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The decline of FG?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,422 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Personally fine with that. Principle before power. They can carry on in opposition and affect change (and their rise has done that) from there.
    I personally think Harris will become one of the most reviled leaders of FG ever given time. I didn't have any faith in Varadkar when he was hitting the mid 30's in the polls either and predicted he would lead them back to 2020 GE levels. So too will Simon he might even outdo Varadkar.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭pureza


    Isn't the corrollary of that analysis that Mary Lou must be even more reviled ? Ergo it doesn't matter what respective haters of various parties think it's who has the most haters matters vs who has the least in terms of who's detractors have the most sway in blocking a particular party entering government

    Currently only one party has that handicap and it's not FG or FF is it,so the question is what can or is being done about it ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,422 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    ’Currently’ is doing a lot of work there. I was speculating about the ‘future’ .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There is zero evidence of competency among the opposition parties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There won't be a SF-led government.

    FF would much prefer being in coalition with a FG-led government than a SF-led government.

    There is only one way SF get into power after the next election - as a junior partner to FF, with no rotating Taoiseach, and key ministries in FF hands. SF would be given Housing and Health. As no country in the world currently can fix those issues, they would be set up to fail. The danger for the country is that they could spectacularly fail, making everything far far worse.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,422 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So FF would play politics if they got to be a lead party and sod housing and health?

    That tallies with the treatment of minor coalition parties by FF and FG since the state was created



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,437 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I don't know about that, SF managed to successfully keep water charges out of Northern Ireland, the only part of the UK to do so. Now I will say it's a power sharing executive with limited powers but it does show competency. PBP and Solidarity managed were some of the top campaigners for abortion rights and even the current opposition party, Labour, were instrumental in the legislation for marriage equality

    That's just 3 examples off the top of my head! Maybe you have been following FFG religiously for so long that you don't understand competency anymore?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,712 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …but the reality is, nothings gonna truly change in the country unless theres a dramatic change in who is in government, i.e. and that means we d need to take on chance on the opposition…

    …and since theres not gonna be a change in government, there isnt gonna be much changes, if any, particular in relation to our most critical of issues, i.e. health and housing etc….

    …so rock and roll, embrace rising social unrest, and all that comes with that…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,437 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I find a government where SF bow to the will of a right wing party to be highly unlikely. If they improve on their last election result they will be the biggest party in the Dáil so whoever wants to form a govt with them will need to accept the junior coalition role. I think regardless of makeup SF will want control of health and housing to prove that they can be fixed

    With that being said I don't think FFG would be interested in being minority to SF and would rather be in opposition so we could potentially have multiple GE's coming up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Oh, now this is so funny, claiming SF competence on the basis of keeping water charges out of Northern Ireland.

    Let's ask a question here. Why did so many people from Northern Ireland come down South during Covid to get treated? Answer: Because SF were in charge of health in the North, but not in charge of it in the South.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,437 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    If they fixed healthcare and housing crises before the next GE FFG might have a chance. A SF led govt is closer than you might think



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If SF are the biggest party in the Dail, they won't get into government unless they have 40% of the vote and seats and find some independents.

    Neither FF nor FG will go into coalition with SF are junior parties, they would have another election instead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,437 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Yes this is true, the tories did rip the funding from the NHS pre-covid. Not much to do with SF there mind… Do you have any examples of FFG competence?

    Yes, very petty of them but party before country is the best way for FFG I guess



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    SF being the largest party doesnt matter, if they cant form a govt by themselves. Thats the point and its the same as happened in the last GE.

    SF will need FF to form a majority. FF say no to SF but yes to a continuation of the current govt with FG.

    That has always been the most likley outcome and with the drop in support for SF in recent months, is more likley than ever, come a November GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Examples of FFG competence?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

    The seventh best country in the world according to the HDI is Ireland, up seven places in 2022.

    What is interesting is that the HDI Index is based on hard cold facts, such as life expectancy etc. Other indices, based on opinions, have Ireland further down.

    The real reality is that FF and FG have been good for the people of this country, but that the people of this country don't recognise this. It is one thing to be living at home with your parents in Somalia and barely feeding yourself, but another to be living at home with your parents in Ireland, owning a brand new car, going on holidays four times a year, drinking yourself stupid at the weekends, but bemoaning your lot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    All things are possible, but a SF led govt is less likley now than it has been at any point over the past 4 years.

