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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Gas prices on the march again due to events in Eastern Europe. Hopefully the missiles don't start getting launched in the Arabian Sea or we could end up back in 2022 quite sharpish.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,325 ✭✭✭yagan


    In recent years county councils have been buying some out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Am i the only that thinks if ya keep bailing out every crisis and every shite business venture. And seemly no amount of sovereign debt matters.

    Therell never be a recession.

    Post edited by Mr. teddywinkles on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,940 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    It suits councils yearly budget to rent them out long term from investors . For instance a 2 bed apartment will cost a council 30 or so grand a year .

    To purchase even one changes that 30 to 300k in an instant.

    They don't have the budget to purchase en masse .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,702 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …like anything with debt, it depends what its being used for, if its being used to increase the productive capacity of your economy, creating jobs etc, tis all good, but if its only truly being used to (re)inflate the value of assets such as property, you re probably fcuked, as theres nothing truly backing the debt, you d keep having asset bubbles and busts, rising inequality and rising social unrest…..

    …or maybe it suits a government who at the heart of its economic ideology is to have limited state involvement in meeting citizens needs, preferring more market based approaches in doing so, believing its a far more efficient approach, but actually having little or no evidence to support its beliefs….



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,562 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    The governments ideology is center left paying for everything as long as your not working and if you are then you have the privilege of paying for someone else’s via tax despite not being able to afford it yourself …limited state involvement my arse



  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    Ireland is between a rock and a hard place, adopting the ultra capitalism, every man for himself attitude of the United States while paying lip service to more socialist European policies that focus on citizen wellbeing and social cohesion.

    Having obtained its economic success from acting as a satellite for the United States and taking influence from America, Inc. At the same time, we are European and part of the EU where European ideals are not as gung ho capitalist as in the US. Ireland now has a situation where it has chronic, borderline criminal, under investment in infrastructure, healthcare, housing and education with working people not really getting any benefits from the State that may be more common in other European countries (eg higher child allowance, commensurate unemployment benefit to reflect what a lost salary amounted to) and those not working potentially in receipt of benefits amounting to a gross salary of €20-40k per annum (which is the same as many salaries in this country).

    The government has been given a golden goose from the US and in the same way the gross wealth inequality in the US has lead to a similarly stretched and creaking social harmony, those at the top are creaming it, those at the bottom get more and more handouts, while workers (who are the basis of the economy) suffer. The State needs to recalibrate its social benefits and steer more towards those that actually work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,881 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    What EU countries offer a higher Childrens allowance than Ireland? I'm curious about that. Or is that another stat people use when we include the inflated Irish GDP while also bashing it as inflated and nonsensical?

    Unemployment benefit based on earnings, I agree is totally out of whack. Pay 1mil in taxes for a decade and get the same supports as someone earning 20k (granted in order to facilitate that the higher rate band would need to be increased, or it's set low because the majority earning that don't be out of pocket like most of us)

    I certainly won't argue with your last statement. Why should someone or a couple be less off working 40 hrs a week for a house than some deadbeats who haven't worked a day in their life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    In Germany the rate is €250 per month per child. Due to government support, full time education is free from kindergarten right through to university. Pre-school education costs up to €500 per month as well for full-time creche in a private creche, often it is less than €500 pm for full time creche. Effectively, child benefit pays for creche for people.

    In Ireland creche costs from €800-1400 pm full time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 745 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    German economy has been almost flat for decades now

    Their gdp per capita is now less than the poorest US state of Mississippi and 1/5th of richest

    What you failed to mention is that those on average wages on US do not pay anywhere near the taxes we do, a couple in combined 78K here would be in top 10 percentile of tax payers ffs



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,504 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    It's the under investment in things like electricity grid, water system, housing, transport that will ultimately doom the Irish economy. FFG have no credible plan to keep the US MNC party going.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    If the German economy has been flat well then the metrics to measure economic growth are flawed as the country has really invested well in making the place a nice place to live for its residents, with excellent benefits for families, fantastic infrastructure, a health system that works and revitalisation of towns to make them more liveable with things like pedestrianisation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭downtheroad


    Throwing energy credits and tax breaks to those who don't need it or justify it is awful government policy and fiscally irresponsible.

