Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

We all know how much Trump obsessed about polling, so I'd say he's utterly furious over the last two weeks.

The betting average is only heading one way. (I'm beginning to trust this more than traditional polling!)

Interesting to see them follow each other in parallel, I assume that's RFK's vote going back to Trump over the last few days.

This one is the most interesting and the most pertinent to the Harris campaign.

The historical part. At this stage in 2016, Hilary was +6.3 and we know what happened there. Just because momentum is with Harris, they cannot take the foot off the accelerator at all. There's only 84 days left.

Trump been sued by estate of Isaac Hayes for using his song without permission;

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4823331-family-of-isaac-hayes-sues-trump-for-playing-his-song-at-rallies/

says a sad re-reg

"I posted in a few Trump/ US election threads tgat to defeat Trump you had to get under his skin and pick a nickname or something similar and keep referring to it.

Bullies and name callers in general hate having the same done to them. Tgey go completely off the wall."

That's why 'weird' is especially good; there's no real defence for it. It's entirely subjective and based off a vibe. And then the more you try to not seem weird or overly trying to defend yourself…. makes you seem kinda weird.

I think that's the beauty and simplicity of the "wierd" attack against Donnie and MAGA in general. For one, it's true; the complete lack of a moral compass in MAGAworld has fostered an environment where blatent nazism, televangleists screaming to high-heavens about how Donnie is "Jesus 2.0" and where shooting of puppies somehow became a marketing statement….is wierd.

Also, it's an easy idea to sell to almost the entire electorate. You don't need a history lesson to explain how much MAGA mirrors the NSDAP, you just need to point out how unusual and unhinged the lot of them are.

Finally, it drives them nuts. Their outbursts help sell the idea that they are indeed weird and shouldn't be entrusted with public resposibilty.

That's not how the weird insult is meant to work. It's psychologically much more subtle.

When you pride yourself on been straight up guy/girl been associated with a weird person is uncomfortable - makes you want to distance yourself from that person. It undermines both the self image of the person been called weird and the prospective voter.

It's clever - not the Brutish thuggery that Trump indulges in. The contract is stark.

Did Trump ever even have an edge on the economy? He inherited the economic recovery from Obama and then relaxed some regulations. After that, he seemed intent on riding that wave to reelection. Not a bad plan except that it kind of relied on no crisis popping up, and that's really where he became undone. He cannot lead through any sort of adversity. We see it even now in his reelection bid. His campaign was 'disciplined' when Joe Biden was trailing in every poll. Now it's in disarray just because Harris has closed the gap. Can't handle pressure.

None of these polls really matter all that much at the end of the day. They are all far too volatile. One poll will say one thing and then another will appear in short order to contradict it. Plus we have no proper idea of how these pollsters are collecting their data and how it's being processed.

When Americans go to the polls in November, we'll get a more representative and fuller picture of what they are/were thinking. Right now, there's no real solid indication of what will happen then that can be gathered from polling results.

helps them that corporate media bias leans in favor of Republican economic policy. Go figure, probably half the reason their policies exist, to bake in that free media support.

No, I'd say polls matter quite a bit. Polls are, for example, a big reason why Biden decided to step out of the race. He and/or his donors looked at the numbers and concluded they were bad and only likely to get worse.

Nobody would argue that you'd put your house on an election where there were only a couple of points in it, but it's not an accident that polls have been and remain the foremost empirical way of gauging voter intention. It's a truism to say they're not perfect or that the only poll which really matters is the election, because yeah of course, but they're the best measure we have of which way the wind is blowing, and most probably why there is not only a big public industry around it, but political parties themselves conduct polls internally.

Right now, we can certainly glean this from the polls - the election will be much closer than Trump thought it would be in early July and he is not a happy bunny.

Hope he at least remembered to put his jugs the right way 'round.

The polling data, the momentum for Harris, rallies, positive media commentary is putting pressure on Trump and his campaign, and he doesn't handle it well.

His "condition" is age. There wasn't denial or collusion to conceal it, it was simply a case of determining if it would affect his performance as President, how much by, how much would it affect his standing with voters, and could it cost them the election.

Ultimately it became evident especially over the past year that yes, his age and slowdown had become the primary factor that could put people off voting for him, and would hand Trump the election. It was damn near undeniable after the debate. And so therefore polls were plummeting, donors abandoning, senior Dems publicly telling him he should step down and then the decision was up to him and he chose to not run again, because it was the right thing to do.

But to say he had a condition to which there was active collusion to conceal is just wrong.

His age is the reason he's stepping down. Not any polling data. Coupled with a very bad debate performance where he was clearly tired and not up to the job, the culmination of all the varying factors helped form the sensible decision to step aside. The guy needs to retire, he's done his service.

Once that bad performance was digested, there was really no other option.

Before that Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls anyway.

There's far too much emphasis, traction and credence placed on transient polling results, especially in US politicking, when really they're just a snapshot in time and a very tenuous one at that. For instance Harris and Walz may be looking good today, but next month might tell a different story altogether.