Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

Options
1102103104105106108»

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,314 ✭✭✭thomil


    Haven’t seen anything on the OSINT accounts that I’m following. The Wall Street Journal is running an interesting story though. The US will be providing a sizeable weapons package for the F-16s, including AIM-120 AMRAAMs, AIM-9X Sidewinder, additional AGM-88 HARM and JDAM conversion kits to turn “dumb” bombs into guided weapons. SO Ukraine won’t depend on the donor nations of the aircraft for weapons.

    Even with that, I still expect the F-16s to be playing defense for a while once they’re operational in the country. And that in turn could take a while, there’ll likely be a pretty considerable work up period for all the ground and support crews as well as the pilots to get up to operational status.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,427 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    The F-16 is over 50 years old.

    I think people need to calm the expectations.


    Ukraine gets 50 year old equipment, when they deserve and need modern day equipment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,739 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    The Ukrainians seem to be doing well with similar vintage Sukhois and Migs. Spare parts and armaments should be easier to source for F16s.

    Agreed that they aren't a silver bullet or wonder waffen but they will undoubtedly be useful. As regards more modern equipment, something like the Grippen would be ideal but isn't available in the same numbers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Are they getting 50 year old with 50 year old weapons and sensors?

    Or more modern versions of an airfrane that first went into service 50 years ago?

    It is in use by many air forces around the world. It is modern.

    It is not latest / cutting edge but it is not obsolete either.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,976 ✭✭✭✭josip


    50 years since first flight. By the same measure, the latest and greatest F35 would be 18 years old.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,314 ✭✭✭thomil


    The basic design may be fifty years old, but the sensor suites and electronics on these aircraft aren’t. All of the Dutch, Norwegian and Danish aircraft were upgraded in the early 2000s to bring them up to the same standard as the new build F-16s rolling off the assembly line at the time. This means upgraded engines, a vastly upgraded cockpit, new onboard computers, a vastly superior radar, compatibility with weapons such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM as well as the latest generation of AIM-9 Sidewinder, data link capability, and so on. Make no mistake, these aircraft are very potent weapons systems,

    Besides, the F-16 has something that the ex-soviet aircraft currently in use by Ukraine don’t: A well-established logistics supply chain. Over 4500 aircraft of the type were built, and around 2100 of those are still in service. And the aircraft is still in production. Not bad for a fifty year old design!

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,566 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Political prisoners are disappearing from penal colonies in the last week all over Russia. Relatives have lost contact and are just being told they were moved but not told where to.

    Some are saying it could be a sign of a movement to America. Which seems strange to an outsider. With Putin holding his own people hostage being threatened with death. And then the US saying "Don't kill" "Give them to us". And then if true what does Putin get in return.

    Could just be wishful thinking on the relatives part. Who knows.



  • Registered Users Posts: 724 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    The Falcon is still being improved on as is the B-52(1952). Air frames like the F-16 are perfect for the Ukraine theatre because the russians are using cold war materiel. The people will be clapping their hands soon skin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 724 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    Ya intercepting cruise missiles and defending civilian zones are their immediate priorities no question.

    One they get a window they'll start mopping up russian air defences with wild weasel type sorties.

    Nobody fears the S-400 and russian arms deals are drying up like the Aral sea



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,059 ✭✭✭rogber


    Indeed, the F16 is not some wonder weapon that will change the course of the war, anymore than Taurus would be. Should all this stuff be given to Ukraine? Yes. Is it going to send the Russians running back across the border? No. They will adapt and respond, as both sides keep doing and unless there's a miracle nothing much will change between now and next year



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭Field east


    D these Russian soldiers not see Russian bodies strewn on the ground as they approach the front lines;, vehicles bombed /burned; injured / the dead being returned from the front lines. So they MUST HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHATS IN STORE FOR THEM



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    I'd say their options at that point are pretty limited to be fair!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,314 ✭✭✭thomil


    Whilst I agree with you on the fact that it won't be a wonder weapon, these aircraft will provide quite a bit of additional capability to the UkrAF, rather than just plugging gaps in their current inventory. The F-16 is a true multirole aircraft and while, as has been mentioned before in this thread and its predecessor, the first operational missions will be flying CAP and intercept missions, I firmly expect the mission envelope to expand quite considerably once Ukraine have two or three squadrons worth of aircraft at their disposal.

    I'm also not quite sure whether Russia will be able to respond quite as easily to this new capability as they would to changes on the ground. Russia has shown considerable reluctance when it comes to using air power in this war, mostly lobbing air-launched ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine from launch positions that aren't even in the same time zone. Their tactical aviation units seem to be limited to flying extremely close air support, even with air superiority aircraft like the Flanker series, and as far as I know, Russia never revived the USSR's DACT (Dissimilar Air Combat Training) program.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,778 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,464 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Suggestions it was hit by an FPV drone as it was taking off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,473 ✭✭✭weisses




  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭thatsdaft


    Ain’t HIMARs and M270 rocket launchers from late 70s-80s tech

    And these have been causing nightmares for Russians



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,110 ✭✭✭pcardin


    50 years is 1970's. ruSSia is fighting with tech from late 1940's



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,464 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,022 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Interesting social media post I came across purportedly from New Zealander living in Russia - in response to Putin having to double the bonus for new volunteers (up to 400,000 rub)

    "I've been posting this a lot lately, but here's some of my thoughts about this as a Russian from Petersburg.