    The Restaurants Association of Ireland have made up a "National VAT 9 Day" calling for a reduction in the VAT rate for the hospitality industry and are blaming the 13.5% VAT rate for any closures of restaurants or cafes recently, instead of acknowledging that maybe there isn't enough demand for their offering and the market is calling the shots.

    And every newspaper and journalist seems to be supporting their narrative, which will cost around €750m to the state to implement.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Well i agreed with the energy credits due to abnormal circumstances at the time. The rest i agree with. Too much passing the buck to the taxpayer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 292 ✭✭dollylama


    I don't quite understand where the hospitality associations are coming from that they need 9% VAT to survive. It's been shown time and time again that the reduced VAT rates in dining and hospitality do not benefit the consumer.

    A 9% VAT rate would be nice for my small business if only to reduce how much I've to keep aside for revenue in my busy months. But it's 23% .. as it is for 1000's of business up and down the country and we just get on with it.

    Of all business costs to hone in on, VAT is just a strange one. Let them argue for reduced rates, energy grants, late night opening supports, changes to allow easier casual employment... things like that. But VAT? I don't get it



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,945 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    ^^Yes, maybe some of them do need the low VAT rate to survive, but if that is the case, maybe the business is not viable?

    I have always thought similarly; why should one group get an ultra-low preferential VAT rate vs other sectors, where it could be more useful to have workers/energy etc. concentrated in?

    Perhaps as an emergency measure for a crisis that hammers them in particular as Covid certainly did (ending tourism, stopping people gathering in restaurants/bars/cafes etc.) but Covid pandemic and the associated restrictions ended some time ago now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,738 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It's FFG govts that have overseen and developed the MNC investment and jobs.

    FF were the party that dropped our CT rates to 12.5% and triggered the inflow of well paid, high volume jobs, plus the huge tax take we now recieve and have enjoyed for years.

    9 out of every 10 euro paid to the govt in corporation tax is from MNCs.

    There are a lot of areas the govt could do better in, but tbf, high value job creation over the past few decades is not one of them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,702 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …oh so thats why we have so much involvement in major sectors such as the fire(finance, insurance and real estate) sectors in our affairs here, most evident in our property markets, those stupid lefties…..seriously!

    …so lets analysis this shall we……

    what sectors our currently providing the most amount of tax revenue, and our provided with the most amount of state protectionism….

    yup its those lefty corporations again!

    …and how have we been protecting these entities, shur lets keep taxation on wealth and the accumulation of wealth relatively low, lets encourage acts such as dereliction, land hoarding etc etc, by not placing suitable taxation in order to prevent such….

    center left! grow up!



  • Registered Users Posts: 905 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    This is a good illustration of why GDP per capita is not a good measure of the welfare of citizens. Another is Ireland with one of the highest GDP / capita numbers though, of course, the citizens of Ireland are still well off by world standards.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 745 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Ah that must be why so many are trying to come here as refugees (and the busiest thread on this sub is about immigration) skipping over dozens of safe countries like Germany

    /s



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    What you failed to mention is that those on average wages on US do not pay anywhere near the taxes we do, a couple in combined 78K here would be in top 10 percentile of tax payers ffs

    You could lower all tax rates to a tenth of what they are today and this stat would still be true. This stat, if true, is not remotely a barometer for what you're claiming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,562 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    center would be

    • provide basics accommodation not a rated houses (whether new or retrofitted) for life.
    • Health care where if you go public you share a room (just like private patients currently do). And none of this if your lucky enough to be on public system you get your own room.
    • Cutting off benefits for turning down a job on minimum wage regardless of it being more than a 10 min walk or having to use public transport….or god god forbid having to deal with the public

    Current government are left of centre……yes they are not the bat **** crazy lefties like Corbin was in the uk. They are not extreme lefties that want everything taxed and everyone with the same take home pay regardless of whether they work or not. But they are left of centre all the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,702 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …jesus how disconnected are these conservatives, they dont even realise they have a lot of what they truly believe in, i.e. far greater protectionism including state protectionism for wealth, and the accumulation of wealth, significantly low taxes for this accumulation of wealth, including and in particular related to property and land, as this is one of the main methods of accumulating wealth. further public policies in continuing and maintaining this dynamic, including from major institutions such as central banks, with polices such as qe, which was clearly designed to simply re-inflate the value of assets, which are primarily owned by wealth….

