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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 905 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,289 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Lets not forget that almost every part of a wind turbine is recyclable, vastly reducing the resource footprint of replacement turbines. Additionally much of the infrastructure will last multiple turbine generation so won't need to be replaced apart from basic servicing.

    The life cycle costs of a wind farm are largely predictable unlike a NPP which is open ended.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Oh, maybe because our laws (including company law and tax laws, torts, civil law etc. ) and civil service are based on theirs. We use most of their large construction and consultancy companies too. So it's by far the closest framework.

    They have a 70 year head start on us in commercial nuclear power plant construction, operation and waste handling.

    They have a head start on decommissioning and reprocessing.

    They have multiple pre-existing sites to choose from.

    They have an electricity market an order of magnitude larger than ours and have a plan to acquire a series of nuclear plants and so could benefit from both loss-leaders and volume discounts which would never be given to us.

    Unlike ours their defence forces need nuclear materials for weapons (including depleted uranium) and submarine reactors so nuclear power can be subsided from the defence budget.

    The UK looked everywhere before signing with EDF for Hinkley C , the list of companies that walked away or went bankrupt since the tenders started is impressive.

    Unless and until you can explain in detail how we could beat the UK on every single one of these points there's a snowball's chance in hell we could get nuclear power cheaper than the UK could.

    In the end the UK needed the French and Chinese government to provide financial guarantees. The Chinese government are not the sort of people you want to owe the smallest amount of money to if you can't pay because you will get screwed (cf. the number of military bases ports they have acquired, including one in Greece) and the UK government is in hoc to eye-watering amounts.

    Meanwhile the UK didn't buy into Rolls Royce's SMR even though they were offered at a fraction of the price of Hinkley-C and promised thousands of job , instead they continued to import 4 GW of renewables from France.

    At this point Hinkley's fixed price contact looks like it'll extend until 50 years after generation was supposed to start. Any number of solar or storage innovations will happen over that course of time.

    For example a roll of self adhesive flexible thin film solar would use a tiny fraction of the material currently used for cells (saving > 99% of silicon) and no support needed (saving 99% of aluminium and glass) Today's improvements in overlapping cells and higher voltages are already reducing the usage of silver and copper.

    IIRC for ORESS the clock starts from when generation was supposed to start, not from when it actually does.

    €86.05/MWh (2023) = £72.52 (2023) = £52.69 (2012)



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    IIRC the last time someone checked how much material from the blades of a 20 year old recycled wind farm went into landfill, it worked about the same as a weeks worth of coal ash for the same power.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,732 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I seriously doubt that given loss of carbon storage from peatland and forest, plus dramatically increased methane emissions from such damaged peatlands, not to mention issues with water quality in these areas which has been highlighted in the media here in North Mayo on a number of occasions



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,732 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    FA are recycled - most end up in landfills. They also generate a vast amount of micro plastics during their lifespan, especially in Marine Environments



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,596 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    And you have evidence that all turbines are dumped in landfill at end of life, I assume...?

    And it's funny how some people suddenly care about peatland and drainage when a windfarm is being built, when for over a century before they've been draining it and cutting out turf. I smell BS.

    I also know a couple of people who made that same argument about the bogland drying out due to a windfarm at a site in Co Cork, and a year later were complaining that rewetting of a neighbouring turf bogland would cause armageddon...

    Still, at least nobody has tried the "dead birds" excuse yet...



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,289 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Still no answer to when a NPP starts saving emissions.

    It seems that the conservative coalition in Australia is proposing to divert all energy investment into NPP mainly as a means of locking in coal generation for the next 20 years. Favors for their mates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,139 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Hornsea 3 was €10.2Bn. which at the time would have left that 37 GW for just the turbines alone €130 Bn. Prices since have risen by over 80% in recent cases. But even at 60% that 37 GW is €208 Bn. Taiwan just agreed terms with Canada`s Northland and others for their Hai Long 1 GW fixed offshore wind farm for 9 Bn.Canadian dollars (€6.02 Bn) which would leave that 37 GW offshore section on its own even more expensive at €222 Bn.

