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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

1246

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,254 ✭✭✭pauldry


    We will see. I still think it will be misty n windy out West like today with low rain low cloud and an annoying wind and very muggy. Does the sun exist anymore?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    finally throwing in the towel for this summer, the pattern continues into August and St Swithin as always calls it correctly..

    a decent Sept if that’s any consolation



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭ascophyllum


    After a few nice days the coming weekend looks pretty awful for the western half of the country and the GFS is non stop low pressure out to the 12th August...I don't think there have been 2 hot days together in the West since May sometime 😀



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,254 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Rain finally cleared around 9pm and clear night followed so 11c now. Another single figure Summer night likely.

    August looks like a rainfest for West but no exceptional totals just rain every day and about 25 to 30mm for BH weekend.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,811 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Are models still looking awful 😖? I've said it before and I'll say it again we've been stuck in this low pressure pattern since end of May, surely some stage in this month we will get even a few days of warmth like today



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    ECM and GFS looking to bring high pressure our way at +210 hours (10th of August) but we're kind of stuck in the battleground between them in places which can bring wet weather. GFS still rolling out and ECM not due for a while so would need to check again later this evening for the full 12z picture. This has been the story of the summer though, beyond a few days there's always high pressure on the models but it never seems to actually happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,811 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Yes exactly it's horrible this summer but fingers crossed 🤞 even a few days are nice at some stage this month that's all I'm asking for lol



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Any more signs of a change in the weather on the horizon?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    None. A continuation of the westerly/north-westerly pattern that we've been in all summer looks like it will probably dominate August. Western areas could be in for a fairly wet couple of weeks to come with southern and eastern areas perhaps a little dryer and slightly milder. There is very little scope for excitement in the model watching at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,254 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya as I said about a month ago ya could easily predict most days will be unsettled with rain showers and wind and just the odd dry day even odder in the West. However August will probably have higher rainfall than May June and July due to deepening lows and more active jet. In the West and North it will feel like Autumn most days but in the East and South it will still feel Summery some of the time.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,253 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,811 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I hope your wrong , I'm sick of the rain in the northwest, the east by far gets so much better weather than us in the northwest, I miss Dublin as for that's one of my reasons



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,074 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    This morning's charts should come with a health warning!! After two dreadful Summer months it looks like August is going into full Autumn mode with wind and rain all on the menu!! As I and others mentioned several weeks don't rely on a decent August, it seems to be a Summer month confined to history for the last 2 decades



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Grim reading indeed, the GFS has low pressure after low pressure right out to the end of its run. Some of them look like they'd bring some strong winds our way depending on the track. ECM not quite as bad but still a very poor outlook. Any attempt of high pressure coming this way just gets beaten back by lows coming in on the jet, which has just been on steroids this entire summer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    I think as long as that large very warm sst anomaly in the Atlantic persists our general Weather pattern we have been having will not change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭Niall145


    Of course not; autumn started on the 1st of June.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 676 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Considering the set up of the jet stream and how it would normally have dealt us a very wet and cool summer, this summer (so far) has been very good when you compare it to all the summers of 2007-2012 which had a very similar pattern.

    Even this weekend's impactful weather has only yielded 2.7mm in this part of the country. It has been dry and cool up to mid-July and rather humid and dry since. More sunshine would be most welcome, but I'd take this over anything those awful 2007-2012 summers have dealt us.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    While this has been a poor summer it's not in the same league as last summer which was a trainwreck or summer 2020 which was also a carcrash. Summers 2007-2012 were awful too. Having said that I think August will be the poorest month of this summer as it is likely to be considerably wetter than the June or July just past. While I've given up on this summer, I just hope next summer isn't bad summer #3 in a row. I feel we are generally due a half decent summer once every 3 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    I think you must be forgetting about June 2023? An excellent summer month! Weeks of warm sunshine at a time.

    At least we had that last year. Nothing more than a pet day or two between the drizzle this year.

    Ironically (or maybe wishfully) I'm taking heart from FI charts showing nothing but LPs. Since June they've been regularly showing HP building 10 days out, that vanish as they get closer. Maybe the opposite will happen in August...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,254 ✭✭✭pauldry


    In Sligo its been a very chilly Summer. Up there with 2011 and 2015 but not incredibly wet. Actually drier than normal believe it or not!



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    First half of June was good last year. Final 10 days on June and all of July and August were a washout last summer and for me that made it overall worse than this summer because I spent most of last summer stuck inside looking out at the rain. I've certainly been outdoors alot more this summer compared to last summer until this weekend which has been a bit of a washout.



  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    At least you won't have to change your name to 'paulwet'. 🤭 sorry couldn't resist !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 177 ✭✭joinme


    June '23 really was a highlight of last summer and was the best bit of summer weather in recent memory. This summer has had really nothing for sun lovers, mostly overcast blandness .... depressing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,170 ✭✭✭50HX


    Can we keep to FI discussion as per mod note please

    There Is an awful lot of chatter in this thread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Two good Augusts this century, ‘03 and ‘22 but remember the records show that there wasn’t a good August between 1959 and 1975 which brings us to this ‘European monsoon’ that Sryan wrote about in detail last week.
    How I would love to experience an August like 1955 which by all accounts was extra special!

    edit: agree with above post and admit going off topic but are there ANY charts worth posting at the moment?

