USA 2024 presidential election

Just seen this

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4777222-biden-replacement-democrats-battleground/

The memo singled out four Democrats who bested Biden’s results by roughly 5 points overall across the battleground states: Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Mark Kelly would be an interesting candidate:

• Former Astronaut
• Has won statewide in a swing state
• Wife survived a political assassination - unlike Trump, she was severely injured

Yeah I don't think America is ready for a directly elected gay President. The ethnic minorities in particular might be tough to win over. Shame though as I'd say he'd be a good one.

If Harris, who would be the VP? Would that be a way Pete could get on, or would they go with the more establishment Newsom.

Well, it does give trump the chance to call astronaut's losers as well (and no doubt mock his wife for being shot).

I know nothing about Harris. She seems like the most silent VP in a while. I do wonder though if the chance to eject the first woman president might energise voters. To be fair it didn’t count for much in 2016 with a much better candidate in Hillary.

Harris/Shapiro. West and East coast.

the thing to remember is be it Biden Harris etc is that the people behind them are out of a job if someone else comes along. There will be a lot of inertia to keep things the way they are, the Dems must know they are likely out on their ear in Nov so the only small thing they have now is that they get President Harris for 4 months as a minor win ?

Biden is a lame duck at this stage so smart people will be trying to look over the horizon trying to find their life rafts and no doubt existing donors are mad finding out they have been throwing money down a pit

That would be a major factor in the choice of candidate I'm imagine

As I called it earlier this week, latest individual polls on 538 all showing Trump ahead

That model is banjaxed.

Nate Solver left 538 some time ago.

I listened to one of their podcasts with the new modeller. It seems that it discounts polls this far out in favour of "fundamentals". There it prizes things like economic indicators (such as unemployment (low) and the DOW Jones (high)) and incumbency. All of those favour Biden.

Thing is that that stuff didn't seem to matter before the debate and it definitely doesn't matter after it.

They used have a Now Cast version of the model that was just based on polling. If they still had that available it would show Trump winning heavily

He has to say that he is staying in right up until the moment that he drops out. If he wavers at all then he's done.

Any candidate can say they will build upon Biden's legacy, that they will continue fight etc. They have the benefit of not being tied to any negative things, like Israel.

Johnson stepped down without running afaik.

Last week great example, delivered a decent speech with plenty of policy detail and all people remembered for it was how he misnamed people and his gaffes. That will be the story for the next 4 months if he stays.

The Dems have 2 choices, firstly get a new general public or replace Biden. One option is easier than the other.

Don't forget option 5. Biden runs out the clock and gets nominated after sticking two fingers up at the entire party and then goes on to lose all of the swing states amidst the biggest drubbing for the Democratic party since the 1980s

Biden could be right that he is the best candidate but if he cannot convince his party of that ,then it will be a Pyrrhic victory if he remains the candidate.

I haven't watched the debate but I get the sense that people are factoring in 4 more years (from November 2024 onwards) and finding it hard to be confident that he will be able to do the job over that timeframe.

If he thinks he can ,then he should say it and I think he also has to produce trustworthy and specific medical opinion that this is a good probability .

Do we have examples in other countries where the leading political figure has done a good job up until 85 years old?

I don't feel comforted by him having a good VP .Those VP's should only be employed as backup in exceptional circumstances and not in the case of foreseebly likely age-related decline.

If that decline is unlikely in his case I want it to be explained why it is so.

That said ,of course he is better than Trump (mostly anyone ,anything is -and Biden is far,far better than Trump) but if he can't get elected that is academic.