Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024
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The Meteologix ECM significant weather charts above which incorporates a lot of parameters are very handy initially to highlight the possibility, obviously low resolution but often give a good indication and is about the best indictive chart for thunderstorms out there I reckon….but it can get it wrong or go off a scent and where they show storms might not actually happen there but in the general area but when they show the chance of severe storms close to the time they are more than often right.
There are many charts and index's which can be combined to give an indication , the K index can be useful too as part of a suite.
IMO still very impressive deep layer shear readings and the risk for thunderstorms is high at this stage I would reckon and leaning towards some potent / severe storms also with very heavy localised rainfall, some of the big storms possibly producing hail and downdraughts, possible funnel formation or could we hear of some tornadic activity with all that shear available ??
Very much likely getting close to the mid 20's for a good part of the country especially central counties with increasing high humidity raising the DP into the high teens, humidex giving readings of feeling like 27 or 28C, temps slow to come down into the night, possibly still 19 or 20c in places in the early hours of Mon morning.
Unstable shortwave trough ahead of the front and upper negatively tilted trough all aiding instability.
Personally would expect yellow warnings quite widely and wouldn't be surprised to see Orange level warnings. Spot flooding possible and could hear of a few big leaks into large shop like premises
Charts and positioning will change a bit but good to upload them to see how this develops. Hi Res charts still a bit out of range for the finer details .
Definitely a night to get the cameras ready ( safely ).
From Meteologix
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Looking like a big thunderstorm night tomorrow night. Very possible to see widespread Orange warnings I would think. Rarely do you see Deep Layer shear so strong, and with such a warm moist airmass moving over the warm air from the day across Ireland, looks to get up to the mid 20's and showing temps of 18 to 20c well into early Mon morning with DP's in the high teens. Lower shear available also and convergence zones with forcing evident. The PWAT readings showing possibility of 35mm and the 24 hr precipitation charts reflect that in places but in fact this rain could fall in a very short space of time so spot or local flooding a distinct possibility. Probably hear of steamy roads from the heavy showers. With so much shear and instability ( AROME showing over 1000 J/KG possible ) thunderstorms could be quite potent and a loud noisy night in parts. Would expect CG lightning strikes from this set up with reports of damage.
. AROME also picking up on the possibility of gusts from those thunderstorms so could get quite intense under the storms for short periods of time. Should be all well cleared by around the morning commute except for the far NE .
Anywhere really could get a storm but they do seem to increase in strength passing up over the midlands into the NE ( reflective of Met Eireann's Yellow warning for the country, impossible to pinpoint but tomorrow might have a better idea of areas with the most threat ). Orographic lift in the W and SW might also produce some strong storms and heavy convective showers of rain and hail. The weather looks to travel in a SW to NE direction.
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