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USA 2024 presidential election

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,762 ✭✭✭squonk


    I can’t see how Biden can stay in. The jokes were always there that he was old and doddery but he got by and looked mostly competent. Things seem to have gone very downhill lately though. I’d sooner see him re-elected if the choice was him or Trump but I honestly couldn’t say he’ll be in a state to do the job by the end of next year let along up til 28. That’s the huge problem. He just doesn’t inspire confidence. I can’t believe the democrats let it get this far. Mind you he seemed fairly well last year during his visit here. Something has happened in the meantime though.

    Post edited by squonk on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,776 ✭✭✭eire4


    They for sure thankfully missed an opportunity with the pick of the Vance who is just another authoritarian, misogynistic, homophobic bigot so he really does not bring them anything and they would have won Ohio without or without Vance and his hate filled agenda.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,165 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Yeah I think the logistics of Rubio was to messy with both been from Florida, Burgum was meh but passable and supposedly Youngkin the Virginia governor was considered, I think if Trump had picked him that would have been massive .

    Vance doesn't bring any new voters,,,and not as if Ohio was a concern for the Republicans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Another Senator likely to lose his seat in November calls on Biden to not run



  • Registered Users Posts: 498 ✭✭Pinkman


    Looking at the swing states, if Trump wins Georgia, Nevada and Arizona and Dems win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin then the Dems win the election. So if it all comes down to the rust belt, then surely the best choice strategically is pairing the Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro together as the ticket? That will make it significantly more likely to win those two states and then all they need is Wisconsin.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,916 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Yes, but it's not that simple. Who are they, what will they do other than not be CFTrump and not be Biden? Whitmer was good during Covid and gained fame due to the yahoos that threatened to kidnap her. Shapiro will bring out the antisemites. So, I dunno, we'd need a crash introduction to both of them. Which one is POTUS? Whitmer?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,776 ✭✭✭eire4


    Or they go with Harris as the nominee and pick one of those 2 as the VP pick to try and bring in a key battle ground state.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,105 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    If Harris is selected she has to pick a VP from the biggest swing state it would be her only chance of causing an upset .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,263 ✭✭✭alan partridge aha


    Trump needs a bit of decorum, if he can do that he has a huge chance hopefully



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,681 ✭✭✭Field east


    has he not already started by saying that he ‘ has taken a bullet for democracy’ . I do’nt know the connection but I’m sure Donald will elaborate on it later when he gets the time!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    Looks like decency & democracy will be safe so!



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Unreal.

    This is gonna be interesting



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,217 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    The only option, though I wasn't sure it'd happen. Don't think Harris is the right choice though. A race between 2-3 candidates could actually give the democratic voters some actual energy though.

    Who other than Harris would run? Mark Kelly?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    My money is on Harris/Kelly ticket now.

    Well done to Biden, took his time, but he reached the right decision. Hopefully the party can unite behind Kamala, and take the fight to Trump now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Had to happen. Glad Biden didn't drag it out any longer.

    It appears like the party is uniting behind Harris.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,263 ✭✭✭alan partridge aha


    Trump will be beaten now, they had to shift Biden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,810 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Will Biden's hand be freeer now that he is not running for reelection?

    Will he be an asset to whoever is actually running because he can now concentrate on what he is good at? Actually being President .

    Can they gun down the oafish turd with something like a two shoe shuffle?(no allusion to the recent events intended)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,368 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    It’ll be interesting to see how(or if) the trump campaign can pivot and have a good strategy on how to get a message about their democratic opponent that doesn’t involve their age. I still don’t know why trump picked Vance as his VP pick. Vance is not someone who will appeal to independent voters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Harris 1/6 to be the nominee on Betfair Exchange. Gavan Newsom is a distant second place at 25/1

    Harris is 9/4 to be elected President. Trump is 5/8.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,165 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    A convention would have been fun but its not the west wing so yeah best to wrap it up asap.

    You will see a lot of definite predictions about who will win in November now and most of it will be wish casting, Trump starts as fav but Biden stepping down has given the Dems a boost when it comes to enthusiasm and fund raising.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Speaking of the West Wing. I see that Aaron Sorkin wrote an opinion piece calling on the Democrats to nominate…….Mitt Romney!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I see a lot of people recycling "Biden's Age" attacks that the Republicans have been using right back at them with glee



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Gavin Newsom, the Clintons and the Congressional Black Caucus have all backed Harris. No word yet from Whitmer, Pelosi or Obama.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    Whitmer has said she won't run and has offered support to Harris.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Whilst those posts are fairly disingenuous , Biden dropping out does mean that they can go hard on Trumps perceived "issues" without the fear of backfire.

