General Irish politics discussion thread

Loafing Oaf · 20-07-2024 1:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403233#Comment_122403233

McEntee is also safe as houses now that ME has gained a seat. The kind of controversies she has endured rarely cut through at constituency level anyway. SF would have been fancied to take the fourth seat but with them slumping it might go to someone out of leftfield (or rightfield). Can't see it being Keogan though…

blanch152 · 20-07-2024 4:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404049#Comment_122404049

Aontu could take O'Gorman's seat, they got three councillors in Dublin West in the locals.

5 seats in Dublin West. Leo stepping down.

Donnelly (SF), Chambers (FF), Currie (FG), with the last two seats between Walsh (Labour), Coppinger (Ind?), Aontu (don't think they have selected yet), O'Gorman (Greens) and possibly a second FF or SF candidate.

As for McEntee, you need 25% first preferences to get elected in a three-seater. In the locals, FG got 22% in Ashbourne LED, 31% in Kells LED, 27.4% in Laytown/Bettystown, 22.1% in Ratoath. Not sure which of those in Meath East, but should be enough, so long as she is the only candidate.

Edit: Meath East has gone to a four-seater, so hard to see McEntee losing out, they may run a sweeper candidate.

Agree about Harris.

pureza · 21-07-2024 2:32pm

Fine Gael are in a bit of a quandry in Wicklow in that one of their potential 3 candidates sweeps up a lot of votes in the south of the county but lives in the 4 seater,losing voters to the new wicklow wexford constituency

Of the 5 incumbents there,the green is toast I'd say,Brady and Harris will be top of the poll

The new Wicklow wexford 3 seater will be 1 FF,1 FG and either 1 SF or one independent ,being Pier Leonard if she stands ?

Brussels Sprout · 22-07-2024 12:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122407300#Comment_122407300

Given SF's reversal in fortunes lately I wouldn't think that they'll be topping many polls. They seems to have lost large sections of their former base. They appear to have recognised this fact in a recent review where they acknowledged that their stance on immigration was at odds with many of their former voters.

The thing is, if they change their stance in immigration they may lose some of the younger middle class vote that they've picked up more recently. 2020 seemed to be the sweet spot where they managed to retain both groups. From here on in they may need to choose between one or the other.

blanch152 · 22-07-2024 3:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122411568#Comment_122411568

To be fair to Brady, he has a strong personal support in Bray. Still living in the council house despite being on over 100k a year.

Field east · 23-07-2024 9:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401338#Comment_122401338

it’s a wonder that independant programme makers such as Sin-a- Wil have not done a programme on how exactly the counting system works and explaining the specific details as it progresses through the counting system used. The ‘ raw material’ for such a programme is handed to the prog maker on a plate in that it could use any actual constituency to make it . Or , to keep it simple it could start off with smaller /round/fictitious number of votes

Sam Russell · 23-07-2024 9:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122414801#Comment_122414801

The news cycle of an election carries timed contributions from various party candidates leading up to the day of voting. Each party must get equal time - I do not understand whether small parties get the same amount of time as big parties or if it just portioned out.

This ends the day before election day when there is a moratorium for voters to reflect and decide.

On election day, the news media concentrate on turnout.

The next day, the count begins with the boxes being opened, and breathless reports start as glances of the ballots as they are poured out onto the counting table are transformed into tallies. These morph into early predictions from tally experts who combine figures to consolidate trends. These come with a health warning.

Then as the day progresses, early predictions turn into early results. Eventually, all the results are in.

And we have a winner - lots of them - but do we have a Gov?

Well that is the fun part.

pureza · 23-07-2024 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122412414#Comment_122412414

He was popular enough in the south of the county and a decent skin when you meet him,their vote though down here was do ya know terrible in the CoCo's compared to expectations,1 councillor ellected in the Wicklow part of the new WicWex constuency and last ,without reaching the quota

Brussels Sprout · 23-07-2024 12:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122411568#Comment_122411568

WWN picking up on SF's dilemma on immigration:

MARY LOU MCDONALD has reassured voters that have gravitated to Sinn Féin in recent years that any attempts to coax intolerant anti-immigration voters with a new ‘immigration policy’ will be done in a very progressive manner.
“It’ll be inclusive, very LGBTQ forward thinking type stuff if and when we scapegoat immigrants at all, all relevant rejections letters will have rainbow flags and the correct pronouns,” said McDonald remaining coy on if Sinn Féin will fully embrace courting racists in earnest now they’ve dropped a few points in the polls.
“We’d continue to condemns scenes like we’ve witnessed in Coolock in the strongest terms, while dropping in an old ‘no open borders’ and ‘Ukrainians are the good refugees but’ into the conversation here and there,” added McDonald, outlining the careful language that will serve as a nod and a wink to those with strong anti-immigrant views.

source

Brussels Sprout · 23-07-2024 4:49pm

OK here are some real quotes from MLM:

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said that more international protection centres should be located in better off areas under its new immigration policy.
The party is calling for a local audit of resources to be carried out before new locations are chosen.
This would examine criteria including GP lists and school places, proximity to transport and existing levels of disadvantage.
"Some areas have better access to services, to infrastructure, they are better off. It is our belief that it is a fairer ask that these centres be located in these communities," Ms McDonald said.

source

This is actually good politics. It's the kind of thing that nobody can argue with publicly.