    Post edited by Elmer Blooker on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Christ, this is depressing 😣

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,993 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Can you elaborate please I am not able to read charts wish I could



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the GFS ensembles showing big support for the relatively cool pattern to continue for the rest of August with temperatures near average or slightly below and dartboard lows aimed at Ireland in a never ending green blob of slime. Anything warm or settled remains to our east and south.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,993 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Thanks Gonzo appreciate that but it is very bad weather for us never ending



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    +168, we’d all love the UKMO to happen but realistically the GFS will most likely get it right continuing the pattern of the summer so far.

    Is that deep low the remnants of Debby? I don’t know but if it is we may just get the pattern change that we are longing for?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Mean sea level pressure for September. It's often the case that a poor August ( looking likely to be a poor August atm) is followed by a good September. This chart if it is near the mark for September confirms my belief that nothing much will change until that large area of very warm sst's in the Atlantic changes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,697 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    That's for the entire autumn, not September. The individual monthly anomalies come out in a few days.



  • Registered Users Posts: 690 ✭✭✭US3


    We will soon be looking at charts for autumn. Depressing



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Still plenty of very warm air around...it looks like we will still only get 2 or 3 days of warm weather at a time the same as we were getting all summer no sign of prolonged heat yet....but still chance autumn/September could be the hottest part of the summer we got 30 degrees last September and 23 degrees in October..so still 2 months left to get chance of warm weather if its anything like last year



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    In about 10 days time a Hurricane tracks close to ireland...there is a chance that if it tracks through the hot air to the south of us before reaching us it could be very dangerous...if it takes the usual track through the cool atlantic air it will just be the usual wind and rain we get…



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Very cold air is starting to return to Greenland next week dragging colder air down into the north atlantic..at the same time there is very warm air coming out of east america and ex Hurricane also pulling up very warm air...this is all colliding and mixing out in the atlantic...its going to create alot of wind and rain…we might get some of it..but its going to get our weather moving and change this weather pattern...it might not be all wind and rain though for us signs of it creating warm weather too as early as the end of the August into September…whatever we end up with the weather is going to change anyway at least



  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    Very true Hooter. This time of year and through September is very unpredictable. The predicted busy hurricane season this year will leave it even more so. Hurricane debbie already give us the recent plume of warm air and thunderstorms . Hurricane Ernesto looks like giving us a real autumnal swipe next week. I hope one of these hurricanes will buckle up the jetstream and give us a big fat high-pressure.

    There's a good article from met eireann on this year's potential busy hurricane season and the effects that they may have on our weather .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Would anyone have a stab at the Coldplay concerts timeframe?

    240,000 people in the outdoors praying for warm and sunny evenings.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,964 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Coldplay fans might get very lucky indeed considering the summer we've had. ECM, GFS, ICON and GEM are all showing high pressure moving in on Thursday and sticking around for a few days. Don't think it's going to be a scorcher or anything but it looks to be warm and dry at least which is the main thing. Usual caveats apply with FI charts though, it could all easily fall apart as we've seen many times this summer.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,233 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM going for some warmer weather now on a few runs all right, up to the mid 20's in parts, GFS not bad but not as warm on there runs, GEM decent enough but similar temp to the GFS. Will see if it holds the trend. Not devoid of rainfall but should be less than of late out to +240hrs

    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Doubt we'll see a return of the Atlantic weather train until mid-September. Indications are that by the end of next week that we'll have the start of a long overdue settled warm spell of weather which could last for 7 to 10 days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    First go at forecasting in a while but happy with these charts so will chip in..

    18Z GFS and UKMO bring in the high by Friday evening and it's not going anywhere by the end of either run.

    ICON and ARPEGE only go to +120hrs but following the same general direction.

    Fingers crossed we continue to see consistency for the next 2-3 days to lock it in. Well overdue.


    Rain in the east virtually non existent well into FI too.

    While I'm a city slicker I'm told that dairy production is way down this year not helped by poor grass growth so this chart below is probably unwelcome for some. Spare a thought for the farmers while sunbathing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,103 ✭✭✭KanyeSouthEast


    how long would this weather last for lads? It looks like it will start next Friday?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,145 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    from early september, untill people come back from their holidays in mid september, roughly around the 12 th.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,045 ✭✭✭selectamatic


    Poor grass growth has largely been down to cooler than normal temperatures at night throughout late spring and summer.

    I'd say nearly all farmers will be welcoming this especially the lads with the combine harvesters waiting patiently.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,715 ✭✭✭✭fits




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    For me this is 2013 all over again, a very good chance that there will be a decent spell of summer type weather just after I leave the country and it should end just before I return home. However this spell doesn't look like it will deliver anything as warm as what we had last September but low 20s for a week or more is entirely possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 351 ✭✭Not made with hands




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    I might actually get the kids pool out this year... fingers crossed.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,019 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z wobbles on the warm and settled spell from next weekend.

    The GEM not as unsettled as the GFS, gets some high pressure towards us but looks a bit flimsy and it's not a warm ridge either with winds from the north-west around the high.

    ECM similar to the GEM

    The GFS 12z says no to a warm and settled spell, the others tip their toe in the water so I think we need a few more days on this one before we can be confident.



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