    They have also produced nothing costed and validated to suggest they would fix housing, nor healthcare.

    Getting rid of help to buy will make it harder for young people to buy property, not easier.

    SFs plan to repel investment funds from financing new home schemes will lead to a reduction in new homes being built, not an increase.

    If you want more homes and affordable ones at that, the current govt are a much safer bet than SF.

    Dont get me wrong, there is still a long way to go to deliver the housing stock we need, but i would have much more confidence in the current govt overseeing 40k+ new homes per year than I would SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,712 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …the fundamentals of these issues are extremely complex in nature, these issues are now so seriously, it actually doesnt matter what governments are formed, these problems are effectively unfixable in the short to medium term, but its clearly obvious, whatever ffg come up with, will just keep exasperating these issues…

    …another ffg government is absolutely built in, as theyll obviously back each other until its mathematically impossible to do so, and the only way for an alternative to be formed such as an sf lead government, would mean they would need to receive a significant amount of high preference votes, a near majority, in order to break the bond between ffg, which is clearly not going to happen this time around, and possible may never….

    ….again, theres not going to be a sf government, period…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,690 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    If you want more homes and affordable ones at that, the current govt are a much safer bet than SF.

    Ya mean, if you want more commencements - the majority being rental only, with the 'affordable' balance of houses selling for ~500k, the current govt are a much safer bet than SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    No, I mean all types of home delivery. Without investment funds making large apartment/house complexes viable, the homes wont get built in the first place.

    Whether they are to rent or buy.

    I would like to see the govt incentivise funds to sell more apartments though, I agree.

    But with SF in power, i wouldnt see the homes getting built in the first place. That would save you the trouble of worrying about whether they were rental or saleable…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,712 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …we ve no clue what a sf government would yield, but we have a pretty good idea what ffg will yield….



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭pureza


    Well if you are one of the roughly three quarters of a million mortgage holders in Ireland,would you vote for a party that wants to knock 100's of thousands off the value of your house,knock you into negstive equity and hobble the growth of an asset you're working hard to pay for ?

    Isn't it therein lies the paradox that everything is as simple as you've made out ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,712 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and here lies the problem, financialisation of our property markets has been a monumental failure, this is exactly what ffg have just done, its never ever gonna work, ever!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    FFG 40k homes next year and 32k this year. Cranes everywhere in Dublin and the highest number of commencements since records began nearly 10 years ago.

    SF, no costed plan at all and an attack on the funds that finance all the developments in the first place!....i know which horse I would back in that race.

    Not to mention SF blocking young and first time buyers from getting on the ladder by getting rid of help to buy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,690 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    We've seen what FFG gets us - the current crisis, what we have not seen is what a change of government gets us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,422 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Where did the incumbents ‘cost’ what trying to fix the housing crisis would be?

    Show us the documents?

    When you are finished find the ‘costings’ for getting us a basically functioning health service.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Blind faith theory.... The alternative cant be worse than the incumbent.

    Guess what? The alternative can be a lot worse.

    Record house commencements in 2024 is hardly a crisis btw.

    If you can explain how you think SF will deliver more homes than the current govt, go for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The incumbents have overseen the delivery of 33k last year and commencements this year are at record levels. The evidence is in front of you. Its the new homes built!

    Doesnt get more real than that!

    The healthcare system will take a long time to fix, I agree. But I see no evidence as to why SF would do a better job.

    I do know that getting rid of help to buy would push doctors and nurses further away from owning their own homes though. Whereas the current govt would continue to help first time buyers get on the ladder.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,422 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭pureza


    Do ya know I'm starting to think we'll never see it,with the sh1t poor job SF have been doing convincing voters

    Thats a peculiar question to be asking,wouldn't it be better to ask where can they get all the builders needed or would that expose that SF haven't a hope of getting them either?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,742 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Mostly delivered by private investment funds, so majority of costings are not incurred by the state at all.

    Whats the SF policy again? Drive away the investment funds and have local councils build the homes, at a major cost to the tax payer.

    Not to mention the fact that the councils dont have those construction staff on their books in the first place, which means major delays in construction projects.

    And even if they managed to hire the staff, eventually, thats more cost to the tax payer, with LESS homes getting built at the end of it!

    No thanks, I will stick with option A and FFG when it comes to new home delivery.



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