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Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,465 ✭✭✭macraignil


    moskovyte military facility hit by missiles in Luhansk region of Ukraine this afternoon:

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-launch-massive-missile-attack-on-enemy-in-luhansk/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,689 ✭✭✭flutered




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Do you mean that if the war ended a well trained Russian army would set its sights on Europe? Or are you asking whether Ukraine, if forced into peace and ceding territory, would turn on Europe?

    In relation the first possibility, it is certainly an advantage that large portions of the Russian military that survives the war will have actual combat experience. How many of those soldiers will remain in the army or will be interested in a round 2 in a few years time is hard to say.

    Generally, Im not convinced by the argument that the Russian armed forces are stronger now than before the war. They have lost massive amounts of equipment, expended considerable reserves and have a populace who, while not demoralised yet, would generally be happier if the war was over and a new war didnt start.

    Russia will continue to pose a military threat to Europe for the foreseeable future and Europe needs to be prepared for same. But they need to prepare to deter the Russians, not prepare for an inevitable war against a strong opponent. They wont have the capacity for another large scale war for some time.

    On the second interpretation, I dont see it but then again Im not Ukrainian. I think Ukranians are for the most part thankful to the Western countries who helped them and are not going to turn against them because the West couldve done more etc.

    For the same reasons as with Russia, they will not be capable of fighting a high intensity war for several years afterwards, and in any event the hatred of Russia in Ukraine is likely to last for generations similar to Ireland and the British.

    So overall the threat to Europe will be low over the next few years. However, that doesnt mean that the threat should be ignored and its far better to invest in military capacity now rather than spend multiples of that in a war later.

    Sorry if Ive taken your question up wrong. One thing I will state though is that while there seems to be an increasing view that the West has given Ukraine enough to not lose but not enough to win etc, I think this ignores the substantial amounts of aid already committed/given, from a backdrop of the Western countries indicating in early 2022 that they didnt want to get involved at all and in the current context of budget/deficit concerns, cost of living politics and the need to rearm themselves, I think the Western motivation has been to give the most they reasonably can without seriously impeding their own budgets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,712 ✭✭✭amandstu


    My fear is that the defeated Ukrainians will be coerced into helping the Russians and that their expertise will be gang pressed into their attempt to expand into NATO ,and other countries.

    Back to the Soviet Union but worse -more aggressive on its borders.

    It had crossed my mind that Ukraine might genuinely turn against us if it felt let down (it is the hope that kills you) but that may not be necessary as we have seen what totalitarianism and control of state media/vicious censorship can do to the Russian population and the depths of depravity they have accepted as normal.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Perhaps, but realistically Russia can at best take a level of territory similar to what he has now plus Kharkiv and the remainder of donetsk. They will have to deal with insurgency in these places (which requires leaving occupational forces) and they will have to pay to rebuild or else face an even unhappier populace.

    So I dont see Russia taking over all of Ukraine and I dont think that the portion that they might, but also might not, be able to successfully annex long term is worth the cost to their military and budget.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 711 ✭✭✭scottser


    Russia still holds the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia. If they 'lose' this war you just know they're going to blow it up as a monumental '**** you' to Europe. Now I have always baulked at the idea of any EU armed force or NATO putting boots on the ground in Ukraine but if there was ever a valid reason for doing so, taking back that plant is it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,574 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The mere mention of Russia, or anything remotely connected to Russia to any Ukainian within at least the 60-70 years, and possibly much longer will elicit a response which could see you or whoever spoke about Russia, flat on your back. And that's in the best-case scenario.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 754 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    ”ordinary Russians”

    Prompted by photo of a dismembered ukranian service member Russians are sharing around

    Yes Russians are barbaric and responsible for the crimes being committed



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Multiple explosions in Kyiv, air defence active

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,494 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    You would like to think the “ordinary Russian” wouldn’t be happy their country isn’t allowed compete in the Olympics etc and would make them question what Putins war is all about?


