General Irish politics discussion thread

I'd go bigger, 6 or 7 seaters please.

The counts would take forever though haha!

I like the counts. An extra couple of hours or a day or so to get even more proportionality is a good thing in my books.

It's a simple calculation though isn't it, and the scale of the totals are actually known at each stage.

e.g., using handy whole numbers. 4 seater, 50,000 votes. Therefore the Quota is 10001 (50,000/5 +1) and anyone above it is declared elected because it is a mathematical certainly.

Say no-one is elected and the last candidate is eliminated with 1000 votes and only 600 of them have a second preference to be distributed. We now know that the true quota has changed to 49600/5 + 1 = 9921. Anyone above this is mathematically certain to be elected yet they aren't declared elected until they reach 10001. It's not a big deal, just a minor inconsistency imo. Personally I think you should be declared elected when it is beyond all maths doubt, but not the way the system works.

No, I think it'd still be fine, albeit clumsy. The new real-time, true and scientific Quota would only apply to the next count.

Is it any worse than the current system of my vote transferring to someone who is already elected beyond all mathematical doubt but hasn't yet reached the original but by now obsolete quota? That also seems a type of disenfranchisement to me.

Can't agree. If my vote goes to someone who is mathematically certain to be elected (because they've already reached the true quota) but hasn't yet reached the original quota, then I've been disenfranchised. My vote should have transferred to the next person on my list where it might have an effect. Instead it pointlessly transferred to someone who is already home and dry, but not yet officially declared. That's disenfranchisement imo.

This isn't true "Until that happens, it's still mathematically possible for someone else to win a seat.". Like that's my whole point. The original quota is a logical formula based on the votes in play, so 50,000 votes, 4 seater, Quota = 50,000/5, +1. As the count goes on, votes die (no longer transferable). When there is say just 45K votes left in play, the real-time quota is 45,000/5, +1. Anyone above this figure it's impossible for them to be caught, yet they chug on until they reach the original 10K quota (or elected w/o reaching it).

For example, consider a ballot with top preferences A, B, C, and D in that order, where the weightings of the candidates are 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, and 𝑑, respectively. From this ballot A will retain 𝑟𝐴=𝑎, B will retain 𝑟𝐵=(1−𝑎)𝑏, C will retain 𝑟𝐶=(1−𝑎)(1−𝑏)𝑐, and D will retain 𝑟𝐷=(1−𝑎)(1−𝑏)(1−𝑐)𝑑.

Why on earth didn't this catch on? 😁

Can a new thread be set up to discuss electoral systems? This has taken over a couple of threads and has been the same comments repeatedly for close to two months now. While it is related to General Irish politics, it is a specific topic which goes far beyond the scope of this thread, particularly given the depth to which it is being discussed.

Does anyone think one of ROG, Harris and McEntee could miss out in the next election?

ROG only scraped through the last time a bit like Simon Harris so if their support drops at all they're likely to miss out.

McEntee on the other hand came second in a 3 horse race. There was no refugee crisis then so two of the losers then Aontu's Eimear Toibin and Independent Sharon Keogan could challenge her position. Both these candidates are completely against and outspoken regarding the refugee crisis so it's possible they'll gain enough support to challenge.

Every week there's negative publicity around McEntee so who knows support could drop opening the door for the others. Her saving grace could come from the fact they haven't pushed huge numbers of IPA's into her constituency. Towns like Ashbourne, Rataoth, Dunboyne and Trim largely unaffected by the goings on.