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Electoral systems discussion

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  • 19-07-2024 4:57pm
    #1
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭


    Can a new thread be set up to discuss electoral systems? This has taken over a couple of threads and has been the same comments repeatedly for close to two months now. While it is related to General Irish politics, it is a specific topic which goes far beyond the scope of this thread, particularly given the depth to which it is being discussed.

    This is a fair point so I'm starting this thread as a dedicated place for these conversations



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    #2
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    6 or 7 seat constituencies would be geographically very large, in rural situations.

    This is true although with so many candidates there likely wouldn't be any regions that would be without at least 1 TD



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    #3
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If computer counting was used, the solution is obvious.

    If I cast my vote as follows in order of preference: A, B, C, D, E.

    Now A gets elected on count 1 with 2 quotas. B gets eliminated on count 2, E gets eliminated on count 3, C gets elected on count 5, D gets elected on count 4.

    So what happens to my vote? Well, only 50% of my vote is needed to elect A. None of my vote is used for B. C gets 50% of my vote. D and E gets none of my vote, D is already elected before my preference is available.

    Once the quota is set, the vote is shared out as required at each count, and the remaining part of the vote carries on until it dies as no further candidate remains.

    So, in a 4 seater. 20% of the vote, at least, dies without a home. Think about it, if there are 5 candidates, then all the votes for the candidate that comes 5th die.

    [Edit - I assume every candidate elected gets exactly one quota.]

    So, computer counting will be able to solve the riddle of the quota.

    100 years ago, this would not have been possible.

    Post edited by Sam Russell on


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    #4
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,949 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Don't they have partial transfers for seanad elections? Similar to above...



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    #5
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402043#Comment_122402043

    They do, but much smaller no of voters.



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    #6
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,949 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402486#Comment_122402486

    But same logic could work if there was computerised counting?

    Note - I favour the retention of current system as it is, including the count.



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    #7
    RoyalCelt
    Registered Users Posts: 2,804 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    How about a system that takes everyone's first preference as the starting point but instead of taking the second preference of those eliminated they take the second preference from everybody for count 2? And so on. For count 3 accumulate everybody's 3rd choice etc etc.

    What are the downsides to this?



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    #8
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,747 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403181#Comment_122403181

    The point in only carrying those eliminated is those who made it through have already got representation.

    Did wonder whether you were thinking along the lines of Condorcet voting.



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    #9
    rock22
    Registered Users Posts: 1,617 ✭✭✭rock22


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403181#Comment_122403181

    That would surely change the quota for each count.



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    #10
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,949 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403181#Comment_122403181

    If your first preference nearly gets elected on first count but doesn't, that vote is now gone?



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    #11
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402728#Comment_122402728

    Well, to follow the logic used in the Senate count for a count like a GE or Euro one could not be done without a computer counting system. See post #3.



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    #12
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,506 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122402728#Comment_122402728

    The count in Ireland is a complete farce. computerised counting should 100% be a thing, instead of waiting days and days for a result it could all be done on the day or the next, like the recent UK elections as a singular example, or any number of others.

    I'm not particularly here or there on electronic voting over paper, but elec counting over manual, absolutely. Especially in pr-stv, counting and allocating everything fairly instead of the current system where:

    "The first count is normally the only time that all of a candidate’s second preference votes are counted"

    Electronic counting would easily enable 2nd and subsequent counts to fully distribute the preference correctly, which is not currently the case and it becomes entirely dependent on when your vote was counted as to whether its re-used correctly or just binned/discounted and your vote is wasted through no fault of your own.

    but mainly the completely ridiculous amount of time taken to manually count.



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    #13
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,747 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122406822#Comment_122406822

    Interesting to know why it is still done manually. Only technical reason I can think of is the inputting process but handwriting recognition has come a long way even in the last few years.

    I have my suspicions…..



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    #14
    Glaceon
    Registered Users Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭Glaceon


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122406959#Comment_122406959

    I'd imagine that our previous shambles with e-voting machines has left a sour taste.



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    #15
    Lewis_Benson
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    Build new e voting infrastructure, simple answer.



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    #16
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,949 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122406959#Comment_122406959

    I reckon the key thing is any change to the current system is fixing a problem that doesn't exist.

    Allowing the count to run for a few days isn't a problem, if anything it allows the results to be digested over time.



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    #17
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,994 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122407059#Comment_122407059

    Simple answer to what question?