    They are just as complicit in this insanity.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,712 ✭✭✭amandstu


    You don't think those who disagree just say as llittle as they can?

    Granted those who support the regime above what they feel they are forced to seem either blinkered or loathsome.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,699 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    You have a Kremlin that is teaching/indoctrinating children from a young age that Russia is the greatest country on the planet. They preach how they beat the Germans and took over a % of the world in landmass. All the nationalistic songs beat of this. Putin now is preaching how the rest of the world is fighting with each other and how russia is a bastion of "family values". He can say what he wants and do what he wants to justify being a dictator. He just gets the nationalists and youth groups to do his bidding.

    Today there was the annual reading of names of Stalin's executions in Karelia. The Kremlin youth blasted out ww2 nationalistic songs to drown out the name reading. Why? Because they can and are told to do so by the Kremlin. And they want to make Stalin great again. So bullying it will be.

    Separately to all this any real opposition in Russia this week have watched a prisoner swap in what was supposed to be a political prisoner swap to Germany turn out to be a Kremlin plant and joke of a person. Their message that got them in prison and now their message in Germany being totally different. And now this person has called themselves the opposition but will spread a mostly pro Kremlin message on tour of Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭Suit of Wolves


    Roger Waters, in trying to defend Russia, refers to something that sounds like the Maydan coup here at 18:35. I'd like to know what that is?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,494 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    I’ve seen enough that tells me most of Russia are complicit in this illegal invasion.


    They are a country of thugs, terrorists and savages.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,984 ✭✭✭Rawr


    As much as I oppose The Russian Federation and their now openly facist aims to try to subjigate everything that takes their fancy, I'm not prepared to condemn every single Russian man, woman or child for this hateful regime.

    I'm basing much of this on readings of history and in particualar the likes of Nazi Germany. A facist minority managed to whip up national fever there to the point where the NSDAP stole power, Hitler essentialy became a King of a technically democratic Weimar Germany and any opposition to all of this was swept away by loyalist paramilitaries & the notion that patriotism and loyalty to Hitler were one in the same. But behind all of that, normal Germans still existed. People who were appalled by what was happening to their country and by the stories of what happening to anyone the state deemed unnacceptable. Some of these people were extremely brave such as Sophie Scholl & The White Rose movement who actually tried to resist the Nazies, often resulting in their very public show trials & deaths.

    Not all of them were as brave as Sophie was, but the normal Germans existed and many did live on with the shame of what their country had done. You could say they were guilty of not doing anything, or not stoping the Nazies when they had the chance, and frankly you'd have a point worthy of debate there, but I can understand their sense of hopelessness in the situation. They were often caught in the middle of a storm where death waited for them if they tried to move.

    I sense that many ordinary Russians (and by that I mean people with intact moral compases who are just trying to get on with life) may find themselves in the same boat as those Germans I just described. They don't want what Putin is bringing them, and would likely just want this war to end…but they may feel that there have no path to effect change. The "elections" are just to rubber stamp Putin & his party. Any move against the state buys you an express ticket to the frontline in Ukraine, or a slow death in the Gulag system. They may just be keeping their heads down, hoping that one day this will all end and that they and their family will make it out in one piece.

    Of course, like with Nazi Germany, the Russian Federation has facist extreemists who do deserve santion and our critism. Be it fully fledged civilian acolites of Putin or the very worst of his armies. These Russians do not deserve understanding and must be made to live with their guilt after all of this.

    I want the Russian Federation to be defeated, and want Ukraine to succeed and survive…but I also want any ordinary Russian still left after all of this to have a shot at a normal life. I live in some hope that this centries-long cycle of stupid from Moscow will eventually end.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23 TheOneDon24


    Does France and the UK having nukes not act as a deterrent against Russia, on top of that Poland has a massive and decent army that could do more than hold its own this is all excluding Germany and the rest of the EU taking a real war footing and getting its **** together and of course full force US intervention.