    But that is not the full story either on Hornsea where the CfD price is concerned.

    Not only could the U.K. not get a single offer for 5 GW of offshore in their 2023 AR5 auction, all of the companies that were successful and awarded CfD contracts in their previous AR4 auction reduced their committment of what they were contracted to supply, waiting for it to be re-offered where they will get a higher CfD price. Orsted for Hornsea being one such case afair.

    You are also still rattling on about Hinkley while ignoring what is happening in the real world today.

    The Hinkley CfD of £92.5/MWh in 2012 is today allowing for infalation £128/MWh (Bank of England) which is €152/MWh. Of the companies that pulled out of agreed CfD contracts two of the largest worldwide, Orsted and Equinor, did so for the Empire Wind and Sunshine Wind offshore projects in the U.S. and have now renegotiated a CfD with tax breakes included of $205 (€188.2). 80% higher than their original CfD contracts and 25% higher than the Hinkley CfD. Others are lining up renegotiating their previously agreed CfDs and it would be naive imo to see those new CfDs being any less than the benchmark set by Orsted and Equinor.

    Even looking at Ireland the last ORESS average weighted strike price of €86.05 is greater than Hinkley. This 2050 37 GW plan, a that will not even provide our projected 2050 requirements, is a 50/50 split of generation between consummer usage and hydrogen production. Nobody other than the consummer is going to be paying for all the generation, so that doubles the strike price for the consummer to €172.10 index linked. And that is without the added costs of hydrogen, the cost of any electricity generated by burning hydrogen and the guarantee that we will take and pay for all they generate even if we neither need or use it.

    You can rattle away all you like on Hinkley, but in the real world today those are the costs of offshore wind, be it for CfD contracts or the capital cost of 37 GW offshore with no hydrogen add-ons.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Never.

    We are on the path to reduce emissions from to 0 by 2050. That's an average of 10% emissions from 2030-2050.

    With nuclear we'd still be using fossil fuel for backup as even a super optimistic 95% capacity factor for nuclear would mean 5% of the time we'd need fossil fuel or excess nuclear to cover scheduled outages.

    (Note countries like the US, France, Korea, India, China etc. can use an 18 month fuelling cycle as they have both summer and winter peak demands, countries with peak winter demand like the UK and Germany are no longer in the reactor business, so we couldn't assume fuelling would only be in the summer)

    Unless we installed enough nuclear to meet record demand we'd still need fossil fuel for peaking and 'Dunkelflaute'.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "Even looking at Ireland the last ORESS average weighted strike price of €86.05 is greater than Hinkley. "

    Czechia's seemingly anti-renewables ODS (Civic Democratic Party) party has arranged that the country will be entering contract negotiations with KHNP for two APR1000 reactors 1055 MW at an existing nuclear site. Cost has been rounded to CZK 200 billion per unit.

    The tender procedure was launched on 17 March 2022. Initial bids from
    EDF, KHNP and WEC (for one unit at Dukovany with a non-binding option
    for three more units – EDU6 and ETE 3 + 4) were received by 30 November
    2022. The amended bids were submitted by the bidders as of 31 October
    2023. In January 2024, the government decided to invite two bidders (EDF
    and KHNP) to complete updated bids for a binding option to build up to
    three additional nuclear units (EDU 6 and ETE 3+4). The contacted
    bidders submitted them by 30 April 2024. EDU II submitted the evaluation
    report to the Ministry of Industry and Trade on 14 June 2024 as a basis
    for the final government decision on the preferred bidder.

    Negotiations with the preferred contractor will now follow, among
    other things, on the option for more units, but also on the involvement
    of Czech industry. The contract with the contractor will be signed in
    the first quarter of next year. It is planned to secure a building
    permit by 2029 and start trial operation by the end of 2036, with
    commercial operation starting in 2038. Adherence to the construction
    schedule is subject to contractual penalties.

