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USA 2024 presidential election

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Comments

  • #872
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400080#Comment_122400080

    An open convention is exactly the sort of box office that the Democrats desperately need. The DNC to make sure the various candidates are clear on what will fly, no negative muck raking, a focus on positivity and vision.



  • #873
    rolling boh
    Registered Users Posts: 2,087 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    Guy on the radio this morning suggesting that Harris has been approached and told if she goes for it now she is unlikely to win so her political career is over .If she looked at going for it in four years time she might have a better chance ,wonder will that scenario come into play .



  • #874
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,341 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400200#Comment_122400200

    Doesn't quite add up for me. If AN Other Democrat goes for it now and wins… they are in the White House for 4-8 years, with their VP in strong position to be next nominee. If AN Other Democrat goes for it and loses, is their political career over then? So who would volunteer for that?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #875
    rolling boh
    Registered Users Posts: 2,087 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    Must be some Democrats maybe close to Harris have given up on beating Trump this time so want her to wait .At this stage it must be odds on Trump wins unfortunately. If Vance were to run next time who knows how he will be regarded especially if though unlikely he falls out with Trump .



  • #876
    martingriff
    Registered Users Posts: 11,049 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400042#Comment_122400042

    I say (hopefully) a mail is ready to go to all big donars would you like your donation back or transfered (if possible). The smaller donors you would not know



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  • #877
    Derkaiser93
    Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400143#Comment_122400143

    Worth noting though that their forecast model remarkably still has Biden ahead with 53% to 46% and estimated electoral seat 276 to 262



  • #878
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400547#Comment_122400547

    All polls and forecasts are as useful as chocolate teapots these days.



  • #879
    elefant
    Registered Users Posts: 4,670 ✭✭✭elefant


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122398073#Comment_122398073

    I think I saw more positive-spin stuff about her on social media in 4 hours this morning than in the previous 4 years. Makes me think something might be brewing.



  • #880
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400606#Comment_122400606

    IIRC, 538 were the only outlet giving Trump any kind of reasonable chance in 2016; I wanna say they had him down as a 1/3 chance vs. the various polls maniacally calling Clinton a dead cert to walk it. I'd keep their analysis in mind, without outright them outright psychics.



  • #881
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,345 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400547#Comment_122400547

    That model is banjaxed.

    Nate Solver left 538 some time ago.

    I listened to one of their podcasts with the new modeller. It seems that it discounts polls this far out in favour of "fundamentals". There it prizes things like economic indicators (such as unemployment (low) and the DOW Jones (high)) and incumbency. All of those favour Biden.

    Thing is that that stuff didn't seem to matter before the debate and it definitely doesn't matter after it.

    They used have a Now Cast version of the model that was just based on polling. If they still had that available it would show Trump winning heavily



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  • #882
    Derkaiser93
    Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400606#Comment_122400606

    Then bar 538 model the Biden campaign has nothing to be worried about and its all to play for.

    As another poster noted above thought I didn't realise the changes since 2020 and certain methodology used in the 538 forecast so that puts some questions on it



  • #883
    Derkaiser93
    Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Sounds like Biden still planning to stay now too...



  • #884
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,110 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400547#Comment_122400547

    The similar forecast model that had Hilary significantly ahead.

    I'm paying attention to the individual polls. Normally they trade blows, that has completely changed recently, it's constantly Trump now. 538 has turned completely red.

    It's not just 538, check NYT

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html



  • #885
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,345 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400887#Comment_122400887

    He has to say that he is staying in right up until the moment that he drops out. If he wavers at all then he's done.



  • #886
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,110 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401085#Comment_122401085

    This is exactly the case, even if it was decided last week, or last month, or last year he was going, he has to play it like he is staying in until the moment it's announced otherwise for optics. Which are everything in politics.



  • #887
    martingriff
    Registered Users Posts: 11,049 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400887#Comment_122400887

    Has to sat that. First time you hear it will be his next big news conference



  • #888
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,515 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400887#Comment_122400887

    I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to stick it out despite all the media reporting suggesting he's gone.

    Plenty of journalists latched onto the report that he was examining Kamala's polling as a sign that he is dropping out. I'm not so sure, I actually think it's Biden's campaign pushing back - the polling for Kamala is pretty dire. Biden will point out she can't win either and at least he has incumbency advantage.

    The DNC could descent into an absolute farce if they decide to dump Kamala and go for an open convention. I don't see how they will manage it.

    We'll see I guess.



  • #889
    Derkaiser93
    Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401085#Comment_122401085

    They didn't have to put out any statement at all though. And if they did and he was actually going to drop out then why not say that? The talk was he'd drop by this weekend. So tomorrow or Sunday. No need to pull out a statement from nowhere. I think it's worse optics for the dems to have uncertainty yday, then confirmation he's staying today and then confirmation he's dropping out tomorrow or few days later. Looks even more chaotic than already was.