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    #18
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,994 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    No. It stays with that candidate, while they hope to pick up transfers from other eliminated candidates. Eventually, if they are the lowest candidate, they may get eliminated and may transfer to your next preference vote that has not previously been elected or eliminated.



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    #19
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,994 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404540#Comment_122404540

    No. It stays with that candidate, while they hope to pick up transfers from other eliminated candidates. Eventually, if they are the lowest candidate, they may get eliminated and may transfer to your next preference vote that has not previously been elected or eliminated



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    #20
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The system we use is multi seat single transferable vote.

    What that means is that in a 4 seater, the quota is 20% and at least 20% (one quota's worth of votes) are discarded (on average) of each vote.

    If computerised counting is used, less of the votes are wasted, because the transfers are more precisely accounted for because surpluses are treated precisely, and not just last in, first out.

    Currently an attempt is made to mix the votes before counting to randomise the votes, but how is that done with ballots measured in meters long?

    However, would it make much difference to the result? Certainly, when the result is down to low figures, but mostly not, I would think.



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    #21
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,209 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122407059#Comment_122407059

    No it isn't. As they learned 20 years ago the devil is in the detail.

    The very concept of E-voting is political kryptonite in this country. No party will touch that for another 20 years at least.



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    #22
    Lewis_Benson
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122409863#Comment_122409863

    They were badly implemented.

    They could be very well implemented now, no need for all the manual counting and recounting.

    Elections decided in one day.

    Time this country's government came into the 21st century.



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    #23
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,928 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    I think I said at the time of the eVoting farce, if we can have a Lotto that gets written on paper and scanned by a machine, why can't we do it for voting? Then there's still a paper trail for recounts if required, but if the system is proven to be accurate to a certain low percentage, then recounts would be vary rarely requested.



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    #24
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,612 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403181#Comment_122403181

    Because then one party will probably get all the seats in a given constituency.



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    #25
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,949 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410192#Comment_122410192

    How can you ensure the secrecy of the ballot? How can you ensure that the system is liable to hacking or tampering?

    And again, what problems are we solving with e-voting?



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    #26
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,994 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410179#Comment_122410179

    What problem would 'elections decided in one day' solve?

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410192#Comment_122410192

    Because the integrity of the Lotto system doesn't depend on your vote being anonymous and secret.

    The integrity of the voting system DOES depend on your vote being secret.

    If you can prove your vote, you can sell your vote. If you can prove your vote, you can be put under duress to vote.

    There are good reasons why we vote in private booths. If you don't understand the current system, you're not in a good position to design a new system.



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    #27
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,994 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    What do you mean by votes discarded, and where did you get the 20% figure from?



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    #28
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,506 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122407143#Comment_122407143

    Not only does it take needlessly long, its costs a fortune to pay all those people, electronic counting would save a ton of expense.



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    #29
    Cookie_Monster
    Registered Users Posts: 24,506 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410393#Comment_122410393

    for 3rd and subsequent counts the entire ballot is not recounted for next preference, only a portion of it. So depending on where your vote is in the count the next preference could be used or it could be discarded.



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    #30
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410393#Comment_122410393

    Let me try to explain, as I did not make it clear.

    In a four seat constituency, the votes cast are divided by 5 to determine the quota. That means 20% of the votes cast do not find a winner.

    Now under a manual count, at least 20% of the vote does not rest with an elected candidate. However, with a computer count, it is possible to divide EVERY vote counted so that only that proportion required to elect a candidate is used, the rest continues as a small proportion until no more valid preferences remain for that vote, and the remaining proportion is discarded.

    So to in my example in post # 3, candidate A is elected on count 1 with 2 quotas, each vote for A is divided by 2, and all the votes for A continue as 0.5 votes to the next preference, and so on. When the next preference of a voter is for a candidate already elected or eliminated, that preference is ignored and the vote or fraction of a vote to the next preference. Eventually, all preferences will either end with no more preference expressed, or the preferences are for candidates either elected or eliminated. In the ultimate implementation, votes for already elected would be adjusted and the count run again to take account of this - however that would not be realistic except in very, very close runs.

    In that example, a vote with a single preference would only count for 50% of a vote, and the remaining fraction is discarded. It would be important to continue preference as far as the voter has an actual preference either for or against candidates.

    I suspect that most voters have little reason to choose one candidate over another once they are past 5 or 6 choices but certainly as they go further down the card.



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    #31
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,994 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122410405#Comment_122410405

    Last time we tried that, the electronic system took more human resources to run than the paper system. Throwing tech at a 'once every few years' process may not produce savings.



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