    …so what you really wanna do is to maintain a much lower standard of living for lower classes….

    …noting, not providing these classes with a better standard of living significantly increases the likelihood of dysfunctional outcomes some seriously so including, increasing likelihood of serious long term health issues, both physically and mentally, which of course in turn increases pressures in all aspects of our health system, both in the public and private domain….

    …which in turn increases the likelihood of long term unemployment….

    ….which in turn increases the likelihood of criminal outcomes….

    ….which of course the taxpayer ultimately pays for…..

    …by not providing higher rated housing, this clearly exposes us all to the negative environmental impacts from so…

    …and its easy to provide all your needs on minimum wage, especially housing and health care needs etc….

    ..noting most long term unemployed actually struggle with long term physical and mental health issues, which is ultimately is why they are in their situations, but fail to receive adequate health care….

    …noting, cutting off welfare doesnt actually help to resolve such issues, but significantly increases the likelihood of criminal outcomes, and other serious dysfunctions, which again, ends up all being paid for by your friendly taxpayer…..

    …noting, many long term unemployed actually struggle with significant social anxieties, including complex psychological disorders such as asd, but in fact are completely unaware of their issues, therefore have never received suitable supports…..

    …again, you are completely wrong, our current ffg government are clearly center to center right, for the reasons outlined, but yes they do have some what would have been traditional left policies in place, but the bulk are more to the right, you ve no idea what you re talking about…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,562 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    As for the rant on disadvantaged etc there are plenty of middle class families in a worse situation… just drive around and see who is getting full retrofit of houses and who’s not for an example. Your comment on failing to receive adequate health care applies way more to people that don’t have a medical card or doctors card and financially can’t afford to pay.

    government are centre at the best (left of it in my opinion) but no way any bit to the right (except for not wanting stuff nationalised etc.)…. This is creating a vacuum in Irish politics and leaving a door open for the crazy’s on the right. Populism has overtaken common sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 745 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    In the us to be in the top 10 percentile of tax payers one has to earn $168K that’s double of here

    Here a married couple who is a teacher and gardai who can’t afford even the cheapest hovel (nor qualify for a mortgage) in Dublin be easily in top 10 percentile of taxpayers



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭downtheroad


    They haven't a clue and it's just a soundbite.

    VAT reductions should be passed to the consumer. They weren't passed on by the vast majority of the hospitality industry, it was kept by them. And many then had the audacity to raise prices when VAT was restored to 13.5%. And if now it is reduced (which thankfully it won't be) they would again pocket that money for themselves.

    The amount of small business owners I see who don't understand VAT is unreal. They don't ring fence the money and then whinge every 2 months about not having the cash to pay it. People like that cannot run a successful business when they don't understand the fundamentals.

    Too many of thise hospitality based businesses need to be put out to pasture as they clearly aren't viable if they need a slight reduction in VAT to keep them profitable.

    Their focus should instead be on their high overheads like rent, insurance, payroll and ingredients...but all they seem focuses on is VAT.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭Cape Clear


    I always find the various debates around child benefit interesting.

    Just to put the curr byent rate in perspective and talk of an increase next year below are the figures for 2008.

    Child Benefit rates increase by €6 for the first two children and €8 for the third and subsequent children. Rate for first two children will be €166 per month (each) and rate for third and subsequent children is €203 per month (each) (April 2008).

    In 2008/09 a family with 3 children were paid €6,420 in child benefit in 2024 the payment is €5,040.

    We had some hangover from the Celtic Tiger.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭uptherebels


    Yes the government are no bit to the right, yet let vulture funds run free, run every public service into the ground and transfer as much public funds into private hands as they possibly can



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭Thespoofer




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,260 ✭✭✭silliussoddius




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