  • #890
    Augme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,035 ✭✭✭Augme


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401224#Comment_122401224

    How is it pretty dire? She seems to be level with Bidem despite on most polls, despite not having the same exposure that being the incumbent President brings. She's definitely a risk, but Biden is a guaranteed failure.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/18/heres-how-kamala-harris-performs-in-polls-against-trump-as-she-emerges-as-most-likely-biden-replacement/



  • #891
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,515 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401280#Comment_122401280

    Trump is comfortably ahead of her in the polling and she has never outpolled him. Biden was performing better in the polling in a match up against Trump as compared to Kamala, until the debate performance.

    Biden's polling has fallen down to her level, but her polling figures were never great. She hasn't a hope of winning.



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  • #892
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The other conundrum also becomes: if Biden drops out, what's the new narrative? As least wit Biden running your campaign stands over his performance and the things he has done or aims to do. What do you say instead with Harris or any other candidate? They can't lay claim to any of the current administration's achievements; maybe Harris can at a pinch to be fair, if her promise is to basically continue to deliver Biden's agenda? It's such a weird situation.

    Just to be clear, this is a first right? Have there been any other sitting presidents to voluntarily step down during their own re-election campaign?



  • #893
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401348#Comment_122401348

    Any candidate can say they will build upon Biden's legacy, that they will continue fight etc. They have the benefit of not being tied to any negative things, like Israel.

    Johnson stepped down without running afaik.



  • #894
    Augme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,035 ✭✭✭Augme


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401335#Comment_122401335

    She's a relative unknown at this stage. I wouldn't expect an unknown to out poll Trump. She needs exposure and to be front and centre to have a chance. The same with any other potential democrat candidate. None of them will out poll at this stage. The question is whether the can do it in November.

    Biden definitely cant. That's the issue for the democratic. As the weeks go by, Biden's bit going to become younger,more energetic, more lucid, less mistake prone. The opposite is much more likely to happen.



  • #895
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401468#Comment_122401468

    Last week great example, delivered a decent speech with plenty of policy detail and all people remembered for it was how he misnamed people and his gaffes. That will be the story for the next 4 months if he stays.

    The Dems have 2 choices, firstly get a new general public or replace Biden. One option is easier than the other.



  • #896
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401494#Comment_122401494

    I see the Dems having a few choices.

    1. Biden steps down as a candidate. That is essential if Trump is to be beaten. But will he?
    2. Biden resigns as President (unlikely) and so Kamala Harris becomes President. So as President, she will get a lot of exposure which hopefully will be all positive. She can say Trump is just as doddery as Biden and older than Biden was in 2020, and has made loads of gaffes, and starts quoting them. She then starts pointing out the lies, and there are lots of them. Then listing the convictions, and other legal troubles. Points out how he was unable to raise the wind to appeal the $480 million finding against him, and he is always begging for funding at every possible opportunity. How he has been found to have committed rape, and he is a convicted felon awaiting sentence. And so on.
    3. Biden does not recommend Harris, well an open conference could give rise to anything. The GOP had a totally unified conference so the Dems must have the same, and that is unlikely if there is not an agreed candidate.
    4. It is possible a suitable candidate could be selected who would then choose Harris as VP, but I doubt if any of the possibly or likely winners would have her as VP. I have no idea how that would fly - probably badly.

    It is all up to Biden, who does not have dementia, nor Parkinson, but he does have Covid. Now that is a better out, if he takes it.



  • #897
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,345 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401700#Comment_122401700

    Don't forget option 5. Biden runs out the clock and gets nominated after sticking two fingers up at the entire party and then goes on to lose all of the swing states amidst the biggest drubbing for the Democratic party since the 1980s



  • #898
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402431#Comment_122402431

    That is what worries me most.



  • #899
    amandstu
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,711 ✭✭✭amandstu


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402431#Comment_122402431

    Biden could be right that he is the best candidate but if he cannot convince his party of that ,then it will be a Pyrrhic victory if he remains the candidate.

    I haven't watched the debate but I get the sense that people are factoring in 4 more years (from November 2024 onwards) and finding it hard to be confident that he will be able to do the job over that timeframe.

    If he thinks he can ,then he should say it and I think he also has to produce trustworthy and specific medical opinion that this is a good probability .

    Do we have examples in other countries where the leading political figure has done a good job up until 85 years old?

    I don't feel comforted by him having a good VP .Those VP's should only be employed as backup in exceptional circumstances and not in the case of foreseebly likely age-related decline.

    If that decline is unlikely in his case I want it to be explained why it is so.

    That said ,of course he is better than Trump (mostly anyone ,anything is -and Biden is far,far better than Trump) but if he can't get elected that is academic.



  • #900
    sdgsgrfs
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭sdgsgrfs


    The vice presidential pick has put a big question mark on Trumps chances of winning.



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  • #901
    squonk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,434 ✭✭✭squonk


    I can’t see how Biden can stay in. The jokes were always there that he was old and doddery but he got by and looked mostly competent. Things seem to have gone very downhill lately though. I’d sooner see him re-elected if the choice was him or Trump but I honestly couldn’t say he’ll be in a state to do the job by the end of next year let along up til 28. That’s the huge problem. He just doesn’t inspire confidence. I can’t believe the democrats let it get this far. Mind you he seemed fairly well last year during his visit here. Something has happened in the meantime though.

    Post edited by squonk on


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