    From tender to power is minimum 16 years. On a site that already has nuclear power.

    Price is $8.65 billion per GW. On a site that already has nuclear power. And negotiations will go on for another year. ( pro rate cost for the 3.2 GW of Hinkley C would be €27.68 Bn )

    Fun fact this project has already had three years added since January. Was 2035 now 2038.

    "Westinghouse did not fulfill the required [tender] conditions," the government said in a statement without giving further details. " … Construction work on the first new Dukovany reactor was expected under the initial tender to start in 2029, with the reactor being ready for operation in 2035.

    And it needs state aid

    The whole project is a political decision and Westinghouse are suing KHNP over rector technology.

    EU regulations now insist that a deep radioactive waste repository (DWR) must be built by 2050 in order for new nuclear energy projects to qualify as sustainable investments. - You also need to add in the decommissioning costs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,732 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    You must be confusing me with someone else so spare me your "fantasies" - currently I'm rewetting an old cut-over bog on my own land in North Mayo as part of an EU scheme



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,596 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    My "Its funny that..." was not intended to refer to you. Apologies.

    I was remarking on the tendency of certain protest groups and populist politicians to dramatically switch their position on things like bog preservation to suit whatever the current hot-button issue is. When people moaned about wind turbines "spoiling their view", those people leapt to the defence of the boglands; now you're probably starting to hear from them about how rewetting is "causing floods"...



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,139 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It`s a pity you stopped reading at that sentence.

    Had you read just a few more lines you would have seen that the reality is because of the 50/50 split of this 37 GW offshore plan between consummer generation and hydrogen, the strike price for the consummer doubles to €172.10 with all the costs of hydrogen production, storage, distribution etc. on top of that. Plus the cost of any hydrogen subsequently burned to generate electricity, plus the guarantee that the consummer will pay for all electricity generated even if we do not need or use it. And all index linked. At the very minimum €200 MW/h compared to Hinkley`s €152, the most expensive NPP strike price you could find.

    Seems the Czechs at least are capable of basic mathematics.

    We have a 37 GW offshore plan for 2050 that will not even meet our projected 2050 needs of 14 GW that will initially cost in excess of €250 Bn. At $8.6 Bn./GW (€7.89 Bn.), 14 GW for the Czechs is €110 Bn. Less than half what is proposed here for a plan that will not even meet that 14 GW, and have a lifespan of 25 years compared to the Czechs which will, and have a 60 year lifespan.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Frankly most of us have stopped reading your posts!



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,139 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Not sure how you became the nominated spokesperson, but frankly it doesn`t matter. Ignoring facts doesn`t change them.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It is over three decades (1993) since plans were originally proposed for a national children's hospital. A decade later, (2006) a proposal was drawn up for it to be adjacent to the Mater. Planning was refused and site moved to Jame's. It is hoped it will be completed and opened for patients by this time next year. Cost - triple the original (high) cost and the most expensive hospital on a per bed basis - worldwide.

    Now, how long would it take to build a NPP here? Given the massive opposition to it from the anti-nuclear lobby, plus the NIMBY crowd, and the speed the planning takes plus the inevitable JR, I think 2050 will be a distant memory before it is even agreed to start construction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭gjim


    You've actually identified the very attraction of the idea for the Charlies of this world.

    Do nothing for 30 years because you know, climate scientists are lying to us.

    Also we'd have to go back to candles and turf until the thing was eventually switched on as the "plan" - unlike continuously rolling out wind, solar and batteries each year - is missing a vital part. While waiting for this marvel, how do we meet increasing demand for electricity as more and more of the primary energy sector is electrified (transport, industry and domestic heating/cooking) never mind the organic growth in demand for electricity?

