitely not run Biden. I think he has no path to victory and if he stands will actually lose quite badly.

    Personally I'd prefer a semi-open contest so that all of the high profile Senators and Governors who are interested could throw their hat in the ring and have a kind of turbo-charged primary campaign. Failing that I'd take Harris over Biden at this stage.

    Yes Trump had no experience either but regarding my other two points he actually wanted the job and talked about his desire for it for decades as well as constantly tweeting about politics for years before he ran.



  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    I agree with you about Biden having no chance but I don't think Kamala would fare much better either. And the limited polls we have now, whilst they might change actually have her worse than Biden.

    The problem with America is so many People there are politically illiterate and ignorant on candidates,.most won't know even the high profile Senators and Goveners off the Dems. None are particularly strong and 4 months is too short a time to build up their name and popularity.

    The sad truth is its rarely about policy either. Its won on force of personality or charisma.. Obama, Clinton, Reagan etc . whatever Trump done he caught lightening in a bottle. The dems are devoid of personality and charisma right now.

    I fear its a no hoper situation at this stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    There is a saying that I often hear which is that Trump is the symptom, not the disease. The ground was laid long before he came on the scene:

    • A 2 party system that naturally amplifies partisan differences
    • 40+ years of widening inequalities since Reagan's "trickle down economics" tax cuts, attack on unions and privitisations
    • An underlying current of fear that permeates the country - driven by 24 hour TV news and made all the more dangerous by many people's fetishization of guns
    • Unresolved racial tensions that appear to be endemic for generations
    • The fact that not a single executive in the financial industry was prosecuted for the actions that led to the 2008 Crash but that millions of working class people paid with their jobs, businesses and houses as a result
    • And then to turbo charge it all the mass adoption of social media with its ability to transmit disinformation all over and whip up anger and fury

    That's fertile ground for a charismatic populist to peddle a bunch of easy answers blaming others for all of the above.

    The really baffling thing is that when Trump was actually in office he did nothing but exacerbate those issues but it doesn't seem to have mattered. He's their guy. That's their identity now



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,632 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I'd say Biden and his team did the maths and projected that what they may lose in young voters through Gaza in particular, they may gain in Conservatives who are on the edge of MAGA land because they are see Trump for what he is but are also long term Pro-Israel supporters.

    And you're right there's very little to generate optimism for younger people. Biden did do some in terms of Debt relief but housing, general prosperity, concern as to the climate issue etc are all significant weights that young people have to carry more and more these days, and he did not do enough there.

    The fact that Trump will likely make things worse rather than better with respect to these things isn't really a strong enough motivator to come out and vote. I'm expecting a significant drop in turn out this time versus 2020.

    The abortion thing may motivate women but a lot of them may feel they already gave Biden a chance in that respect and look at what happened.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,636 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Biden has tested positive for COVID.

    It's a long way to November.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Schiff coming out was a big story IMO. Schiff isn't a Dem heavyweight, but zero chance he did that without the permission of Pelosi. It was similar to last week with Clooney who is besties with Obama.

    A lot of powerful people in the party want him gone and are moving against him.

    Next few people who will call for him to drop out will have to be a bigger name than Schiff which makes it all the more interesting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Forget policy, the overriding issue for voters, miles above anything else, is his age. It dominates and overshadows everything. It's lights out stuff.

    Imagine if e.g. Trump suddenly developed a stutter. The entire world would be focused on nothing but that stutter. His political career would die overnight.

    Biden's aides did well to keep it under wrap, limiting his time in front of the camera, all that, but now the cat is fully out of the box - and it's a killer. And sadly it's only going to get worse.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 82,587 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    If you were go write a soap opera about the US election, you couldn't make it more off the wall than it is in reality 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,458 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Schumer, Jefferies, Pelosi, Schiff et al, all calling for him to step aside. This is untenable and his obstinacy in the face of reality is getting more and more outrageous.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,810 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I always have to wonder - these politicians like Nikki Haley who Trump belittled and personally insulted during the primary season - does it eat at them that they must then go the RNC and pledge fealty to that same man with a whole hearted endorsement? Not only that, but because the base is so in thrall to Trump, she must know that she can never be more than an underling and sycophant.

    Ted Cruz may grow a beard, but when he looks in the bathroom mirror, does he see a man? I cannot imagine he does.

    And the system is perfectly self sustaining. Because all these acolytes must take abuse from Trump as and when they challenge his position, and they take it, they lose respect, which cements their places in the hierarchy of the party as nothing more than balls for Trump to bounce.

    "Sad".



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    He's a juggernaut they can't touch nor challenge, they either kiss the ring or they are out of the game. They don't give one toss about the insults or anything, they are all just jostling for position. Haley was gambling on the faint hope he'd go to prison, since that seems an impossibility now, she's playing the game.



  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    So two thirds of democrats polled say Biden should step step aside. Schumer Pelosi and Jeffreys arguably the three most powerful people in the party have told Biden directly he has to step aside too. If he doesn't him and his team really are selfish and are making a major historical error. I can probably forgive Biden more since he's possibly being encouraged by his team and only shown certain polls not the reality on the ground.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,935 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    All in all, he's their "imperfect vessel". Their backers get massive tax cuts, clampdowns on unions and the rollback of abortion access, immigrant and LGBT rights - who cares about such "trifling" things like Ukraine or American democracy?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Not to mention that a presidential candidate stepping aside at this point is exactly the kind of seismic event that will create it's own drama and newscycles, stealing attention from Trump (which is what he thrives on) and providing extraordinary energy for the Dems to ride on

    It's a no-brainer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Didn't Ardern take over 6 weeks before the NZ election ? They got a fresh face who didn't really change policy much and got a big poll bump and won.

    Pelosi and others are clearly not just looking at the presidential election, but also how Biden is hindering other dems on the ballot when it comes to congress and the senate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Yeah there's a "fresh" factor to it which could really play well.

    I'm not remotely knowledgeable as yourself on US politics, but it's the same common denominator, a campaign needs energy



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  • Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭thatsdaft


    Is there anyone who democrats could wheel out let’s say in next month who

    • is young (says 30s to 50s)
    • Is recognisable by average American (business or entertainment figure?)
    • Can troll Trump and have him melt down
    • reply to Trump nonsense with “ok boomer”
    • Point out that Trump is ancient and low energy and keeps falling asleep
    • is from a key rustbelt state
    • Had experience as governor or similar

    Politically the absolutely worst nightmare case for trump campaign is Biden not running against him



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