The open secret to why they don't do this is that there would be too much local resistance, not in the streets, but in the courts. If they tried to pull a Crown Paints in Foxrock there would be a high court injunction logged before you could say "Resident's association" putting a stop to the work and likely jamming it up for months. Up until now it's just been easier to go with softer targets. After Coolock though all bets are off.

beggars_bush · 23-07-2024 5:28pm

The issue is that generally there are very few vacant sites or available land in more 'affluent' areas

blackwhite · 23-07-2024 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122416913#Comment_122416913

You mean like the one they opened in Ballsbridge?

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2024/01/04/mixed-reaction-in-ballsbridge-as-locals-give-cautious-welcome-to-asylum-seeker-centre/

As the above poster noted - the issue is more down to where there are available vacant buildings that can converted. They tend to be in less well-off areas, as vacant sites in well-off areas tend to be snapped up by property developers.

In Sligo they converted the old Cregg House care centre to refugee accommodation. That's in Rosses Point, the wealthiest part of Sligo - with Cregg House within a few hundred metres of Shane Filan's mansion.

In the news today, Dundrum House Hotel in Tipperary - a golf resort - taken over as refugee accommodation.

It's more a case of desparation in trying to find anywhere that they can lodge and feed people, as opposed to targetting certain areas.

Water John · 24-07-2024 4:10pm

Good to see Barry Andrews elected Chair of the European Parliament Development Committee. He will be grest in that role and hope he makes a difference to many peoples lives:

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0723/1461396-eu-committees/

blanch152 · 24-07-2024 4:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122416913#Comment_122416913

Has anyone been able to find out where exactly MLMD was talking about? Are there any examples?

Brussels Sprout · 24-07-2024 4:49pm

Big surprise at the FG selection convention for Cork-South Central last night. Both Jerry Buttimer & John Mullins lost out. They instead picked a councilor from the city and county councils (male & female).

I don't know the details of the selection but I wonder did the new higher 40% gender quota come into play in ensuring that there would be at least one woman on the ticket.

blackwhite · 24-07-2024 4:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421299#Comment_122421299

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-41442595.html

Seems that they were mandated to select one candidate from Carrigaline, and one from the rest of the constituency, meaning that the Councillor from Carrigaline was automatically selected as there was no other candidate from that LEA put forward.

Brussels Sprout · 24-07-2024 5:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421337#Comment_122421337

Hmmm what an oddly specific rule that just so happened to make the only female candidate a certainty to be elected! She only got elected as a councilor 6 weeks ago as well.

I'd imagine we're going to see lots of these sorts of shenanigans played out across the country over the next few weeks and months.

blanch152 · 24-07-2024 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421526#Comment_122421526

The 40% quota will cause issues. Imagine a party with a good chance of two seats selecting two men locally and then having a third woman added by party central to make up the national quota then losing one of the two seats by managing the vote badly.

Brussels Sprout · 24-07-2024 5:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421534#Comment_122421534

Yes. The fear of that happening in some constituencies will make the party dictate that they only have two candidates but that a woman needs to be one of the two picked. This happened quite a bit at the last election and that was only when there was a 30% bar.

As it happens I'm actually in favour of gender quotas. I think in the long run they are a good thing. In the short-term they are going to cause a lot of resentment though.

corkie · 24-07-2024 5:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421132#Comment_122421132

CLIP • 5 MINS • 24 JUL • MORNING IRELAND

Barry Andrews, Fianna Fáil MEP, discusses his election as Chair of the European Parliament's Development Committee and the challenges facing the EU's overseas aid programmes. ~~ Link

He doesn't think VDL will be vindictive in Commisioner roles! Affecting Michael McGrath?

Loafing Oaf · 24-07-2024 5:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421337#Comment_122421337

It seems inevitable that there's going to be some overriding the wishes of local party organisations if the gender quota thing is to be achieved but this

Ms Carroll MacNeill read a party directive decreeing that two candidates be chosen, and that one had to be from the Carrigaline area.

seems a weirdly passive-aggressive way to go about it, and seems bound to cause more resentment than if party HQ had stipulated from day one that one of the candidates had to be a woman…

blackwhite · 24-07-2024 5:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421526#Comment_122421526

Seems like it was lined up to get that councillor on the ticket alright. Otherwise you’d have to imagine the local branch would have been informed in advance to allow any other candidates for Carrigaline to come forward

Water John · 24-07-2024 6:16pm

I suppose with McGrath and Coveney stepping out, it would leave a hole in that area.

Augme · 27-07-2024 11:28am

No wonder children can't get surgeries. Utter incompetence from the Government yet again.

https://www.irishtimes.com/health/2024/07/27/hse-employee-was-paid-nearly-1m-last-year-report-reveals/

Brussels Sprout · 27-07-2024 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421672#Comment_122421672

McGrath's brother will almost surely be running to take his seat.

dulpit · 27-07-2024 4:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122433722#Comment_122433722

And will canter to a seat too.

AndrewJRenko · 27-07-2024 8:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421534#Comment_122421534

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122421563#Comment_122421563

If only the parties had some kind of advance notice of this requirement some years ago, giving them the opportunity to plan for effective candidate selection.