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Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

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    #542
    extra-ordinary_
    Registered Users Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    Donny knows he's in deep deep doo doo. Just look at the two candidates, there really is no contest - unless you're a diehard maga that is. Will be interesting to see what moves he'll make as he realises it's slipping away. Hoping to rig the count centres I'd imagine.



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    #543
    Fathom
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Regional Midlands Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators, Regional North Mods, Regional West Moderators, Regional South East Moderators, Regional North East Moderators, Regional North West Moderators, Regional South Moderators Posts: 9,166 CMod ✭✭✭✭Fathom


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414419#Comment_122414419

    There may be some merit in waiting for two weeks before a poll is initiated, which may be conducted for a few days after.

    Then again, such opinion polls are cross sectional giving one moment in time, and not longitudinal over a prolonged period of time. So many variables can occur overtime that can affect the results that vary from one moment in time.

    Tracking polls may be a solution, provided that they use identical methods and sampling techniques. But what I’ve seen too often are the averaging of polls that have different methods and sampling techniques like found in Real Clear Politics, this sandwich average may taste good but result in GIGO.

    538 uses weighted algorithms which may solve some of the poll averaging problems, but they still use a suspect qualitative ranking of poll sources that’s subjective and not objective.



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    #544
    Babyreignbow
    Registered Users Posts: 509 ✭✭✭Babyreignbow


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414431#Comment_122414431

    Looks like Elon is doing his best to bea d;ck anyway

    https://newrepublic.com/post/184097/trump-elon-musk-causing-kamala-harris-problems

    https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-going-all-in-recruit-billionaire-peers-trump-vance-2024-7

    If a thousand suns were to rise
    and stand in the noon sky, blazing,
    such brilliance would be like the fierce
    brilliance of that mighty Self.”



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    #545
    Fathom
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Regional Midlands Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators, Regional North Mods, Regional West Moderators, Regional South East Moderators, Regional North East Moderators, Regional North West Moderators, Regional South Moderators Posts: 9,166 CMod ✭✭✭✭Fathom


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414429#Comment_122414429

    A tracking poll may show some variations overtime between Harris and Trump. Unfortunately, there being a little over 100 days before the 5 November 2024 election is terribly short from a research methods standpoint, so the tracking may not be long enough to establish reliable and valid results.



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    #546
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,849 ✭✭✭✭briany


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414431#Comment_122414431

    Don't underestimate the ignorance and apathy of middle ground American voters. It's probably almost too well-known how odious Trump is, and the result is that that a lot of people must be numb to it.

    In his last term, Trump's approval ratings were remarkably low, yet in the 2020 presidential election, Trump received the most votes of any Republican candidate in history. He would have won that election, only that Joe Biden received the most votes of any candidate in history. Now, I suspect that a large proportion of Biden votes were more anti-Trump, but a win is a win. It raises some interesting questions, however.

    A) How did Trump's low approval ratings translate into 74 million votes?

    B) If these people were prepared to vote for him even while he made a total hames of the pandemic, will they show up again?

    C) Will the anti-Trump vote be as strong? Will there be action or apathy?



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    #547
    Fathom
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Regional Midlands Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators, Regional North Mods, Regional West Moderators, Regional South East Moderators, Regional North East Moderators, Regional North West Moderators, Regional South Moderators Posts: 9,166 CMod ✭✭✭✭Fathom


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414456#Comment_122414456

    Some journalist suggested that this presidential race was unlike any other in American history, which I think was an elaboration of the obvious. The track meet analogy they used was useful. Due to the lack of time between now and 5 November it was a sprint for Harris rather than the typical marathon experienced by Trump. Where Trump had to exhibit endurance, Harris has to exhibit speed; a very different contest between opponents.

    For me, observing from my anecdotal armchair, it appears that while Trump ambled by Biden about 3 or more weeks ago, Biden relayed the torch to Harris Sunday, while standing in her blocks, whereupon she exploded into a sprint closing on Trump. If she doesn’t pace herself at the right speed she could blow out, or trips and falls on her face. If she sprints true she could pass Trump and win the race.

    2 pennies for the sprinting rabbit passing the ambling tortoise.

    Post edited by Fathom on


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    #548
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 83,136 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Speaking of sprints,

    She hasn’t even been the head of the ticket for 36 hours and she’s already gone out and re-secured more than enough delegates to win the nomination. 2471 of 3953 iirc possible delegates.

    Talk about hitting the ground running. MAGA was hoping for a chaotic Democratic convention and now they won’t get it.

    https://www.mediaite.com/politics/breaking-kamala-harris-secures-enough-delegates-to-be-democratic-nominee/



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    #549
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 82,650 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    A debate between the two of them needed so bad.



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    #550
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,627 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122413945#Comment_122413945
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122413945#Comment_122413945

    She's 59. Details matter. 😘



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    #551
    rogber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭rogber


    If Harris wins it will send a shiver through old white men throughout the world that their time is finally up



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    #552
    rogber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭rogber


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414431#Comment_122414431

    As I said elsewhere, only idiots or bigots would vote for Trump knowing what we know. Even the USA surely has more sane people than idiots and bigots? We'll find out



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    #553
    rogber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭rogber


    Now only one confused old white man left in the race:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/22/election-trump-harris



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    #554
    Oscar_Madison
    Registered Users Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414454#Comment_122414454

    Oh totally - there’s already a survey process in place for the swing states specifically as that’s where the litmus test will be most seen - given Trumps long lead in period, any closing of the gap indicated by these polls will be very shaky data but at the very least what we’ll be looking for is that the gap is actually closing even in this point in time survey.

