Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Nuclear - future for Ireland?

Options
15051525355

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,942 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Did you miss the Anthropogenic Global Warming question Charlie?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    It is my experience that there is a strong statistical correlation between been a nuclear advocate and been a AGM denier.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,157 ✭✭✭gjim


    Indeed. If Charlie turns out to be a denialist, we're looking at perfect 100% correlation amongst the pro-nuclear crowd here, I believe?

    Seems a little harsh to ask this question directly instead of directly engaging with Charlie's "arguments". On the other hand life's too short - it's like "debating" the archeology and history of the Middle East with a believer in Young Earth Creationism. Science, facts, evidence, statistics will just be like water off a duck's back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    The issue for a climate change deniers is that pursuing nuclear will actually cement in an elevated emissions profile for at least two decades, well past the point where we will be in breach of our climate change obligations.

    Nuclear would crowd out renewables and the rapid emisson cuts they offer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Do you know what would make a pleasant change ?

    You answering a question for once.

    In relation to emission/global warming/electricity generation, which European country has the lowest emissions and what is their predominant fuel source for electricity generation ?



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,721 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Yes, this is why I find it difficult calling myself "Pro Nuclear" these days!

    20 years ago it was mostly just folks interested in technology, science and engineering. But over the past 10 years or so it has been taken over by so many different folks. Some folks seem to threat it almost like some sort of religious zealot, some folks who believe in conspiracy theories, climate change deniers, conservatives, contrarians, etc.

    The old fashioned pro Nuke folks are also usually big supporters of renewables too, because cool new science and technology that is improving everyone's lives!

    I do think Nuclear has a part to play at a global level in reducing carbon emissions, but boy is the Nuclear industry in really bad shape!

    I'd love to discuss the issues with like minded folks, on why the Nuclear industry is in such a bad shape and if it can be fixed and Nuclear made to fit in and work with renewables.

    But instead you end up getting shouted down by the zealots who either don't know or don't want to admit just how bad the Nuclear industry is in and the problems it faces!

    And worse are the climate change deniers, IME they don't even really want Nuclear, they just want to continue to burn coal, oil and gas, but they know that looks bad to most people, so instead they say we should build Nuclear, knowing perfectly well that it would take decades and unlikely to ever happen and instead leaves us doing nothing and just sticking to burns coal, etc.

    It is all quiet sad.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,721 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Sweden, followed by Malta and Romania:

    https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/2019/10/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country

    Sweden is primary hydro.

    If you mean just electricity then Norway which is mostly hydro, if you want just the EU, then Sweden again:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-intensity-electricity

    Now you answer the question, what is your position on AGW ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Can you answer when Ireland would start saving emission once we decided to commission a reactor. That's the only relevant question for a nuclear Ireland and your question is a distraction from that question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 897 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Eh buying nuclear fuel from the U.S. is not self sufficiency.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,627 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    https://stat.fi/en/statistics/ehk#graphs

    2020 had low demand for obvious reasons, other than that Finland has been importing ~20TWh since 2012. But then imports dropped 5 TWh in 2022 and that had nothing to do with nuclear.

    CHP was 20-22 TWh from 2014 onward then dropped to 16 TWh in 2022 and that had nothing to do with nuclear either.

    2023 was the 14th year in a row that wind produced more energy than OLK-3

    Wind grew by 6.31 TWh in 3 years. That's half of OLK 3's annual output. And if anything that trend will accelerate.

    2023 14.47 TWh

    2022 11.56 TWh

    2021 8.16 TWh

    https://www.hitachienergy.com/news/features/2023/09/finnish-wind-energy-shatters-records-sets-the-stage-for-unprecedented-sustainable-journey

    Fingrid has 200,000 megawatts of inquiries to connect wind farms to the
    grid.  This high figure in the amount of ongoing development illustrates
    the huge potential of wind, far exceeding Finland’s current peak demand
    (15,000 MW),

    It takes about 6 months to commission a fully finished, grid connected, fuelled nuclear power plant. Renewables operate on different timescales.

