General Irish politics discussion thread

Good to see Barry Andrews elected Chair of the European Parliament Development Committee. He will be grest in that role and hope he makes a difference to many peoples lives:

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0723/1461396-eu-committees/

It seems inevitable that there's going to be some overriding the wishes of local party organisations if the gender quota thing is to be achieved but this

Ms Carroll MacNeill read a party directive decreeing that two candidates be chosen, and that one had to be from the Carrigaline area.

seems a weirdly passive-aggressive way to go about it, and seems bound to cause more resentment than if party HQ had stipulated from day one that one of the candidates had to be a woman…

I suppose with McGrath and Coveney stepping out, it would leave a hole in that area.

If only the parties had some kind of advance notice of this requirement some years ago, giving them the opportunity to plan for effective candidate selection.

It applies if you want Electoral Act funding, which you get with >2% FPV, or with elected TDs.

You can run 100% men (or 100% women) but you won't get the funding after the election, if you qualify.

Ah, come on. You can’t come on here and talk sense… you’ll be guilty of shinnerphobia😝

Yes, and they'll have problem with electoral funding too.

Not really a standout candidate to run alongside Dillon though. They won't be over-confident of taking a second seat…

I can't see Bernard Durkan staying now that the other grandee in the constituency has stepped down (Catherine Murphy). Last time out there were three relatively elderly candidates (them and Emmet Stagg); now he'll stand out as being Very Very Old.

Most are old, got their pensions, don't want the hassle of running in what's an increasingly hostile environment to run in. Plenty of freshly re-elected councillors to take their place so less likely to be accused of losing FG a seat if they go now versus previous elections.

And so the latest Opinion Poll is to be published in the Sunday Indo tomorrow, prepared by Ireland Thinks.

FG 24% FF 20%

SF 19% INDs 18%

SDs 5% Lab 4% Aon 4% Grn 4% SPBP 2%

A clear indication now that FG and FF will be able to form a coherent government of the Centre, of probably 90+ seats between them, and likely the support of gene pool independents. 63% of Poll respondents expect this to be the case.

The Taoiseach and Tánaiste are the most popular Party leaders, respectively.

In February of this year, the equivalent Poll showed 47% opining that Mary Lou McDonald would be Taoiseach in the next Dáil. That has now fallen precipitously to 20%.

48% believe that Mr Harris will lead the new government.

There was a very brief period of polling in 2010 that had Labour in first, ahead of FG and significantly ahead of FF

Shifted strongly to FG by the time of the polling date though.

Labour pre-2011. If they had stayed out of that government I reckon we'd have FG/Labour/SF as the 3 medium sized parties, but that ship has long sailed now.

As it stands, the only real options I see for the next while will be whether FF + FG need a small party (e.g. Labour, Greens, Soc Dems) or a few independents to get into power.

I wonder is part of it that they are not really clear on their policies on a lot of things still - they come across as populist and just going with whatever the popular option is at any particular time?

There's also the issue of their history that I think will still keep people from voting for them no matter what. Regardless of their policies, some people will not vote for a party that still commemorates fallen volunteers from the troubles period. That is obviously less of an issue that it had been previously, but it's still there (it's one of the reasons I couldn't vote for them as an example).

Finally, I think they still have an issue with their ground game - a lot of Sinn Féin TDs remain anonymous even after being in the Dáil for 4.5 years now…

It remains to be seen how much "anger" there really is. Most people I talk to every day are perfectly calm and relaxed and just going about their day to day lives. The angry ones are those out on the fringes and extremes, but these are the types who favour violence, vigilantism, confrontation etc, all the while flooding social media with their hate filled nonsense from anonymous accounts.

Finally, I think they still have an issue with their ground game - a lot of Sinn Féin TDs remain anonymous even after being in the Dáil for 4.5 years now…

I'd say the reason why a lot of Sinn Féin TDs remain anonymous after being in the Dáil for 4.5 years is because SF want them to be fairly anonymous.