    Harris is going to be one tired woman along with her VP by the end of this - she’s a lot of work to do as has her party and volunteers - it’s a big challenge but not insurmountable as long as she doesn’t make too many gaffs



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    #555
    Penn
    Registered Users Posts: 33,712 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Trump fans already in such a tizzy about Harris running that they're forgetting to switch to their burner accounts when they pretend to be black people who are voting for Trump

    Untitled Image



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    #556
    thatsdaft
    Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭thatsdaft


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414699#Comment_122414699

    This elder abuse has to stop, someone please explain to demented Trump that Biden is gone

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-looks-older-and-more-deranged/679186/



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    #557
    Oscar_Madison
    Registered Users Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414677#Comment_122414677

    You could equally wonder, why Harris now is not a total shoe-in for President - not only do you have a reason not to vote for this man as you’ve pointed out, women’s rights and the treatment of ethnic minorities are two very key issues that Harris and her party are far more willing to champion than the Republicans - but she’s not a shoe in -it will be a “race”- polls will be close- there’s no certainty at this time.
    I dunno- maybe “it’s the economy stupid” is always on the mind of the American voter and it’s always the number 1 issue - all other issues are secondary no matter what us outsiders think - and as I type this, while yes, Harris will champion women’s rights and what not- but she can’t neglect the economy- primarily she has to show that Americans will have more dollars in their wallets if they elect her- if she neglects that primary issue, she’ll have made a crucial error



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    #558
    LambshankRedemption
    Registered Users Posts: 6,708 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Harris is going to be one tired woman along with her VP by the end of this - she’s a lot of work to do as has her party and volunteers - it’s a big challenge but not insurmountable as long as she doesn’t make too many gaffs

    How will with Septuagenarian with the diet of a teenager feel after the end of it?

    I wonder is this scene from the movie Kingsmen based on anyone we know?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP83kn5aYxo



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    #559
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,771 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414677#Comment_122414677

    Alot of rich people who are not necessarily idiots or bigots vote for Trump. The religious vote for him because they rationalise that the lord works in mysterious ways- no more so than through Donald. This is how they reconcile embracing someone who they know is not one of them



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    #560
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 30,276 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414802#Comment_122414802

    That's a form of stupidity right there.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #561
    Oscar_Madison
    Registered Users Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414783#Comment_122414783

    My key point was for her not to be complacent - yes she has a lot going for her even at this very early stage of the race, but it will be won through very hard work, lots of travel, lots of meeting people - Trump has done a lot of this ground work - she’s a lot of catching up to do



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    #562
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,771 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414814#Comment_122414814

    It's remarkable how Donald manages to appeal to so many disparate groups. The point is they are not all stupid, some of them know very well who and what he is.



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    #563
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 30,276 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414826#Comment_122414826

    I don't think there's much risk of that at the moment, given where the polls are at, and the crucial 'swing state' votes.

    I think risk of complacency \ voters staying home would be if the polls do switch significantly in her favour and in November it is a big lead. Probably best thing for Dems would be going to polling day with a very narrow lead.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #564
    LambshankRedemption
    Registered Users Posts: 6,708 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414826#Comment_122414826

    If you follow her coverage she has very much hit the ground running. She has already secured backing from enough delegates to become the nominee at the DNC. She was in Delaware yesterday as the first stop in her campaign roadtrip.



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    #565
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users Posts: 20,770 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414667#Comment_122414667

    The black men & women of America dislike more than the white men



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    #566
    Economics101
    Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭Economics101


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414667#Comment_122414667

    As an old white guy, part of me resents, and the other part laughs at that remark.

    My time would really be up if the Orange Dotard were to have such an impact on the lives ofthose who are younger than me.



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    #567
    rogber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭rogber


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414777#Comment_122414777

    Yes I think you hit the nail on the head, economy is for many voters the number one issue: "are me and my family and a few close friends doing well? Yes? Then don't care about what happens beyond our circle". They'll vote for whoever they think serves that goal best.

    Oh, and migration. Rightly or wrongly, many people want strict limits on migration and it's a vote winner for the Republicans.

    Also, I think for most of us outside the US our biggest concern about Trump relates to foreign policy issues: Ukraine, Middle East, general world peace, environmental issues. So many Americans don't care about any of this.

    So for all these reasons Trump still has a good chance of winning



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    #568
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414883#Comment_122414883

    The planned republican tax breaks for the Uber wealthy will cost the average family $2600.

    Source:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/project-2025-would-overhaul-us-taxes-heres-the-impact-for-you/ar-BB1pNl38

    Trump ordered the republicans to quash the bipartisan border protection bill that the border agents approved of, lest it give Biden "a win".



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    #569
    Shoog
    Registered Users Posts: 5,207 ✭✭✭Shoog


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414883#Comment_122414883

    I don't think the economy is as good a vote winner for Trump as you might imagine. Tax brakes consistently favour those who need them least so most people see no benefits. Add to this the fact that past Covid the economy has sprung back remarkably and most people are better off - and inflation has come down off its hump. All on Bidens watch.



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    #570
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,721 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414667#Comment_122414667

    Do you think it will make them realise their individual chances of becoming President of the US aren't actually that great …. especially the non-US citizens among them? They will never add that title to their list of life achievements. 'twill be shattering for them.

    Shout out though to the Moderator @Fathom a few posts up with more titles than IDI Amin



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    #571
    thatsdaft
    Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭thatsdaft


    The main issues according to ITV news report from yesterday in order of decreasing importance

    • economy
    • border
    • abortion
    • inflation
    • foreign affairs

    If she gets a good VP they can appear as competent on all these issues while senile Trump keeps raging about Biden and not issues that people care

    Biden should now full on troll Trump every day



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