    The answer of course, is to build more fossil-fuel storage as these cranks have convinced themselves that wind, solar and batteries are "too expensive" and "make no sense" despite the entire global electricity investment having switched to renewables.

    Nuclear isn't a "plan" - it's just a bunch of trolling by people gullible enough and silly enough to align themselves with US culture war BS thinking they're "owning the libs". It's pathetic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,139 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    LOL. The usual hot air from those that cannot even put a price on a 2050 plan they favour and connot even do the maths to see that it will not come close to providing our 2050 requirements and who keep blowing smoke on their great concern of us not getting off fossil fuels while the plan they favour will see us tied to even more fossil fuel generation than we are now well beyond 2050.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,656 ✭✭✭rogue-entity


    Private PV Solar panels may be cheap and getting cheaper, but currently due to the way Ireland 'licences' wind farms, wind is far from cheap and new wind farms coming on-board won't make it cheaper in the short term.

    I'm not so confident that "renewables backed by gas" is the solution here, but nuclear stations are not exactly cheap to build so it feels a bit like a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario because:
    1. My understanding of the grid is that power must be generated in sync with consumption. Solar can be reasonably steady but it isn't always windy where and when you want it to be so renewables are a challenge but undoubtedly useful.
    2. We don't have vast gas reserves of our own, we import it from the UK and (indirectly from) Norway and the high demand for gas is why we're paying 30-ish cent/kWh vs the 17c/kWh we were used to
    3. We want to move away from fossil-fuel stations, Nuclear should be a practical short-to-middle term option (MSRs for example)



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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    1. You are talking about synchronous generators. Solar is a non-synchronous generator. Wind may or may not be depending on the type of generator you use.
      However they are solutions to this issue, we just installed the worlds largest synchronous condenser at Moneypoint, which helps overcome this issue and we are likely to see more of these built as we turn off fossil fuel plants.
    2. First of all, I'm only paying 8kWh for residential gas, if you are paying those high prices check about moving gas supplier!
      We actually do have vast reserve of gas off the West coast, but for various reasons we decided not to tap into it beyond Corrib. Long term we likely won't use natural gas as the backup. Instead we would use Biogas produced from waste from the agricultural sector. Ag waste needs to be handled to meet our wider 2050 goals anyway, so it is a no brainer to tap into it. There is also Biomass, hydrogen, etc. The reality is we will likely see a variety of technologies used.
    3. There is nothing short term about Nuclear, it's horrendous up front capital costs mean that the only way the economics for Nuclear work is if you use it as base load generation and run it for 50+ years.
      Civilian SMR's don't exist, no one has actually built one beyond prototypes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,289 ✭✭✭Shoog




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,289 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Offshore wind is entirely more predictable and reliable and complements onshore wind. The reliability story is significantly overplayed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭gjim


    I don't think you understand the mechanism or market.

    Wind farm operators can bid in regular auctions for a 14 year CFD (Contract-For-Difference). If their bid comes in at under the settlement auction price, they are guaranteed to get paid the difference between the auction settlement price and the wholesale price for the next 14, but ONLY IF the wholesale price is lower. The downside is that if wholesale prices are higher, the wind farm operators have to pay the difference. In 2023, because of high wholesale prices, the operators had to hand over approx. 250m euro.

    But wind farm operators do not HAVE TO operate under a CFD - hence it's "not a license". Notably, recently Oriel Offshore, have decided not to bid and will finance, build and operate a 375MW facility themselves - having decided that they would prefer to compete directly in the day-ahead market auctions to supply electricity. Yes they don't get a rebate when wholesale prices are low, but they do get to keep all the profits for selling at high wholesale prices.

    There is no such thing as short to middle-term nuclear, you're either in for 50 years or the economics/finances are impossible.

    MSR practical? Are you mad? There has never EVER been a commercial molten-salt reactor. It's been tried in Oak Ridge, first as a small scale experimental reactor in the mid 1950s which was shut off after a few days having shown worrying signs of instability.

