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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024

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Comments

  • #602
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭highdef


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456206#Comment_122456206

    Possible squall like feature looks to be developing now, currently stretching from north Limerick into south Galway. Something to keep an eye as this looks to be the boundary between the mild and humid air ahead of it and the cooler drier air behind. It may fizzle out or not become anything further than it is now but certainly something to keep an eye on.

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  • #603
    LambshankRedemption
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,943 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    I'll have my eyes peeled.



  • #604
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,039 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very warm humid airmass set to transit the country Sunday into Monday. High Theta E and Theta W airmass giving an unstable atmosphere producing very heavy rain and possibility of Convective conditions leading to thunderstorms. Could be in the high teens overnight with a high DP of 17 or 18c into Monday. Initial shear readings looking high too . ECM leading the precipitation totals showing possibly over 50mm in 24 hrs in the West . Met Eireann already mentioning ' thundery in places ' and after the news saying possible updates to the warnings. Fair enough chance of a few overnight storms Sunday into Monday and watching to see if Monday could be active in places .

    One to watch to see how it pans out.

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  • #605
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Would that be country wide or west based?



  • #606
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,039 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122458587#Comment_122458587

    Hard to know at this stage but Monday could have an active frontal passage with embedded thunderstorms over a wide area, huge converging winds aiding forcing, could see a line of thunderstorms transiting the country. Will see and have a better idea tomorrow night.

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  • #607
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122458666#Comment_122458666

    thanks Meteorite



  • #608
    glightning
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 605 ✭✭✭glightning


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122458666#Comment_122458666

    That line you talk about for Monday showing up on an app I use. Lightning risk chart below

    IMG_1936.png



  • #609
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,614 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122458666#Comment_122458666

    I can see an orange warning being issued for rain if models keep up fairly high totals over 24 hour period



  • #610
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,039 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122458722#Comment_122458722

    Not far off it now in the W and NW, some high totals over mountains in the SW also possible.



  • #611
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,614 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122458749#Comment_122458749

    Could be updated later today I'd say



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  • #612
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    all toned down now, with thunder activity gone, just standard misery now…



  • #613
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,039 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think there is possibility of isolated storms moving in off the sea overland some bit in the W or maybe the NW tomorrow night /early Monday morning. The frontal passage on Monday could produce a few isolated storms but not looking like widespread, maybe best chance in coastal areas ( perhaps a chance in the SW, along the S and SE coastal areas ), the front should get energised and unstable over the Irish sea convergence zone and become quite active moving into the UK later Monday.

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  • #614
    glightning
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 605 ✭✭✭glightning


    As always with everything (sunshine, heat, storms, cold).. Everything gets pushed east of Ireland



  • #615
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Yes, it's called standardised misery, everything interesting gets sucked out of the equation at about 12 to 24 hours beforehand, and then your left with just the basic muck. YAY Ireland.



  • #616
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,614 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122461409#Comment_122461409

    I couldn't have put it better myself 100%



  • #617
    LambshankRedemption
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,943 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122461037#Comment_122461037

    That might be my fault. We had a warm sunny day about 2 months ago, so I bought some ice lollies to put in the freezer, for some of the upcoming sunny days and we havn't had one since.

    This morning I even had to put on the heating.



  • #618
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Some recent strikes in West Cork.



  • #619
    Mech1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,114 ✭✭✭Mech1


    one-teenage-girl-in-winter-clothes-showing-delicious-ice-cream-eating-MMDF3P.jpg

    ..



  • #620
    The Macho Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 144 ✭✭The Macho Man


    Just had a very long low rumbling thunder over Portarlington. Really nice long one. Just as it's started to rain. Will check the Met Eireann radar shortly to see if a lightning strike was recorded. I did see there were strikes around Bantry Bay about 2 hrs ago



  • #621
    Banarol
    Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Banarol


    There was a nice few strikes around Portlaoise in the last while



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  • #622
    Banarol
    Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Banarol


    The cluster around Portlaoise was short lived and quickly died out



  • #623
    The Macho Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 144 ✭✭The Macho Man


    Just seeing that now on the radar. Likely the source of where I heard the thunder



  • #624
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭highdef


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122465526#Comment_122465526

    I think it was mentioned that there could be thundery rain in the band crossing the country.



  • #625
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,167 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    a good few strikes in the Kildare area now, I’m surprised this thread is so quiet at the moment?



  • #626
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,213 ✭✭✭pad199207


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122466495#Comment_122466495

    Yeah good few rumbles here the past while



  • #627
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,039 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Keeping an eye to see will there be an increase in activity along the coasts soon as the weather gets more into the converging winds.

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    image.png



  • #628
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,179 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Heard what I thought was thunder here in Portrane about an hour ago, and see strikes were reported of the coast just north of me



  • #629
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,179 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Large clap of thunder overhead 10mins ago



  • #630
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,039 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Been watching the coming Sunday for a few days now and the parameters are there for thunderstorm activity. Approaching front, albeit weak perhaps but the timing of the upper trough ( negatively tilted I reckon ) after the heat of the day, could get up into the low to mid 20's and remaining quite warm into the evening when storms could break out. High readings in both Theta E and W, high Dp's up over the mid teens and looks like lots of low and deep level shear to aid instability. Early lapse rates look very decent but at this stage no certainty but could see storms late into the night and early Monday morning, ECM currently showing the Eastern half of the country as most favorable with the most strength but could see them anywhere really. ECM currently showing a very active night into the early Monday morning…..but as we have seen this summer charts have gotten very diluted down nearer the time but one to watch nevertheless ⚡️⚡️



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  • #631
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    I was wondering why the really intense rain didnt pass over us on the model runs for sunday, then i realised why, because it would have heavy thunderstorm activity embedded, this is why it has stalled and is staying out at sea, couldnt be having anything too interesting taking place now, could we, of course if the heavy does cross over us, the activity will just vanish as it approches land… and then burst into life again in the irish sea, i mean you just couldnt make this stuff up, theres like some type of force field in the atmosphere over ireland that kills off everything dynamic or interesting.

    the only positive is that Met Eireann havent mentioned any thunder activity for sunday yet,if they do start mentioning it around saturday evening, then you know its a bust.

    phrases to look out for include thundery rain, thundery burst, the odd rumble of thunder, isolated thunder all of which usually lead to nothing.

    YAY, Ireland, it would drive you to drink.



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