    For Mutkalampi, the customers chose a Grid-eXpand variant with modular
    electric housing, which is widely used in Finland and many other
    countries. The modules contain medium-voltage equipment, control and
    protection, and auxiliaries. They are prefabricated and preassembled
    locally by Hitachi Energy before delivery and take just one or two hours
    to install on-site, compared to 2-3 months for a conventional
    solution. 

    Offshore wind in southern Finland is easy pickings, shallow waters and close enough that you can use AC cables.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Eh Finland is producing all their wind turbines and solar panels from their own resources !

    When did that happen Paddy ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    The wind, ie the fuel is entirely Finnish.

    No one is solely responsible for their own energy infrastructure - but you can be entirely self sufficient in fuel.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    How much emissions does Ireland save once we decide to commission a wind or solar farm ?

    The relevant fact you and others here are jumping through hoops trying to avoid is that we have a 37GW plan for 2050 that will not provide anywhere close to our projected needs, that will cost in excess of €250 Bn. in total, will require further capital investment every 20 years. It would result in conummers paying twice the strike price because of the hydrogen element, with consummer also having to pay for all the desalinisation, electrosis, storage and distribution relating to the hydrogen on top, and still have to pay on top again for any hydogen burned (emitting NOX in the process) to generate electricity rather than even attempt to seriously look at nuclear as an alternative.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Rather a pedantic little point when you consider the cost of the energy infrastucture you are in favour off.

    Which reminds me, still waiting on your figures for that infrastructure. Any chance of you coming up with them anytime soon ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Did you miss that I linked AGW to emissions and electricity generation #1626



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    A wind turbine pays back it's immissions in less than 4 years, that's about 30years sooner than a nuclear plant



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Actually what it looks like is the fall back position of the poster it appears you are replying to when unable to debate their point comes up with "Are you a Sinn Fein supporter" that has had him ran out of numerous threads.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    A nuclear plant has a lifespan of 60 years and has over twice the capacity factor of a wind turbine.

    Did you miss that I`m still waiting on those promised infrasructure costs for the 2050 37GW plan that will not even provide the projected 2050 requirements ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Is not an answer to the question how long till a nuclear poweplant starts to reduce immissions. AGW sets time limits on useful reductions to immissions which nuclear power plants simply speed past.

    Your diversion tactic are a little sad.



  • Registered Users Posts: 897 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Eh solar panels and wind turbines are not fuel.

    They are structures like the massive amount of concrete common to nuclear plants and wind turbine bases .

    At least the fuel is renewable for renewables.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Norway, Sweden and Romania have a luxury that we do not have or are ever going to have. A high level of generation from hydro. Sweden and Romania respectively generated 47% and 32.5% of their electricity from hydro in 2023. For Norway it`s practically 100%. Sweden also generated 34% of its electricity in 2023 from nuclear as did Romania with 19.9% from nuclear. For both wind played a very minor part in their overall generation with Sweden at 10% and Romania at 13.4%.

    Where you came up with Romania and Malta as low emitters I have no idea. From LowCarbonPower Romania`s generation mix.

    which has Romania emissions for 2023 at 240gCO2/KWh and Malta is another strange one as their generation mix is 62.5% gas, solar 16.9% and imports 19.7% with emissions for 2023 at 460gCO2/KWh.

    When you consider the generation mix it`s not difficult to see how their emissions are so high and would be even higher in Malta`s case without the imports.

    If you were seriously looking for European countries with low emissions then perhaps you should have looked at France as well as Sweden. But then with France at 56gCO2/KWh due to their high generation from nuclear that didn`t suit your narrative. Not that it matters, at the the end of the day none of those you mentioned can credit your preferred wind power with much if anything for their emissions.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,627 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Over the next five and half years the UK will pay £45Bn for Zero GW. That's the cost of using DRAX to provide the missing 3.2 GW power from Hinkley-C. Assuming it gets built according to EDF's schedule which has been wrong so far so it could be more.

    And DRAX isn't even low emissions, it's roughly the same as CCGT. It'll cost another £45 Bn in BECCS subsidies over the rest of the life of the plant to sort out the emissions.