    I expect a significant ramp up on the messaging around Trumps gaffs etc.

    I saw one article talking about the use of "Prosecutor vs. Felon" as an angle as well.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,418 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    On the flipside, where to for the GOP? I'm sure the brain trust has been brainstorming potential strategies given they probably knew Biden was dropping out at the same time as the Democrats. So assuming it's Harris as the new candidate, where and how do you attack her? We know subtly and nuance won't be at play here but how do you attack a "liberal" Black Woman without being transparently prejudicial?

    They'll find something, there's no doubt about that, but unlike Clinton Harris' copybook is cleaner and Trump mouthing off about her might be a much bigger boo-boo than it ever was with Lock Her Up etc.

    Same question to the Democrats: do we have a sense of the initial reaction to Biden stepping down? 'cos even if after doing so, if Liberal America still finds someting to carp about, you'd worry for the left's collective sanity in that country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Judging by right-wing accounts on twitter a lot of them seem to be sharing clips of her laughing. I think the intention is to depict her as unserious or manic but it has a lot of people scratching their heads

    I'm sure they'll try lots of different angles until something sticks.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Huh: I guess if in doubt, misogyny? Running a country is serious stuff for serious men?

    Which, given IIRC nearly 50% of White Women voted Trump in 2016, may yet work TBH. It is the backbone of the conservative movement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,916 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    One of many creepy things about CFTrump, is that he never laughs. He makes fun of others but only ever gets that sh1t-eating grin on his face when he thinks he's been clever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yes he is one of those people who doesn't seem to have a sense of humour. His idea of humour is being cruel about someone else. On the other hand he is sometimes unintentionally funny.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Why stop at Trump? There's a pretty solid argument IMO that humour trends Left anyway, because it often laughs at ourselves as a release value, or at social "betters" as a way to diminish their status. Trump lives in apartments festooned with gold plating, while the MAGA & conservative movement, by definition, refuses any kind of social progression or self-interrogation. All the right can do is laugh downward and other people deemed lesser - which in Trump's case is everyone so only ever laughs out of cruelty.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Sometime ago, he referred to Hannibal Lector as a real person - clearly believing it himself. In his acceptance speech, he again referred to the late great Hannibal Lector as someone who would love to have you for dinner - and got a laugh from a joke well rehearsed. This defuses the former gaffe. Against Biden, that was OK.

    However, he has loads of examples of lies and gaffes that can be unearthed and used against him. Most emphasise his detachment from reality and the truth. Recommending cures for Covid - like drinking bleach - and apparently meaning it. He is dangerous. He personifies that his morality is that of an alley cat, and he can be destroyed for moderate voters.

    Add to that, he is 78 years old - and so is older the Biden was 4 years ago. If elected, he will be the oldest President on inauguration day. That cannot be denied. Plus, he is visibly beginning to show signs of senility that Biden is showing currently. Bill Clinton is the same age and was elected President 28 years ago - and currently looks all of his 78 years. Dems just need to keep pointing out that it is his condition in four years time - not now - that matters.

    Three word slogans will not cut it this time.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Add to that, he is 78 years old - and so is older the Biden was 4 years ago. If elected, he will be the oldest President on inauguration day. That cannot be denied. Plus, he is visibly beginning to show signs of senility that Biden is showing currently. Bill Clinton is the same age and was elected President 28 years ago - and currently looks all of his 78 years. Dems just need to keep pointing out that it is his condition in four years time - not now - that matters.

    You have to imagine all those Democrat proxies & viral mouth-pieces are about to really ramp up this narrative; 'cos with the best will in the world they likely stayed their hand precisely because of Biden's own age & the GOP's focus on that as a point of criticism. The gloves can now come off, and hypocritical or not I'd be surprised if we don't see a sudden surge in Trump is too old narratives. Coupled with freeze-frames of him looking tired, or further emphasis on his many gaffs.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    It's the whole "Punching up and not down" thing.

    Right wingers punch down - They mock those less fortunate than themselves , make fun of them etc. which simply isn't funny , it's just cruel.

