USA 2024 presidential election

True, I'm hoping that Harris doesn't have anything quirky or in the closet they can really capitalise on, even at the risk of making herself a little boring.

On top of that there's the likeability factor and for me the jury is out on KH. We all know plenty of people who won't vote for someone because they "dont like" some tiny aspect of them, or the way they look or some random gut thing.

Then there's the "is she presidential" question and again the jury is out on that one, it's important for the Dems to put her in a presidential frame to make it easier for voters to visualise her as president.

I'm not sure Harris would take the Dem nomination under normal circumstances (without Trump), but I don't think she'd come last either. Anyway, this isn't normal circumstance and she's here to beat Trump, which she genuinely has a shot at.

Democrats won't be watching the Fox debates, they'll read about it in the NY times or equivalent where the lies will be blatantly shown up for what they are. Anybody watching on Fox already has their minds made up

Harris has jumped into the lead in predictive markets for the Popular vote (ie not the Electoral College vote)

Trump still leading in the overall winner prediction

When I heard that Harris was “indisposed” for the speech yesterday or whatever the excuse was, I felt this was her indirect way of garnering support from the pro-Palestine supporters without actually “saying” anything - might be completely wrong but just felt it could be possible

That’s why I think the VP choice on this occasion will be critical - firstly being the first woman president, it’s a momentous occasion - I guess Americans may want the “right” woman to be the first- whatever that is- so if they’re not entirely happy, then you have a very strong VP and you look at the whole offering, not just the president - that will likely get a certain amount of doubters on board but not all.

I guess the question is, do a lot of Democrats stay at home if they don’t like the offering? Answer yes when it comes to ethnic minorities at least- on that front, this group certainly have one reason to come out and vote for her- but the fact she’s been a prosecutor in the past it may not be as big a support if she hadn’t been.

Wallace left Fox a few years ago. I don’t know who their prominent centrist host is these days

It hasn’t been traditionally except when they hog the news for all the wrong reasons like Sarah Pallin - but leaving her aside, you’re correct, no not normally. I just think on this occasion, as the choice for candidate was made very quickly due to the circumstances, maybe someone other than Harris might have been picked had Biden announced even 6 months ago that he wouldn’t be going again, and left it to the usual process to work out who the chosen one would be.

We are where we are- I guess if I’m honest, yes there’s a bit of me that’s “worried” about Harris- that worry will ease the more she’s seeing performing and speaking well on stage and interviews - but considering Trump could well win, it’s just simple prudence to cover all bases and a strong VP is one of those bases. The VP won’t matter if Harris wins- but the post mortem if she loses will certainly be looking at the choice of VP

We politics geeks remember it was Tim Kaine, but really, short of the VP debate during the election, it's largely a ceremonial role. The Senate vote from the VP in the past usually didn't matter, but the last few administrations it did as the Senate was so tight and they stopped doing bipartisanship some time ago…starting about 2017 as I recall.

Mark Kelly seems like a candidate out of central casting - decorated military veteran, astronaut, heroic wife who he stood behind, plus Arizona's a swing state. Didn't realize Kelly was one of twins, of Irish descent and grew up in NJ.

I think "DEI" is the new "woke" in that it's a word that some people seem to delight in using - like they have found some kind of cheat code that allows them to couch their reactionary views

Think her closet is probably pretty clean since they'd have first started looking in to it in 2020 and even now, all they have is baseless innuendo about her career progression and claims she kept people in jail longer than they should have been. Which is all pretty weak when compared to Trump and his record both professionally and personally.

(P.S. I always think when it comes to this topic at how absolutely clean Obama was, can you imagine the extremes they went to to dig up dirt on him over 2 terms, and the only thing they got that had any traction was the birtherism which only appealed or interested wingnut conspiracy theorists)

How can you forget… <googles it> Tim Kaine? I think I was aware of him back in 2016 but then the record was overwritten.

I think the particular VP pick can be important with particular demographics, perhaps not wider than that.
And a VP who can help deliver a swing state.
It is marginal but these elections can come down to fine margins.

I think whether RFK runs or drops out an endorses Trump may be a bigger factor than VP picks. Polls show him drawing votes away from Trump.

Sigh. I mean they look like us- they speak a form of English. But yet so different.