The decline of SF?

The present coalition is the greatest sign you will get that the establishment parties fear change. That century of sham difference put away in a heartbeat to hold onto power.
They seem to have stemmed the flow this time but when the rejection comes, and it will, it is going to be devastating for one or the other of FF and FG or maybe both.

Didnt see that but are you talking about the housing policy?

If so, I'd say the opposite is true. Removing help to buy is going to drive young voters away from the party, which will further erode their already falling support.

What is the aternative that would make homes more affordable to young people, if SF remove help to buy?

,its of an inteligent electorate capable of choosing what they want

f FF and FG's vote share shows that once there was an alternative their prospects declined, so much so now that they have to combine, conjoin, merge, coalesce or whatever you want to call it, to stay on power.

FG now have the largest support again, according to some polls.

No party in Ireland can form a govt on their own. Its not just a FFG problem.

Their new middle class activist base wont allow that sop thrown to the working class .

The vitriol they are turning against many working class communities now would make a young PD blush.

It's a neoliberal policy adopted by the modern left and being ditched by many on the left across Europe who are bringing in restrictive immigration and asylum laws.

It can happen .

Until it is no longer captured by the well heeled, no.

SF will gladly lose the seats that start campaigning for things they dont believe in

In the membership and party activist base.

The days of the party being full of lads who work on sites etc are gone.

No. It will be FG FF again.

Compared to 20 years ago, the average shinner cumann meeting is a lot more squeezed middle than unemployed. The 'well healed' dont tend to share who they vote for, so Im not sure if the stereotypes you are clinging to there are of any value.

MEP’s ????

Squeezed middle aren't well off, so we are probably talking about two different groups there.

The well off who own property and pay the most income tax arent generally going to vote for their house price to fall and their incomes to be taxed even more.

The squeezed middle will of course look for an alternative, i agree. But I think more and more people have realised that SF dont offer costed alternatives for that cohort anyway.

In any case, overall first preference voting support for SF has dropped from 24.5% in 2020 to 21% today & they have now been overtaken as first choice by FG on 23%.

Harris still seems keen to hold the GE next year, but there must be a strong case for an October election, post budget, while the parties in government are doing well in terms of support.

Remains to be seen.

Given the local results before the GE I will let you bask in complacency and maintain my point. A lot can change and very quickly too. Either way.

Squeezed middle are most of us.

A lot of people in my wider family would not vote for Sinn Fein …. it is all for the same reason …. their ties to the IRA and association in their mind to the Northern Ireland violence …. the REALITY is SF are no longer even close to that era …. MLMcD and others were not even near any of that …. SF has evolved just like FF and FG once did too ….

As it stands … and let's hope it remains so … most Irish want to vote for moderate parties …. thankfully the Trumpist copycats did v badly in the 2024 elections …. however issues that irk the people do need to be addressed …. housing etc …. on one hand and misinfo and social media inspired thuggery needs to be addressed on the other hand ….

SF, FF and FG will for the foreseeable get about a third each give or take of the vote …. FF and FG are centre right and more natural partners …. the rise of another centre left party or the a rise in fortune for the other major centre left party Labour is needed for SF to form a govt …. that makes it more likely that FF and FG will form the next govt ….

Your two gotcha's are not members of SF. One never was and the other was drummed out of the party. That you think this hasn't happened in other parties (or maybe you are willfully ignoring it) is gas.
Party members will say and do the wrong thing and no longer have the whip or support of the party right across politics.
And don't get me started on attempts to influence online. There was never any proof that SF were controlling 'an online army' their attempt to get people to advocate for the party online was open, and you needed to join the party to do it, they weren't sneaky and looking for 'anonymous accounts' to do it, but actual supporters. Given what it was turned into by fearful conspiracy theories (who willfully and hypocritically also ignored the more sinister advocate of 'anonymous accounts) they might re-consider making that call again.

The 'support' that is now looking elsewhere because SF won't support them?
Where has it gone? Oh look FF and FG support has increased in the same time frame.
SF don't want that support as it is not chasing it.

Several of the people above apologised for their tweets/actions like members of all parties have had to do. That's a good thing in my book, are you being selective at all in the apologies you accept and the ones you don't? You also should look into the meaning of 'plenty'.

Believe what you want. That SF policy and leadership do not re-enforce any of this points to the fact that you are perhaps the purveyor of a conspiracy theory yourself. One man's sincerely held beliefs are another's conspiracy theory and all that.
Of course you forget FG endorsement and support for Verona Murphy's toxic views before they too moved away from them officially. Similarly their incubation of ultra conservative people like Lucinda Creighton and her Renua colleagues before parting ways with them.

As I say, you can myopically hold a view and cherrypick, personally I think all parties have rogue members and people who don't tow the party line, what the leadership and policy say is the important thing.

The problem is that SF continue to display a lack of leadership on these issues. Only yesterday, senior party spokespersons were refusing to say that they supported the housing of immigrants in Thornton Hall. The crisis of leadership in SF is real, unfortunately for them, it is only one of the major problems. Without decent leadership at the top, they won't be able to address the hordes of conspiracy theorists in their ranks.

Even their supporters on here dream up crazy CTs about the government.

Ok so, why are right wing beliefs stronger in SF voters compared to all the other main parties? My theory is the influence of a significant cohort within the party that believes in various conspiracy theories such as anti vax, Jews using a lazor from space behind 9/11, the Brits microwaved Catholics, Great replacement theory etc.

I think those who believe those things are floating voters, willing to switch to differing parties if it suits. The rise in support for Independents and FF and FG as they harden stances shows that.
Not worth chasing tbh.

It's 'a lot' now, not 'plenty' anymore.
All very vague really.
And I still don't see the party leadership or policy 'chasing that vote'.

The succeeded in harvesting the CT votes hence their supporters being the biggest believers in that sort of nonsense. They got the Gemma cohort votes by recruiting Browne, Holohan and Violet into the ranks and people like Pa Daly supporting her presendential push. I'd imagine the leadership had some say on who was allowed run for the party and who Pa Daly could publicly support.