    Punching Up - Railing against the elite , the establishment etc. tends to be far more effective comedically speaking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I believe we are now on the final stage from that tweet 19 days ago



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    For sure. Art (and thus, comedy) requires us to introspect, and look or laugh at our foibles or failings. So through that interrogation we grow, and learn empathy or to change our perspectives. And the one thing I notice about American Conservatives, they are pathologically incapable of either self-examination or awareness. Indeed to even call them "conservative" is in some respects being charitable, 'cos in of itself a desire for the status quo is not automatically a terrible idea - but rather, MAGA et al instead desire a regression towards a social construct to something predating the invention of the airplane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,586 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    It'll be interesting to see how Harris performs now as the candidate, what if any improvement she's made since 2019. I don't think she would have won an open primary, at least based off her previous efforts. Tulsi Gabbard destroyed her bid in about 2mins the last time out, and I imagine that's been on her campaigns mind. She will need proxies to do a lot of heavy lifting for her.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,165 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    They will just tie Biden to her.

    Biden was not a popular president and she was obviously a key part in that administration.

    She was also given the border something which is clearly something the Dems are losing on.

    Their is other stuff conservatives care about such as her stance on fracking and the filibuster.

    People may approve of those positions but the idea that the GOP have no plan for Harris is just MSNBC silliness.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,165 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    She is a word salad machine at times for sure, I think they may try and lean into it though which in 2024 is probably the way rather than ignore it. Clearly will help when her opponent rambles incoherently all the time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,586 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    She needs to demonstrate a similar command of foreign policy issues that Biden has, even now. Show that she is a heavyweight politician. Clear messaging regarding the economy and the difficulties people are still facing. Side with people over business and call out the profiteering. The recent pledge to cap rent increases is great. Federally legalize marijuana. Continue tackling student loans debt. Easy winners for her.

    I wish the Democrats would actually run on a platform of progressive ideals. Healthcare, the environment, education. Give folks something to be hopeful about.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,975 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    A lot of Harris' current image is still drawn from peoples' impressions of her during the 2020 campaign. It was the height of anti-law enforcement sentiment in the US, and there was a conscious effort from both Harris and the Democrats in general to downplay her track record as DA in San Francisco and as AG for California.

    Her achievements in both offices were significant, and I'd imagine that they'll lean into them a lot more this time around. Efforts to portray her as a lightweight can be knocked back significantly by pointing to her decade and a half running significant public offices before she was elected as a Senator.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,270 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    There's lots to focus on for the Dems with Kamala v Trump:

    Young v "Oldest ever confirmed candidate"

    Prosecutor of Sex Pests v Known Rapist

    Part of an Administration that created jobs and has a roaring economy versus a man whose businesses have gone bankrupt half a dozen times and who destroyed the economy during his "failed term".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,586 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    At 4:00 min, Gabbard goes after Harris's record pretty savagely. Her history as a DA and AG in California is fairly controversial, and a definite weak point for her.

    This article from 2020 goes into some detail on it.

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/23/18184192/kamala-harris-president-campaign-criminal-justice-record

    A close examination of Harris’s record shows it’s filled with contradictions. She pushed for programs that
    helped people find jobs instead of putting them in prison, but also
    fought to keep people in prison even after they were proved innocent.
    She refused to pursue the death penalty against a man who killed a
    police officer, but also defended California’s death penalty system in
    court. She implemented training programs to address police officers’
    racial biases, but also resisted calls to get her office to investigate
    certain police shootings.

    She brought in some progressive reform policies, but her office also pursued some frankly vindictive seeming efforts to keep innocent people incarcerated. It's a very mixed bag.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,975 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    California elected her as a Senator directly after her decade and a half as DA and then AG.
    Her record is only really controversial with the very left wing within the US who’s natural position is to opposed most elements of law enforcement. It could be an issue for her if she had to fight through the Democratic Primaries and needed to win over the Sanders block - but now it’s the full American electorate she needs to be concerned about.

    Being able to sell a strong law and order position is a major plus when it comes to winning middle America



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Ultimately though will it really matter? If it's gonna be Harris it'll be with the understanding she is gonna be the continuity candidate. I'm gonna presume the narrative will be Harris is gonna pursue all the promises and proposals set by Biden - and, perhaps most crucially, will maybe retain the existing personnel running the current show.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,586 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    It could matter in terms of turnout, especially in black communities. Republicans have been making in roads among them, the anti LGBT message finds purchase with a lot of church going folks, and they'd obviously be sensitive to issues around policing and the criminal system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Another significant endorsement



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    At this stage, I don't see what else the Democrats could do, if Biden was that untenable as a president. The replacement was gonna either be a continuity candidate or some wild swing towards a brand new face; Biden's age was the explicit problem that was apparently inescapable after the first debate ... so stood to reason the former was chosen as the safest bet. The "voters" and Democratic zeitgeist have got their wish - at this late stage this was never gonna be a silver bullet and specific demographics can't really figure.



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