Is the reason their historical links with the IRA? Or a perceived current link with the IRA? (I'm not sure)

Ya, I'm trying to figure out what @paul71 was implying...

There are two issues, why Sinn Fein is failing to attract additional voters, and why it is losing those who voted for it the last time. There are a number of overlapping issues and problems that they need to address.

The leadership question: MLMD is a tired leader, lacking in energy, lacking in personality. A negative person, suited for a particular time, which has now come and gone. MM has grown into leadership as Taoiseach while FG, Greens, SDs and Labour have all changed leaders since the last election. The opportunity to change has probably come and gone, but it was an opportunity missed.

Populism in the post-Covid era: In the 2020 general election, there was a lot of dissatisfaction and the electorate were angry. This resulted in SF getting a huge boost. Since then, we have had Covid, one of the consequences was a shift in the electorate's understanding. Previously, the government would always be blamed for everything. Covid helped people realise that sometimes the government could do nothing about the circumstances that the country found itself in. The Ukraine crisis reinforced this view, and the electorate has shifted away from populist slogans to asking who is most competent to resolve issues. Sinn Fein falls short here as the next two issues demonstrate as it has little to offer beyond populist slogans.

Weak Front Bench: SF's front bench is weak. Other than Pearse Doherty and Eoin O'Broin, the rest have no public persona. Even then, those two are not the most engaging, giving off the impression of angry teenage boys rather than the gravitas of future Ministers. Others fail to impress, lacking command of their brief or appearing to be too whingy. The problem is on the backbenches are a heap of idiots who can't be let anywhere near a microphone or a TV camera. There is no sense that SF have competent people ready to take on roles in government.

Policy: If the country is looking for solutions, and your front bench is weak, one area you could try and compensate is by producing robust costed policies. The recent 8-page policy on immigration was laughable, barely distinct from the government's approach, and lacking in details on costs and practicalities. How could lengthy consultation with locals be balanced with the urgency of the response needed? How much would need to be spent on building accommodation for migrants, and why should this be done instead of building for Irish people? MLMD flapped around on even the most basic questions when interviewed. As for the €300k house, there isn't a person in Ireland who believes that to be realistic. Having had 4.5 years since the last election, the Sinn Fein preparedness for government is shockingly poor. It seems that they believed that continuing to rant for the sake of ranting would be sufficient to propel them into government. They have been fighting the last election, not the next one.

Foreign Policy: This is a big problem. Declan Kearney cosying up again to one of Putin's lackeys is the sort of indiscretion we don't see from the major parties. It smells of naivety, of stupidy, of carelessness. Ireland has interests. We must remain close to the West, to protect FDI, to protect the livelihoods of Irish citizens. Getting in bed with Putin is possibly the worst possible thing to do. SF won't be trusted to hold the role of Foreign Minister.

PIRA Legacy: There are those, like myself, who will never be able to vote for Sinn Fein because of the PIRA legacy. However, beyond that, there are two things that are putting other people off voting for Sinn Fein. Firstly, there is the continued commemorations to honour and celebrate murderers and rapists who committed atrocities in living memory, the repeated failure to apologise properly for what the PIRA did, the failure to come clean on how SF is actually run and financed. Secondly, there is the worry out there about whether SF can be trusted to hold the Defence and Justice Ministries. In particular, unresolved allegations of garda collaboration with the PIRA, the need for SF members to consult the party before co-operating with the gardai, and the feelings within the garda ranks about the killing of their colleagues by the PIRA. These issues remain unresolved, and while some like me will never be swayed, others will be swayed if these become things of the past. It remains in SF hands to address these issues, but they won't, as that will be seen as a betrayal of the PIRA.

When you look at all of the above, the conclusion is that there are large swathes of the electorate who will continue to vote for other parties as they do not trust SF. The weaknesses I have identified are not being addressed, and the populist strengths of SF are not carrying a currency in today's Ireland. Something has to change if SF is not to fade back further before the election.