Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Trump promising to cut corporation tax to 15% if elected. source twitter

Might want to work on new competitive advantages like, maybe, housing

The risk profile of buy to let makes it a very poor investment. Add on the eye watering interest rates for a BTL and it very quickly becomes not worthwhile. Much better returns elsewhere

What the government is doing is the main driver of house prices. The majority of ftb are buying 2nd hand homes. The driver of prices is new builds, this is where the majority of market interference is

I believe I'm not informed enough to fully understand some of this post

Just by way of clarification..does this mean that a large majority of govt debt is a direct result of quantitave easing...because in order to introduce more liquidity to the system govt bonds (debt) have been purchased from itself...or EU doing it for countries in EU?

Therefore its introduced more money but just by borrowing from its future self?

And a lot of this extra money doesn't make its way into the real Joe bloggs economy because its spent on investment in infrastructure etc so it doesn't have nearly as big an effect on inflation as people think?

Something along those lines?

Just to argue for the sake of it (i might learn something)...does it not mean that govts don't really have to tighten their belts due to the put it on the never never aspect of it....or at least prolonging the day of reckoning indefinitely...and that has a big influence on inflation as they will only squeeze majority of voters out of necessity......but at some stage the piper will have to be paid?

Cant see the link, but the govt are providing 250k towards construction cost per unit?

The government did not sell them NAMA sold them. It 2aa at arms length from the government. Maybe the government should have purchased them but that is another discussion

New homes output stalling

Can't flight inflation, and can't fight 100,000+ per year annual population growth with an output of under 35,000 houses per year.

If I was saving to buy a house in the next 2-3 years I'd be worried. The only way is up, unfortunately.

And it'll be very hard to outsave the yearly increases, as well as pay sky high rent, as well as build a substantial deposit for the vast majority of Irish workers.

think this stat is not just people living with parents but is people dependent on parents financially which would mean a significant portion of people away at third level are counted despite not living at home during college terms.

Mortgage drawdown figures for 2nd qtr released.

FTB buying 2/3s old properties v 1/3 new properties. It would appear that the grants to help first time buyers are increasingly pricng out first time buyers.

2,404 represents less than 1/3 of new homes output adjusted per quarter and includes self builds indicating that despite multiple incentives more than 2/3s of new homes are outside ftb budgets

The report and other reports reveal that the 2nd hand market is at its lowest levels in terms of stock

Second hand sales are increasingly landlords leaving the market, thereby increasing the dysfunction of the the market for new entrants.

Government policies are making the market much worse

The survey found that six in 10 sales in Limerick City in 2023 involved landlords selling their rental properties and leaving the market, with four sales in 10 in the county being fleeing landlords

Build to rent are more profitable than to sell for apartments. We also have an extremely large rental deficit so this is much needed.

Investors wanting to capitalise on some of the lowest prices relative to rental yields in developed world

Despite this every apartment is getting a taxpayer grant of up to 130k plus a waiver of development fees and water connection fees, yes investors are well looked after not to mention the tax advantages on the rental income, which is so high most traditional rental consumers are living with parents

Government being forced to acquire en masse due to pressure from left wing parties to address social housing stock

Approved housing bodies per above

Whatever your political leaning, almost every government measure has been criticised by independent analysts as been inflationary and doing little to solve the problem and far more likely to make it worse, hence your queues at new developments in Dublin, maybe they might be better off going to the commuter counties where 40% of buyers are Dublin workers.

83% of the new houses for sale to open market were bought by FTBs. You are concluding this as evidence that FTBs can’t afford new houses…remarkable

83% = 2404 which includes self builds

Self builds account circa 5,000 p/a of new homes output. Self builds by there nature are not for general sale but would be included in ftb figures where the occupants are ftb's. Self builds in general are in possession of a site which would be 20% of the cost of the home and qualify for FTB grant and first home scheme. One could ask if this is wise spending of taxpayer funds for a home that would probably be built were the grants available or not

5000/4 = 1250 per quarter

2404 - 1250 = 1154

1,154 ftbs per quarter of new build homes is an abysmal outcome given the taxpayer funding that is being thrown at it. Developers, land owners and funds are the main benificaries of this spend and the main lobbyists determining policy.

The vast majority of people searching for a home to buy or rent are the big loosers.

@datadude Are you comfortable with your hard earned taxes funding this dysfunction?