    Also since Hinkley-C was supposed to be producing power for Christmas 2017 so you can add six historical years of DRAX emission. It only stopped using coal last year.

    We are on the path to reduce emissions by 80% by 2030. So nuclear could only reduce emissions by 20% tops.

    Thinking about it I'm not even sure nuclear on the Irish grid could meet emissions criteria because of the gas nuclear is absolutely dependent upon for peaking, backup and spinning reserve.

    Yes we could provide LOT of batteries (pumped storage isn't fast enough) but it's another cost and also means you could have had more renewables on the grid and reduces the economic case for nuclear further.

    Nuclear is a rent seeker looking for a guaranteed income stream regardless of current demand or wholesale price.

    Since the capital costs and most of the running costs are fixed, the only way to reduce the price is keep output as high as possible for as long as possible. Hinkley C if/when it starts generating power will have index linked price increases for a further 35 years. It will be shielded from the marginal prices from 30 year old wind or solar farms.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    As I said already Paddy, a pedantic post when you consider the €250 Bn cost of the total infrastructure with further capital spends every 20 odd years to use that "free" intermittent fuel not to mention the cost of electricity to the consummer afterwards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,104 ✭✭✭Shoog


    No one has ever presented the final bill for a nuclear power plant - ever.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    From your posts J have often wondered that with this total fixation you have on Hinkley do you ever even look look at or consider anything else.

    For ORESS indexation has been introduced for operation and maintenance costs and the contracts are for 20 years, more or less the lifetime of the turbines, with a guarantee that we will pay for everything they generate even if we do not need or use it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,157 ✭✭✭gjim


    What an odd sidestep there charlie? I may disagree with many or most SF policies but it’s possible to have a rational debate with SF voters.

    It’s not possible to have a rational debate with conspiracy theorists (anti-vaxers, climate change denialists, chemtrails, moon-landing-skeptics, etc.) or religious fundamentalists.

    SF voters aren’t generally ashamed of stating they support SF in my experience. Why so ashamed of your belief that anthropomorphic climate change is a hoax?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,627 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Hornsea 3 is £8.6 (€10.2Bn) for 2.9GW. At that price 37 GW would cost €130 Bn if that's how things worked and wind suddenly stops getting cheaper in real terms. (Hint : the Chinese are now making 18-20MW turbines)

    In actuality the CfD price for Hornsea 3 is £37.35 per MWh in 2012 prices for 15 years. A commitment of (560.25 £years)

    Hinkley C CfD price is £92.5/MWh in 2012 prices for 35 years. A commitment of (3237.50 £years)

    Nuclear has twice the capacity factor of offshore wind. This means that at a first approximation half the time it's power is only worth at most £37.35per MWh. That means the price to be paid the other half of the time is £147.45 (2012) = £205.80 (June 2024) = €244.05/MWh. And that's before you consider solar or renewables or storage or imports or demand shedding which reduce the times nuclear is needed.

    The price nuclear gets when there's no wind is almost four times the price of wind.

    Storage, solar, over-provision of wind and energy to fuel start to look very attractive. Especially in 10 years or so when the older wind farms come out of CfD and go to open market prices vs 30 years of lock in with nuclear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,127 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Give over with your nonsense. I have never said I was a climate change denier. In fact in my replies I linked anthropomorphic climate change with emissions and electricity generation.

    When it comes to religious fundamentalists for many green supporters I have engaged with you do not often have to scratch very deep to find the similarities. The self righteousness, the refusal to consider anything other than their own ideology, the attempts at killing debate, the speed at which they turn to calling others who disagree with them heritics etc. etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,729 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I doubt the ones in North Mayo are given the vast destruction of peatland and forests during their construction, plus hauling endless loads of stone etc. via heavy lorries from quarries up to 50km away!!



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,583 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Plant and transportation emissions are included in the build emissions for wind farms. That "less than 4 years" is an average, but the deviation is narrow, as tranport is the only variable factor.

    In the worst possible case, let's say they bring all the materials in by small trucks from the other end of the country, and so it takes six years for generation to offset it's initial emissions, not four. That still puts it at an order of magnitude shorter than a NPP.



Advertisement