    Firstly, it's a common meme that they don't actually pay these bonuses at all, but probably this is being confused with the death bonus to families. It's true that they routinely evade this death payment by simply not marking the soldier as dead but "missing". However, from what I've heard and can understand, there's no reason to think that these sign-up bonuses don't get paid. At least I've heard various stories about these payments being used to buy whole apartments in poorer regions, and I know one family whose son signed up and they got the full payment pretty quickly. Also, there are many reasons why people don't want to sign up (which I'll get into shortly), but if they were refusing to pay after signing, I would expect everyone to know about it and spread the word. I haven't seen any such complaints though.

    The thing is - they are desperate. They want people to know that these guys actually get paid the bonus, because they absolutely need as many as possible. You walk down the street here and every second billboard is an advertisement for the contract, or what other "benefits" you get from signing up. Now you can even earn a hundred thousand roubles if you successfully persuade someone to sign a contract. And yet, every night there are young uneducated and poor guys in the streets, drinking alcohol and asking for money for beer or cigarettes. There are still tons of young military age guys working for atrocious pay at McDonald's or cleaning streets. None of them want to go, even with this life-changing money, because everyone knows now that Ukraine is hell, and people don't last long enough to enjoy it. And not like their political views changed.

    You don't even see Z-patriots or Z flags any more. The people who talked enthusiastically about the war two years ago are silent, and if it comes up in conversation, they dismiss it and move on. Of course, being Petersburg, there was never much Z-patriotism here like there was elsewhere. Still, it's clear that popular support for the war has plummeted, and now people are just burying their heads six feet in the sand and hoping the storm will pass without raining on them.

    Another thing I've seen people talking more and more about is the fear that, because the carrot isn't working, Putin is going to start using the stick, and specifically there is increasing annoyance that all these Rosgvardiya, OMON, police, FSO, FSB, etc (all millions of them) are still sitting on their asses in the city centre, smoking and laughing with each other. There will be such a huge backlash if they start conscription massive amounts of regular people while these goons and cosmonauts get to be layabouts. Not that I'm saying this backlash will amount to any sort of popular uprising of course, but there are other ways this kind of sentiment can have consequences for Putin, and you can see this in how hard the Kremlin has worked to isolate regular people from the negative effects of the war, and tried to make everything seem normal.

    But if Harris wins in November, Putin is going to face a grim dilemma. We're only two years into this and Russia has lost half a million working age men. If this rate keeps up, we're looking at 1.5m by the end of Harris's term in 2028, and if she wins, it's not unlikely she'll get a second term either. If she wins in November, I think Putin will have no choice but to do a full general mobilization including Moscow and Petersburg and try to go all in, because he won't be able to outlast her to 2028. He will have to go big, or go to the dacha.

    Just my two kopecks. There are so many variables that it's very hard to make serious predictions about what will happen. There are a lot of warning signs on the horizon for Russia though, and things aren't going to get better."



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,879 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Appreciate the input. I've been to St Petersburg and Moscow and it's a shame what that man's doing. Regarding the election I think he'll have a meltdown if Trump doesn't win. The French elections recently were a big blow to him.

    @thatsdaft Russia used a combination of military equipment from every decade all the way back to the 50's. Thankfully it's top heavy and the majority of vehicles are from the 60-80's. Unfortunately their missile tech is quite advanced and until they receive enough patriot's etc and ammo they'll struggle against them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,427 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    I’m happy reading that and admitting I’m very wrong.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,781 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    Came across this on Reddit, a rough guide to the frontline changes over the last month on the eastern and northern front, absolutely miniscule russian gains being made for the huge costs in manpower and material.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1egmuy7/notsoquality_maps_of_territorial_changes_in_the/#lightbox



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,879 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    We'll not know for sure until the war is over but wouldn't it be fantastic if Ukraine aren't actually losing many soldiers, Russia eventually get worn down and Ukraine go on the attack. Could take 2 years to reach this point. I've no doubt if Ukraine can stop the aerial glide bombs Russia are fucked in terms of damaging the Ukrainians. They are currently a huge asset and most of Ukrainians losses are probably to these.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,923 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    That's it. (IMO) the US/Western hesitancy and fear throughout this (over last 2+ years) and fact that Putin possibly could still "win" by his own lights if corrupt pro-Russia politicians can just get themselves elected in some key countries by hook or by crook keeps it grinding on. He's effectively hoping something will turn up eventually to swing things in his/Russia's favour. I hope it is a gambler's fallacy from Putin, but I suppose when he values the lives of his own "subjects" at almost zero, he's willing to keep betting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,778 ✭✭✭zv2


    Slightly off topic but very well said.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭thatsdaft


    Interesting point made that last year western armchair generals were giving out at Ukrainians during their offensive that they moved slow and didn’t capture much, but it’s the Russians this year that are facing the same problems in their assaults where they get obliterated mainly thanks to drones everywhere

    Imho these lessons are completely passing western militaries by, militaries that should be closely watching and learning and helping



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 11,566 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    The ukrainians were brought up in the Russian military. They know the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian army. They know how to defeat the Russian army. They wouldn't have fought back if they didn't think they had them. It was the hesitancy of supply of arms to Ukraine that slowed progress/defence and or maybe the US used some stone cold Artificial Intelligence and asked what strategy would be best to bring regime change to Russia and get Ukraine their country back without fsb going allah akbar around the world in terrorist attacks.

    On the drones. It's a new age of warfare. Facial recognition, heat infrared camera technology, number plate ID, autonomous flying and positioning and targeting. And now drone manufacturing getting cheaper all the time.



Advertisement