    I think the threat would be more in the media spaces that reality.

    Imo the Russian army is essentially spent in Ukraine lets be real they cant beat a thrown together rag tag last minute Ukrainian army they would be light work for a well organized equipped force with good use of combined arms.

    The biggest danger from Russian imo would be them losing "too quick" they need to lose with good deniability in a sense we need to give them a good off ramp that they can still hold there head high for there fragile egos i think it would be dangerous to shatter that idea that they are a "big dog" in the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,400 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    Roger Waters lost his marbles several years ago. Piers Morgan is a bloated, self-aggrandising twat.

    That about covers it, I think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,051 ✭✭✭✭josip


    France's nuclear arsenal is more if a deterrent than the UK's because they control it.

    The Ukrainian army might have been rag tag in 2014, but by 2022 it had been uptrained considerably.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭rogber


    Yes a lot of Russians are a disgrace but the prisoner swap showed just a few of the genuine heroic resistance figures, many more of whom are still in jail are already killed. Claiming all Russians are savages or complicit is just idiotic and the same kind of smearing that people often use to demonise whole groups



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 754 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    There’s a spectrum of possibilities


    None > Some > Minority > 50/50 > Majority > Most > All


    Jumping to an extreme on either end as some have done higher up is idiotic but there clearly is more than 50/50 and maybe even a Majority in favour of this war as per lengthy examples in tweet higher up

    Fascism, nationalism, repression and extreme autocracy which 24/7/365 times 25 years now been brainwashing Russians, changes people and societies, and not for the better,

    a population that only had a few brief years of normalcy preceded by 70 years of similar crap, where docility was bred in and critical thinking was bred out

    There is a whole generation born, grew up and now dying knowing nothing but Putin and his ever tightening grip

    Post edited by thatsdaft on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,494 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Spare me the nonsense and wake up to Russia and what it stands for.


    “I hear talk of ordinary Russians’ innocence, but then I see ordinary Russians murdering ordinary Ukrainians. I see ordinary Russian mothers saying goodbye to their ordinary Russian sons and wishing them good luck with their ordinary Russian war crimes. I see ordinary Russians celebrating murder," Landsbergis said.”


    The list went on, with "ordinary Russians" dressing their young children in military uniforms and making cardboard models of tanks for them to take part in events, and "ordinary Russians" lining up in the shape of the letter Z.

    "Ordinary Russia is sick. Healing will be a long and gruelling process which can only start when Russia, not just Putin, is defeated. Without a defeat in Ukraine, Russia will just keep spreading. So about those ‘unfair’ sanctions against ‘ordinary Russians’... Well, anything which slows down Russia’s total war machine will have ordinary Lithuanians’ support," the Lithuanian foreign minister tweeted, concluding the thread with the slogan "Glory to Ukraine".



  • Registered Users Posts: 23 TheOneDon24


    Fairly sure the UK control there own nukes?

    Oh no doubt they ve been trained alot since but they still are completely dependent on support of western nations and lack all of things the likes of the US or Poland or France would have in abundance not the mention the ability to use them in a combined fashion.

    I don't think Russia could compete in a conventional war vs a western nation like France or Poland and definitely not the US either militarily or logistically.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭Suit of Wolves




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,644 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Apparently not the Russian legion but actual UAF

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,400 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    The Maidan Revolution were the protests in Ukraine that led to the ousting of former president Yanukovych. Referring to it as the "Maidan coup" is just repeating Russian propaganda.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    In general, I ignore people I don't agree with. Rog and co are on that list. I won't even look at the video.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,945 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    While the Russian opposition to Putin (what's left of them) might someday be people who can provide better leadership for Russia if the current set of ex KGB/ex Soviet military gangsters ever fall, they should (IMO) not be listened to about fighting Russia/Putin - i.e. ignore them when they are burbling about how the Western sanctions should be restricted to the regime leadership and connected parties, or how the West should really open up the borders wide for any fleeing Russians etc.



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