    Later significant funding was secured for a longer term "large" (15MW - minuscule by modern standards) reactor was funded which went critical in in 1964, it never managed more than 7MW output, was offline for 60% of the time before being abandoned after 4 or 5 years. Clean-up costs were astronomical.

    Despite what the nuclear fluffers will try to convince you, all these technologies - thorium/molten salt/SMR/etc. - have been tried (many times) during the early days of civilian nuclear power and all failed to show any promise - which is the reason the industry settled on PWR as the only feasible commercial reactor design.

    But, but China have built a working thorium molten salt reactor, you'll hear them claim. What China have built is a science experiment - a 2MW mini-reactor - and is only operating intermittently for the next 7 years as they try to figure if they can get such a reactor to operate continuously.

    MSR a practical solution for Ireland? After the cream of yank physicists and engineered failed to even get a pilot reactor to work? After the economic behemoth that is China will only commit to a tiny prototype. It's about as feasible as an Irish manned-Mars mission.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,139 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Personally I thought it was very poor posting form, especially from a moderator.

    But then maybe I got it wrong and it is acceptable here to shoot at the poster rather than address their post.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,289 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Hey I stopped reading your posts about a fortnight ago, so as I say it's just calling it as it is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,139 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    LMAO.You stopped reading my posts about a fortnight ago, yet here you are replying to my posts.

    You may have stopped replying to my posts, but you didn`t stop reading them. Like any other threads you have posted in you just choose to ignored inconvenient facts that didn`t fit your agendas.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    At present our grid can take 75% non-sync generation. This will increase to 95% which will mean Ardnacrusha's 90MW would support the inclusion of 1.8GW of wind / solar / storage / interconnection on the grid.

    Average is 45GW / 900MW which would take a long time for a 1055MW KHNP reactor to achieve when you include all the stoppages and the half year it takes to commission.

    Wind is getting more predictable, every decade we've added another day to accurate forecasts.

    The latest EU/EUMETSAT Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites offer updates every 2.5 minutes at a 500m resolution. I can't imagine a weather front crossing many wind farms that quickly. Our grid rules say primary reserve has 5 seconds to replace 75% of the largest generator so there's that too. Battery backed fast frequency reserve has kicked in within 180ms (vs taking 300ms to blink)

    Rolls Royce offered the UK government SMR's at half the price of Hinkley with the promise of thousands of UK jobs. Unlike the other companies offering SMRs they actually have a long history of making similar sized reactors for the Royal Navy. But the UK government didn't bite. That should tell you all you need to know about SMR's.

    Or lookup Trench 94. Or consider how many SMR projects went belly up because they relied on easy access to cheap Russian fuel. None of the SMR programs are trying anything new. It's all proven technology. Proven by cold war warriors to be uneconomic or unworkable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,289 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I stopped reading your repetitive rambling posts. I replied to your succinct on message post.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The Czech's are looking at adding to an existing nuclear power plant site and it's going to take at least 16 years.

    The UK is paying £8,125m €9,663Bn a year to feed the Drax monster (£132/MWh €157/MWh) which is producing 3,534 ktCO2e scope 3 emissions to provide the power that a 3.2GW nuclear plant isn't.

    And Drax are looking for up to £44.3 Bn for 25 years worth of carbon storage. Because it's not low emissions.

    Like "rent is dead money" we'd have to pay for 16 years of low carbon generation while waiting for nuclear. I make that as €154.6Bn for fuel and €33.7Bn for carbon storage. Or rather longer as we don't have an existing site ready like the Czech's have.

    Even a "zero cost" 3.2 GW nuclear plant would cost us €188Bn to keep the lights on until it arrived. That's before you include having to have a waste repository by 2050. And there's future decommissioning costs. And having to provide spinning reserve. And providing power during scheduled (and unscheduled) outages.

    And 3.2GW by 2040 is way too little, way too late.



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